buckeye Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12zgfs says merry xmas and happy new year to the chicago folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12zgfs says merry xmas and happy new year to the chicago folks P-GFS says I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 P-GFS says I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 P-GFS puts out some good fantasy land porn. Definitely an upgrade over the relatively boring current op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Back to back big dogs in 3 days. I'm in. Then big time cold end of the run comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Concerning the 20th storm, 12z Euro at 120 has the Low down by Brownsville TX and at 144 in NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Sort of interesting to see the GFS NW of the Euro the last few runs regarding the system around the 20th. The 0z Euro ensembles still had several members show an OV track before a transfer to the east coast, so I still think that one could be somewhat interesting (a widespread heavy snow, no, but a swath of moderate snow maybe) depending on when a possible phase occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z euro has too much northern stream interaction as the vort swings through the four corners region. The vort only goes negative along the TN/AL border as opposed to the TX area on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z euro has too much northern stream interaction as the vort swings through the four corners region. The vort only goes negative along the TN/AL border as opposed to the TX area on the GFS. Explain that one to me. I would think earlier stream interaction = earlier phasing = more likely for the storm to go NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z euro has too much northern stream interaction as the vort swings through the four corners region. The vort only goes negative along the TN/AL border as opposed to the TX area on the GFS.Having said that it has ticked more north than recent runs so that's perhaps a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Explain that one to me. I would think earlier stream interaction = earlier phasing = more likely for the storm to go NW. To illustrate my point i'm going to post a euro vorticity map from wxbell. If the mods have a problem, feel free to remove it. Note how far East the ridge axis is over the intermountain west.. this allows the N and S stream features to stay connected by PVA, keeping the S vort positively tilted. Heres the 12z GFS. Note the further west ridge over the intermountain west when compared to the euro. This allows the N stream vort to move slower so wave spacing is heightened and S vort can go neg. PV over the maritimes is also more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Explain that one to me. I would think earlier stream interaction = earlier phasing = more likely for the storm to go NW. I think he's referring to the confluence left behind from the first system. EDIT: Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I've pretty much written off the 20th system for up this way, although it's still not 100% dead. Southern and eastern MW still in the running though. I'm becoming much more interested in the 24/25th storm as both GFS runs, and even the new Euro indicate some big potential around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's interesting to see how different the ECMWF and GFS are regarding the 20th storm. I mean, the difference, one could expect out 144 hours. But it seems to me that the GFS is always the much more progressive player. Kind of a role reversal. Anyone know what the NOGAPS is showing for the 20th just out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's interesting to see how different the ECMWF and GFS are regarding the 20th storm. I mean, the difference, one could expect out 144 hours. But it seems to me that the GFS is always the much more progressive player. Kind of a role reversal. Anyone know what the NOGAPS is showing for the 20th just out of curiosity? Light snow south of I-80. Too warm roughly south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The ECMWF shows some major warming taking place across the Stratosphere in the med-long range. Could this be the ice breaker we've all been waiting for? If it comes to fruition, the potential is there for a major SSW come early January which would lead to a major cold outbreak ~Jan 5th. Still long ways to go, but potential is growing for a widespread cold January across the board. Another key thing to watch is the Pacific. Models redevelop a potent -EPO and coupled with a -AO/NAO, it could lead to frigid temperatures for the entire nation. Our best chance for decent snow IMO would be from Dec 18th to Jan 5th. There after the ridge axis in the West maybe to far East to allow storms to track across the interior. However, if we have a decently strong Polar jet Stream, we can still get a few clippers here and there. The Canadian/GGEM Ensembles develop a poleward NPAC ridge (+PNA) just off the coastline and this sends the PV further south across Hudson Bay. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Light snow south of I-80. Too warm roughly south of I-70.The reason I ask is because if the Euro is more progressive than the NOGAPS, that's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The reason I ask is because if the Euro is more progressive than the NOGAPS, that's a sign. punt the 20th and look forward to the more active 24th through new year period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 punt the 20th and look forward to the more active 24th through new year period Punt the storm that's closer and have faith in something that's farther out? Makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Any word on the 12z ECMWF ensembles for the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Any word on the 12z ECMWF ensembles for the 20th? Was just looking at that. Several members on the NW side of the mean and pretty amped (996mb-1003mb) that have the sfc low moving from southern/central AR up through western KY/southern IN. Even a few take the sfc low through southern IL and then SW of Indy and north of EVV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Well, having questionable at best storms to watch is better than having nothing at all to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Just glancing, both the 12z GFS and Euro EPS control runs look quite fun and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Right before Christmas looks like an important time to watch. EURO ens. control shows a strong low on the 24th. Lot of ridging back across the Pole and into the northeast Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 not a bad signal^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 that it is snorting coke? Yes, that the Euro is snorting coke. I'm sure the Eurozone would be happy to know that their multi-billion dollar project has devolved into a crack whore. And I'm not talking about Greece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 punt the 20th and look forward to the more active 24th through new year periodI am looking towards that period. If the GFS would stop being so damn volatile, I could actually commit to it more than I have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes, that the Euro is snorting coke. I'm sure the Eurozone would be happy to know that their multi-billion dollar project has devolved into a crack whore. And I'm not talking about Greece.Wut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wut. It's a joke. Obviously I'm too much of a nerd I used to live on the east coast. When the NOGAPS was less progressive than the other models, the eastern forums considered it a sign that things were modeled too far south and east, considering the NOGAPS had a strong progressive bias. Probably doesn't apply to the Midwest, but just a thought I wanted to put out there. Feel free to bash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes, that the Euro is snorting coke. I'm sure the Eurozone would be happy to know that their multi-billion dollar project has devolved into a crack whore. And I'm not talking about Greece. It's probably not the best idea to be hitting the Jack Daniels on a Sunday night... (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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