mimillman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's probably not the best idea to be hitting the Jack Daniels on a Sunday night... (j/k) I wish I had the excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z GFS keeps hope alive for the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Still something to watch for the 20th period. At least it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z GFS keeps hope alive for the 20th. Looks rather deformed. Without any decent phasing, even partial phasing, the southern stream lacks any instability and is therefore loosely drifting north. In addition, the northern stream is vague and slow due to lack of any Polar jet influence. Another feature to watch is the potential 50/50 Low off the coast of Newfoundland. Ridge positioning in the West looks favourable for an inland runner, but i'm more concerned about timing and phasing. The HP across the Prairies may not be an Arctic high but its in an ideal spot for some cold air to work into this storm. Well atleast it looks better than what the GGEM is showing. Possibility still exists but as of now, nothing real exciting for the Dec 19-21st storm. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 For those looking past the 20th, GFS still has some Christmas entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z GGEM still consistent with its depiction for the Dec 20th storm. No storm as it kills off the southern stream. Just dry cold air for the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 For those looking past the 20th, GFS still has some Christmas entertainment. Quite an impressive polar jet coming down in model land that phases with a true gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Day 15 12z Euro Ensemble mean posted to the New England forum today looks excellent for cold. Huge -EPO ridge and that midlevel pattern with the negative height anomalies centered farther west would probably be more supportive of an active pattern for the subforum if it comes to fruition. Also suppose that with the -NAO hinted, any system cutting toward the OV would be likely only get so far north before transferring energy to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That would be a cool pattern^! Would not be boring by the looks of it. Long ways out... Cold air building back across the continent on the CFS to close the month out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That would be a cool pattern^! Would not be boring by the looks of it. Long ways out... Cold air building back across the continent on the CFS to close the month out. post-46-0-94229800-1418597868.png Always a take it FWIW with the CFSv2, but since other typically more reliable ensemble data is going in a similar direction gives it more credence. That temperature anomaly pattern would be created by a mid/upper pattern similar to what the Euro ens mean I posted shows. More of a -PNA along with a -EPO that would be more favorable for more significant southwest flow/ panhandle hook type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro is a little stronger and NW of the 12z run but a good deal more generous with cold sector precip on the NW side. Head snow swath runs right up the Ohio River. Sfc low gets to sub 1000mb just south of Nashville and transfers after that Tons of QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Liking today's/tonight's models for the system next weekend. Gfs and Euro both consistently showing a solution that would support a moderate swath of snow somewhere across the lower lakes or upper Ohio Valley with a transfer then to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z GGEM still consistent with its depiction for the Dec 20th storm. No storm as it kills off the southern stream. Just dry cold air for the sub-forum. This is interesting to me. The ggem has yet to show anything and we are now 5 days out. Considering the ggem has never been a storm-shy model, you have to wonder if it scores a coupe or falls flat on it's face. On the other end of the scale, looking at the euro ensembles, a few, (but surprising amount) of the members take the storm as far nw as central OH, and the mean looks like it's a little stronger with the inverted trough into WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 An oh valley poster should spinoff a thread for the 20th system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z Euro ensembles definitely came North some with several members tracking the LP area along or North of the Ohio river. A significant part of the ccb gets into S IL,IN, S/C Ohio and parts of SE On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 An oh valley poster should spinoff a thread for the 20th system Here you go. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45133-december-20-21-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ring in the new year with the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ring in the new year with the 12z GFS. f348.gif f360.gif f372.gif f384.gif Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ring in the new year with the 12z GFS. f348.gif f360.gif f372.gif f384.gif And Christmas day too. Wowza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 people are going to lose their minds of the 24th-1st period sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 people are going to lose their minds of the 24th-1st period sucks lol, no. That being said, looks like we're moving into a more favorable wintry pattern in that timeframe. Details very much TBD of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ring in the new year with the 12z GFS. f348.gif f360.gif f372.gif f384.gif That track is a dead ringer for 1/12/1918. Of course the setups are quite a bit different as we don't have the polar vortex phasing in. Gotta get these inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 congrats Pensacola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 congrats Pensacola gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png Yeah them, Biloxi and New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah them, Biloxi and New Orleans Houston gets in on it on the previous frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I love this, trying to track the first storm of the season, and trying to figure out where it winds up., or if it even remains a storm of any significance. That's why I love Winter here at americanwx.com, lots of board activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GEFS are all sharing the same active look during the 24th-1st period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GEFS are all sharing the same active look during the 24th-1st period Which is why the Dec 20th thing, I am not worried about. If I cash in on something great. Usually in these pattern changes though the first system that looks to change things up, ends up being a miss with the second being the hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Now watch the next GFS run come in with 850mb temps of 10*C over Wisconsin and lose the Christmas and New Years wet dreams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Christmas to new years looks nice and winter stormy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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