harrisale Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Cheers to big snows and numb toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Overnight euro has 0.46" of qpf at YYZ as all snow. GFS in the 0.3-0.4" range while the nam looks close to the euro though the gradient across the city is really impressive(5" in Etobicoke with near 10" in Oshawa via instantwxmaps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Overnight euro has 0.46" of qpf at YYZ as all snow. GFS in the 0.3-0.4" range while the nam looks close to the euro though the gradient across the city is really impressive(5" in Etobicoke with near 10" in Oshawa via instantwxmaps). Hoping you're right! Great job by the way in keeping us Ontario posters up to date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 First (and quite possibly final) call: 1" to perhaps 2". Locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 First (and quite possibly final) call: 1" to perhaps 2". Locally. Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows about 3-4" (7-10cm) in the GTA with sfc temps below -1.0C and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -8C during the heaviest rates. However, compared to the 0z Euro its about 0.10 qpf drier. I wouldn't bet more than an inch or two atm as well. Unless models drastically change tonight, its a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Winter Storm watches put in place for all of WNY. They are anticipating up to 6 -12 inches spread out over a long period of time. I don't know what is worse, being in a boring pattern for weeks or just missing a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 First (and quite possibly final) call: 1" to perhaps 2". Locally. I'm with you on this one. 1" in the west end, 2" in the east end, perhaps 2-4" once you get out to Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows about 3-4" (7-10cm) in the GTA with sfc temps below -1.0C and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -8C during the heaviest rates. However, compared to the 0z Euro its about 0.10 qpf drier. I wouldn't bet more than an inch or two atm as well. Unless models drastically change tonight, its a good call. I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8". Worst bust I can remember is December 30, 1997. Foot of snow forecast for Toronto, plows at the ready, and we ended up with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8". Worst bust I can remember is December 30, 1997. Foot of snow forecast for Toronto, plows at the ready, and we ended up with flurries. Wonder what happened with that one. Luckily, I don't remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wonder what happened with that one. Luckily, I don't remember it. If my memory serves me right, Kingston got pounded with a foot of snow from that. Of course a week later was the infamous ice storm of 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8". That was 13 years ago, models have improved significantly.... HIGHLY doubt we're going to see some kind of shift like that at this range. Thinking DAB for my backyard. SSC likely outta the game on this one. Obviously, those farther east will fare better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wonder what happened with that one. Luckily, I don't remember it. I'm sure everyone remembers the February 2011 storm. What a fail that was LOL. And we can't forget about all the media hype for that storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Final call for Toronto: 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That was 13 years ago, models have improved significantly.... HIGHLY doubt we're going to see some kind of shift like that at this range. Thinking DAB for my backyard. SSC likely outta the game on this one. Obviously, those farther east will fare better. In Toronto for the holidays starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm sure everyone remembers the February 2011 storm. What a fail that was LOL. And we can't forget about all the media hype for that storm too. Well, expecting a foot and getting flurries is way worse than expecting 6-10" and getting 5". The non-event in February of 2012 is one of the more recent pure busts I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Fun tidbit: Euro ENS probs from wxbell have TO proper in the 70-80% range for >3" and 0-10% for >6". Based on this, we can see the smaller spread that has developed re amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The latest run of the Canadian model is way east. Looking like the 1-2" call by canuck and myself may turn out to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Did anybody see the 12z NAM? It shows a fair bit of snow for the GTA, possibly exceeding 4". It's the NAM, though, so I'm not completely sold on it. I'm starting to wonder if the GTA is going to be caught off guard again, leading to traffic mayhem on Thursday morning. Environment Canada has yet to issue a special weather statement for the GTA and hasn't even issued a snowfall warning for Kingston and Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Did anybody see the 12z NAM? It shows a fair bit of snow for the GTA, possibly exceeding 4". It's the NAM, though, so I'm not completely sold on it. I'm starting to wonder if the GTA is going to be caught off guard again, leading to traffic mayhem on Thursday morning. Environment Canada has yet to issue a special weather statement for the GTA and hasn't even issued a snowfall warning for Kingston and Ottawa. I wouldn't take one NAM run verbatim. I doubt we will see many 4" reports in the GTA, with the possible exception of the eastern extremes of the city. SREF plumes have been consistent around 2-2.5" inches and I think that's reasonable. WPC is being realistic with the situation. Probability of exceeding 4": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I wouldn't take one NAM run verbatim. I doubt we will see many 4" reports in the GTA, with the possible exception of the eastern extremes of the city. SREF plumes have been consistent around 2-2.5" inches and I think that's reasonable. WPC is being realistic with the situation. Probability of exceeding 4": I completely agree. The NAM almost always overhypes amounts. I do think, though, that Environment Canada should at least issue a special weather statement for Toronto given that even 2" could cause problems on the roads if the salters aren't given the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 My call for Toronto is 3-5" (highest amounts in the east and lowest amounts in the west). The 12z NAM is too high, but the 12z GFS has beefed up amounts from its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's too early for EC to issue a SWS in mid December for up to 10cm. Tomorrow would be the appropriate time to issue it. The earlier you issue a SWS, the more serious it seems. In mid December this is nothing to overhype. I do think there is some "hang time" potential with this set up though. Flurries could linger longer than modelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If this was the first widespread snowfall of the season or hitting during high volume times I could understand, but with this thing hitting hardest overnight I don't see the need to issue an alert Tuesday afternoon for an event Wednesday overnight, especially since models only just really started to up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm going to bump my upper range to 3" (7-8cm). Currently think it's going to unfold as a 2-3/maybe 4 hr burst of snow with the CCB late Wednesday. But we're going to be slotted pretty quickly and that'll preclude amounts from reach 10cm+ imo. Thermals look surprising cold. I'm not seeing much sfc or elevated warmth. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM QPF over 0.50" is nonsense. Don't drink the kool-aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM QPF over 0.50" is nonsense. Don't drink the kool-aid. Agreed. Although my call is for 3-5", I think totals closer to 3" (or possibly 4") will be more likely than 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Agreed. Although my call is for 3-5", I think totals closer to 3" (or possibly 4") will be more likely than 5". Last I checked the Kuchera map was calling for a 14:1 ratio off the NAM. Your range looks ok even with 0.30" QPF if those ratios verify. I'm really liking an aggressive slot with this thing so that's why I'm going conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm going to bump my upper range to 3" (7-8cm). Currently think it's going to unfold as a 2-3/maybe 4 hr burst of snow with the CCB late Wednesday. But we're going to be slotted pretty quickly and that'll preclude amounts from reach 10cm+ imo. Thermals look surprising cold. I'm not seeing much sfc or elevated warmth. Can't complain. I'm with you on that call, with 5" for Snowstorms and blizzardof96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm with you on that call, with 5" for Snowstorms and blizzardof96 Initially, I was thinking east of the city would be the sweet spot. Now though I think some of the higher amounts (aside from the Snowstorms slant-stick sweetspot ) might end up being over the high ground NW of the city, where the deformation zone pivot point is likely to set up. Guelph, Caledon, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM QPF over 0.50" is nonsense. Don't drink the kool-aid. RGEM drinking the kool-aid as well. Little 0.5-0.6" contour north of the 401/407. You will hate me for saying this but i'm actually liking the 3-5" range. The euro has been rock solid with 3"+ amounts and its only more reassuring to have some of the high res models onboard(besides the NAM of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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