snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Thanks. I'm hoping we get at least one legitimate threat pans out (we'll define that as over 4" of snow somewhere in the subforum other than the UP or northern WI...no offense to our posters there, but that wouldn't do any good to the rest of us and would probably serve to just annoy people, although I do hope everyone gets snow at some point) so I don't appear too crazy lol. The 12z GFS and 0z Euro at least showed something around the 20th, but I'm sure that will come and go from the models for another few days. 12z GGEM shows it too but a little farther south which at this point is a good place for it. At least we got a storm to keep an eye on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Great write up, OHWeather. This is the reason why I hang around here... someone always comes along, and helps to make everything understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z Euro has a storm too for the 20th tracking like the GGEM but correct me if i'm wrong it appears to be closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 incredible lack of deep cold, we are a loooong way from a decent pattern for widespread snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 incredible lack of deep cold, we are a loooong way from a decent pattern for widespread snow Yeah because a 240 euro OP prog is going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah because a 240 euro OP prog is going to verify.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah because a 240 euro OP prog is going to verify. I dunno if I agree with Alek on the snow part....but either way these aren't really arctic intrusions on the docket for the next week as modeled now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I dunno if I agree with Alek on the snow part....but either way these aren't really arctic intrusions on the docket for the next week as modeled now.... H132.png The extended certainly looks to get more active with seasonable temps in our region. Arctic cold? Nope. But its not necessarily needed. No guarentees but its better than boring and cold. And at the end of the day, all most care about is snow, so whatever pattern produces it is good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 12z Euro would be the worst case scenario with no northern stream involvement with the mid-week system next week or the system around the 20th. The ensembles look a bit cooler and several of them (probably 10-15, it's hard to tell for sure on the spaghetti plots) close off a sub 546dm 500mb low over the Ohio Valley around 240 hours...which would probably be ok for some of us. The 12z GFS and Canadian appeared to almost show a poor man's omega block over the Rockies/Plains in the day 9-10 timeframe and hence looked a little more interesting with the possible system around day 10, while the Euro just has a large ridge over the Rockies and a polar jet displaced well to the north. So, it's 10 days out and obviously a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Not that this solution should be taken anymore seriously than the 12z Euro, but just to prove that I'm not insane in thinking we should at least watch around the 20th. It would probably be better if the shortwave that goes by ahead of this system brings in just a little more cooler air, but this is workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 brutal look for cold/snow lovers, pretty lame look for us interesting weather lovers as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 OHweather's and Alek's posts are a perfect example of how 3 day or 7 day means (or any other length of time) can be misleading. Day 10 Euro implies a nice storm but it hardly shows up on the ECMWF 7-10 day height anomalies because of the relatively high heights preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 OHweather's and Alek's posts are a perfect example of how 3 day or 7 day means (or any other length of time) can be misleading. Day 10 Euro implies a nice storm but it hardly shows up on the ECMWF 7-10 day height anomalies because of the relatively high heights preceding it. hot tip: punt the 20th event it's going to scoot harmlessly along the gulf states and ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 hot tip: punt the 20th event it's going to scoot harmless along the gulf states and ots Why punt? The best model has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I wouldn't shock me if the 20th system slows a day or so....models will be playing catch up a bit....hot mess in the pacific... I don't envision any type of cutter given the setup....but given the pac jet laxing and buckling as it is I don't see a total swing and miss here...whether or not there is enough cold air to work with will come down to timing as I alluded to in the first line signs of a weak STJ involvement would also lead me to believe a coastal transfer type scenario would be in play with the pull and tug between the weak buckling and weak jet involvement....not too mention most models leaning on some form of closed-off ness I'm not arguing with or against anyone....just sharing my thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro will still have the 20th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro will still have the 20th storm. It does. Good chunk of MO does well enough...as does the southern 1/2's of IL, IN, and OH. There's some ensemble support to boot, but we'll see. Long ways out still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 it's already trending towards what i said would happen from the 0z run this is a non-starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Pretty good signal on the 12z Euro ensembles for the 12/20-21 system. Typical spread at this range, but definitely enough "hits". After that, pattern gets potentially sexy. Though, it's a bit of change from the 0z ensembles (west coast ridging moved a bit further west this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Pretty good signal on the 12z Euro ensembles for the 12/20-21 system. Typical spread at this range, but definitely enough "hits". After that, pattern gets potentially sexy. Though, it's a bit of change from the 0z ensembles (west coast ridging moved a bit further west this run). I like where the ridge sets up later on this run, much better position for big systems. Your panhandle hook type systems, which is something we haven't had in quite a while. Of course this is reading deeply into the ensembles but at least for once there is a positive signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nice to see cold weather pattern is progressing in the right direction in the models/ensembles. Pacific/GOA is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I like where the ridge sets up later on this run, much better position for big systems. Your panhandle hook type systems, which is something we haven't had in quite a while. Of course this is reading deeply into the ensembles but at least for once there is a positive signal there. Do you (or anyone) remember how many of last years snowstorms were actually panhandle hooks? Im sure the winter runs together as one big blur of historic snow for some, and I can remember the sensible weather details like yesterday, but I rarely remember what kind of storms they actually were if they arent clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nice to see cold weather pattern is progressing in the right direction in the models/ensembles. Pacific/GOA is looking better. Amen to that. This boring stretch is almost over I think, big storm or not. We live in the Great Lakes. Many possible ways to get snow. Do not get me wrong I would love a big snowstorm, but there is months to worry about that. RIght now, lets just work on a White Christmas. When I was younger I always viewed winter as just hoping to get a White Christmas then worrying about the big storms after New years. I think a part of that mindset is its so busy during the Christmas season, theres so much going on...that there isnt the time to dedicate to storms like there is in Jan or Feb. Maybe another part is because during my teen years in the '90s, January was what it was all about....we rarely had a snowy December (then 2000 hit and we have had many snowy Decembers since). But at this point I am just thrilled to see not only a colder patter settle in in the longrange but also an unsettled one. there will surely be haves and have nots by New Years...just have to hope we are a have lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Do you (or anyone) remember how many of last years snowstorms were actually panhandle hooks? Im sure the winter runs together as one big blur of historic snow for some, and I can remember the sensible weather details like yesterday, but I rarely remember what kind of storms they actually were if they arent clippers. 3/12/14 was close. 2/5/14 was a hybrid hooker/gulf low kerfuffle. 2/1/14 I guess was sort of a hooker, but extremely strung out with a positive-tilt trough. 12/13/13 and 1/1/14 were sort of/kind of hookers also (1/1/14 more of hybrid gulf low as well). Last season was full of "mutant" storms, the main theme being that none of them were particularly wound-up/moist storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Do you (or anyone) remember how many of last years snowstorms were actually panhandle hooks? Im sure the winter runs together as one big blur of historic snow for some, and I can remember the sensible weather details like yesterday, but I rarely remember what kind of storms they actually were if they arent clippers. WPC has storm summaries here (link is for 2014, but you can get prior years at the bottom): http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/winter_storm_summaries.shtml On another note, today's Euro weeklies look good for weeks 3 and 4...a continuation of the regular Euro ensembles at the end of their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 WPC has storm summaries here (link is for 2014, but you can get prior years at the bottom): http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/winter_storm_summaries.shtml On another note, today's Euro weeklies look good for weeks 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 WPC has storm summaries here (link is for 2014, but you can get prior years at the bottom): http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/winter_storm_summaries.shtml On another note, today's Euro weeklies look good for weeks 3 and 4...a continuation of the regular Euro ensembles at the end of their run. Cool link! Thanks CW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Amen to that. This boring stretch is almost over I think, big storm or not. We live in the Great Lakes. Many possible ways to get snow. Do not get me wrong I would love a big snowstorm, but there is months to worry about that. RIght now, lets just work on a White Christmas. When I was younger I always viewed winter as just hoping to get a White Christmas then worrying about the big storms after New years. I think a part of that mindset is its so busy during the Christmas season, theres so much going on...that there isnt the time to dedicate to storms like there is in Jan or Feb. Maybe another part is because during my teen years in the '90s, January was what it was all about....we rarely had a snowy December (then 2000 hit and we have had many snowy Decembers since). But at this point I am just thrilled to see not only a colder patter settle in in the longrange but also an unsettled one. there will surely be haves and have nots by New Years...just have to hope we are a have lol While I love big storms at this point I would much rather just get into a prolonged cold and snowy pattern. I love a deep snow pack with lots of refresher systems. I just love seeing snow falling from the sky. I know many here hate the nickel and dime stuff but I'm sure more like you. I'll take them anytime .. well except July I know a big storm will eventually come as they normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 While I love big storms at this point I would much rather just get into a prolonged cold and snowy pattern. I love a deep snow pack with lots of refresher systems. I just love seeing snow falling from the sky. I know many here hate the nickel and dime stuff but I'm sure more like you. I'll take them anytime .. well except July I know a big storm will eventually come as they normally do. I agree. The clippers tend to lock in the cold. Plus, I get lots of lake enhancement from them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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