JoMo Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That's what I was thinking. Pretty impressive. And it's not just a "wait until the end kind of deal" either, as the pattern looks to be improving starting somewhere around 12/22-23. I'm digging the look. Yeah, the ridge has been poking in there around the 23rd for the past couple of runs. Probably going to take a few days to build up the cold air at the surface, and then it gets released south and east. I think the big question is how far south and east it makes it and how quickly it makes it there. The Euro does have a bit of a west bias, so it may be dumping it too far west, we'll see I guess. I'm just excited to see cold air showing back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That's what I was thinking. Pretty impressive. And it's not just a "wait until the end kind of deal" either, as the pattern looks to be improving starting somewhere around 12/22-23. I'm digging the look. Hopefully. Just for kicks, I was looking at all the euro members snowfall amounts ending day 15. Several big big dogs on those and only about 9 of them didn't have snowfall here through the end of the run. Lots of them with widespread snows. It's getting better. Last week and further back, there wasn't much to look at as most members didn't have much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That's what I was thinking. Pretty impressive. And it's not just a "wait until the end kind of deal" either, as the pattern looks to be improving starting somewhere around 12/22-23. I'm digging the look. Hopefully. yup....good to go Haven't seen much changing in the current pac patterns to stray me away from a OV transfer to coastal thoughts on the 21st-(ish) system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS looks even better with the storm on the 19th/20th. ULL closing off for a bit over western IL as well laying a nice 3-7" swath from eastern KS up through srn MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS looks even better with the storm on the 19th/20th. ULL closing off over western IL as well After that there is 2 chances for snow, 1 before and the other during/after Christmas. Bottom drops out after that on this run with -20 850's over much of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18Z GFS fits pretty well in all honesty with my mid and long range thoughts when evaluating the pattern and comps I have been using for the end of October into November timeframe...details up for grabs....but overall patterns jive pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS looks even better with the storm on the 19th/20th. ULL closing off for a bit over western IL as well laying a nice 3-7" swath from eastern KS up through srn MI Did you see the 18z parallel GFS? lol...I was hoping it would do away with those kind of shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Things are starting to look better this upcoming week, and then they really improve Christmas week. We could be looking at some minor lake effect snow events this upcoming week if we get enough cold air pulled down after the Tuesday cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 00z GFS still looks decent for the storm around the 20th (not as good as 18z though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 0z PGFS still with a weak low in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Not terribly optimistic about the system on the 20th as far as significant snowfall, as the flow is still a bit too progressive. Getting a truly wound-up storm with a decent trowal (something we didn't have the past 3 seasons aside from 2/26/13) is probably out of the question, if nothing else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 20th system looking more and more like a dud outside a stripe of DAB to 1" across the far southern portions of our subforum pattern change towards the new year will certainly lead to a more active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 20th system looking more and more like a dud outside a stripe of DAB to 1" across the far southern portions of our subforum pattern change towards the new year will certainly lead to a more active pattern 00z euro a bit more bullish with a swath of accum snow across southern IN, OH and into the northeast. GFS came south and weaker, and actually lines up with the euro. The ggem sees absolutely nothing in that timeframe, (which is telling to me). I'm still agreeing with you on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 SSW potential this winter is still there, but is it dwindling? Research by Sam Lillo, a meteorologist at CIMMS suggests that we are entering a climatologically unfavorable period in MQI (QBO index) phase space for SSWs. This image shows approximately where we are now in the MQI phase space. I say approximately because it's technically a forecast from a few months ago, but it should be close enough: This next image he recently shared on Twitter. Note the infrequency of SSWs when the MQI is in its current state. This is at odds with prevailing thought that pretty much all negative QBO's are equally favorable. Superimpose the above image here and you'll see the problem. Finally, this image from AER's Judah Cohen's arctic oscillation blog shows the current unfavorable state of vertical wave activity flux (WAFz). While he states that it should return to at least climatologically normal strength, I suppose the question is whether that will be enough in the face of the unfavorable QBO/MQI state. Not exactly my areas of expertise here, but thought I'd share some morning SSW thoughts since I had them. FYI, here is Dr. Cohen's blog https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation And Sam Lillo's MQI page http://weather.ou.edu/~splillo/mqi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Warm up is and has been overrated. By weeks end trend toward colder will be underway right on schedule as surmised by most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Warm up is and has been overrated. By weeks end trend toward colder will be underway right on schedule as surmised by most here. Agree. Most see that there is no snow outside and its not terribly cold, so they think mild...but December so far has been mostly seasonal in temps. All the way back to our mid-Nov cold/snowy spell, there were hints lurking of a possible major December torch....the CFS had a downright inferno for December at its supposedly most reliable state (near the last few days of the previous month, ie Nov 28-30 or so). So this llllong discussed potential is going to end up being 3-4 days of mild air, nowhere close to records of any kind in the southern Lakes....and in fact....this is very NORMAL for most Decembers to have such a period. It feels good to just get this damn thing over with....the cold will be returning, seasonable at first near Christmas, then potentially well below normal towards New Years...and it looks to get unsettled. We just have to start synching up some snow threats with the cold, and we are good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 whatever you got to tell yourselves, it's going to be 50 today and most will finnish winter's second best month with under 1" of snow it really couldn't have been much worse for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Interesting how the Euro ensembles were too far south in the medium range with this upcoming upper Midwest system (mean images below). General idea was somewhat right, but the details were messy. The op run had some hits and misses along the way. Food for thought, for the future maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 whatever you got to tell yourselves, it's going to be 50 today and most will finnish winter's second best month with under 1" of snow it really couldn't have been much worse for snow lovers 3rd best winter month here, in terms of snowfall and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 whatever you got to tell yourselves, it's going to be 50 today and most will finnish winter's second best month with under 1" of snow it really couldn't have been much worse for snow lovers lol. The comments werent about snow...they were about temps....and the torch that some thought was going to be so impressive at one time is NOT going to happen. It has sucked that there has been almost no snow in Dec so far....but with half the month to go and a turn to colder and unsettled weather, I dont think many, let alone most, will be finishing Dec with under 1 inch of snow. December is winters 3rd best month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Sharper wave on the 12z GFS at 120, but an uglier blocky type ridge just SW of James Bay too. May come north with the pre-Christmas event a bit but there's definitely potential for it to get sheared off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Gulf coast scraper. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Gulf coast scraper. Take it to the bank. gulf coast snowstorm.gif +1, still think there is potential for this one, more so down your way could tell earlier on in the run it would come north given the sharper look to the wave, neutral tilt over NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 gfs comes in amped and north, euro weaker south, ggem nada..... I'm starting to get interested....just a bit, but not ready to jump off Alek's train to zzzzzz solution just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ended up coming north. Really thread the needley with temps cold enough for snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ended up coming north. Really thread the needley with temps cold enough for snow though. 12z gem in and still says nada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 whatever you got to tell yourselves, it's going to be 50 today and most will finnish winter's second best month with under 1" of snow it really couldn't have been much worse for snow lovers I really was not referring to snow. Has been dead on the snow end. Of course, it's only mid month and a 10 inch snowfall on December 30 with a pattern flip to cold and white changes everyone's perspective. Just sayin' Would not be stunned when it all sorts it ends up average with regards to temps. and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 the 21st-ish system still seems very much on the table imo I still like the concept of an OV transfer to Coastal....my big questions regarding any wintery precip is how will the air mass react after the 16th-17th system rolls through...also, wrt to the transfer...how fast does it happen and would it allow for some moisture to hang back as some cooler air continues to bleed in for the OV folks. Fortunately the 16th/17th system at least exists and will already have the ball rolling in terms of cooler temps bleeding in. If the 20th system can continue to be pushed back by another 12 hours or so, the timing will work better with phasing imo ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 fwiw the para gfs looks a lot like last nights euro, (southern OH and IN snows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ended up coming north. Really thread the needley with temps cold enough for snow though. The 0z Euro ensembles look somewhat interesting as well with a cluster of tracks along the ohio river before redevelopment along the east coast. Med range NW trends have been a recurring theme lately so this has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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