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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

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Regardless of what the storm on the 20th does, the GFS has been steadfast on clipper/Les type look right on Christmas Eve/Day. So far out but has to make you feel decent that wintry times are ahead!

 

Thus why I only selected Green Bay and Detroit to have a White Christmas in the other thread...

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I'm not convinced by the looks of the MJO this round of winter will be here for long. The short term prospects are looking action packed.

Hope it lasts. A lot of mets said Dec would be by far the mildest month of winter. Plus, we are heading deeper into winter anyway...the averages slowly keep dropping. Not that torches or boring spells cant or wont happen, but for at least snow prospects, hopefully good times are here to stay!

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Eye candy...

Regarding the eye candy... The 12z ECMWF (with snow plot, posted by KokomoWX) has a 500mb vorticity max that tracks from Lubbock to Columbus OH at hour 216, and seems to phase with some cold air. 850mb temps drop to -2C in Ohio at 216 hours. In all likelihood, the forecast of this disturbance won't be that accurate, so we can't really count on anything for the Ohio Valley. It reminds me some of upper level features of December 25, 2002, when Toledo got heavy snow at about 4:00AM.

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/12_25_2002_00z_500_vort.png

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GFS seemed clunky for a good chunk of the run....but at least it was a fun one to watch if nothing else! 

 

It sure was in hurry to kick out that SW trough on this run around the H120....that seemed to set the tone moving forward imo...

 

There is a lot to sort out timing wise as we get into the 20th and beyond...

 

at least it looks promising to start seeing some flakes fly in parts of the upper Lakes early next week...get a little powder back on the ground up north

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The Monday/Tuesday system here looking good. Looks like temps aloft will crash on Monday afternoon thus changing rain to snow fairly quickly. GFS has the heaviest snow west of the TC, but the Parallel and Euro have it thru the metro. MPX calling for possible 3-6" snowfall at this point. Either way, looks like a fresh snowpack here which will hopefully help others downstream in the near future.

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Alek looking good on this one.  Ensembles are far weaker, further south and east and OTS.   

 

NEXT

 

Even a blind squirrel...

 

But it's still 6+ days away. Too early to give up. Granted I'm talking about some massive region-wide snowstorm, but someone in the sub-forum has a chance at seeing some snow with this system IMO. We shall see.

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Yeah, the 12z Euro ensemble mean looked great. Not a lot of spread on that ridge placement across Alaska, that's a 360 hour mean showing up that strongly. 

 

That's what I was thinking. Pretty impressive. And it's not just a "wait until the end kind of deal" either, as the pattern looks to be improving starting somewhere around 12/22-23. I'm digging the look.

 

Lock it in?

 

Hopefully.

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