Harry Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If you are nw of Columbus there is very little to get excited by with a -nao unless it is a very weak -nao. That usually amounts to misses to the se for most nw of Columbus.. Just give me the -EPO and keep the AO/NAO as close to neutral as possible. Reminds me of the early progs of the #santabomb. Indiana gets absolutely raked, just to get the LAF crew crooning. The website i use uses 10-1 ratios and it has them in the bullseye with 15+... 12+ extends up into all of southern and se Michigan up to the thumb and back down to Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Euro and Gem are sweet for most of this sub forum. However for us up here with a PNA ridge forming with it's axis over the west coast, far eastern Pacific coupled with the -EPO developing over the Gufl of Alaska we should see just cold temps and the storm tack to our SE. Now with the AO going neutral to negative and with a -NAO possibly developing we should see our coldest temps in the last week of Jan. To Chitown Storm and Brewers welcome to the frozen tundra. Your friends will be waving to us soon as they get heavy snows, but we will be waving back come the end of Feb into March. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro fantasies are nice, but at some point you have to get the real thing and pictures don't do it anymore............ if you look at the telleconections this make complete sense IMO...sorrrry for my spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Because we haven't had much really big to talk about.... The Euro snowfall maps off the EuroWX site using a modified Kurchea (sp) method shows 2 feet of snow very near LAF....Call me a I'll gladly wear it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Euro and Gem are sweet for most of this sub forum. However for us up here with a PNA ridge forming with it's axis over the west coast, far eastern Pacific coupled with the -EPO developing over the Gufl of Alaska we should see just cold temps and the storm tack to our SE. Now with the AO going neutral to negative and with a -NAO possibly developing we should see our coldest temps in the last week of Jan. To Chitown Storm and Brewers welcome to the frozen tundra. Your friends will be waving to us soon as they get heavy snows, but we will be waving back come the end of Feb into March. LOL Nice, concise analysis. Oh, and you can wave at us in March as long as we get some love until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Zzzzzz Lamest winter in a while Thanks for the zzzzzz's yesterday. I knew that would trigger something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Thanks for the zzzzzz's yesterday. I knew that would trigger something to track. meh, just like all the fantasy range warmth, these fantasy range big dogs always morph into turds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Best fantasy land snowstorm of the winter for LAF. 0z EPS don't completely hate the idea. Still, it's way out there in time and subject to change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If you are nw of Columbus there is very little to get excited by with a -nao unless it is a very weak -nao. That usually amounts to misses to the se for most nw of Columbus.. Just give me the -EPO and keep the AO/NAO as close to neutral as possible.!! Well depending on the positioning of the -NAO, you can also get hard lakes cutters and MSP specials (see Christmas 2009 storm)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 And lol at the 00z Euro... Alek is right this time (it's pretty much been like that since GHD 2011) with these southern stream shortwaves out of the SW. If they don't completely disappear, they turn out to be these strung out mutant storms that don't really produce signifcant frozen precip anywhere. Let's get it into 48hrs before I get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro fantasies are nice, but at some point you have to get the real thing and pictures don't do it anymore............ Exactly!!! Remember this past Thanksgiving Weekend Euro 9-10 day fantasy storm: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44802-winter-2014-15-medlong-range-discussion/?p=3135846 I really wish I could stop looking at the models past 120 hours!! But I won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Best fantasy land snowstorm of the winter for LAF. 0z EPS don't completely hate the idea. Still, it's way out there in time and subject to change many times. eps 204.png I think today I'll celebrate a glass half full. But no matter what happens, there is going to be some crazy ass cold coming in. I forget which model showed it, but one of the 00z has -36 850's just north of the U.P. As far as storminess, I wouldn't trust any model. Most of the indices are going to be close to neutral territory, no real clear signal. The question is whether the northern stream bullies or the southern stream can hold it's own. Past recent history suggests to bet against any significant phasing....but who knows, eventually that has to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Euro and Gem are sweet for most of this sub forum. However for us up here with a PNA ridge forming with it's axis over the west coast, far eastern Pacific coupled with the -EPO developing over the Gufl of Alaska we should see just cold temps and the storm tack to our SE. Now with the AO going neutral to negative and with a -NAO possibly developing we should see our coldest temps in the last week of Jan. To Chitown Storm and Brewers welcome to the frozen tundra. Your friends will be waving to us soon as they get heavy snows, but we will be waving back come the end of Feb into March. LOL I'm fully prepared to start seeing some big dogs to the south of us this time of winter. In fact it's a little out of the norm that it hasn't happened yet. I remember last winter seeing WSW up here in late March, April and even early May if I remember correctly. It will take a while to get used to mid winter lulls though. This time last year MSP had about 20" of snow and ended just shy of 70". So yeah, back-loaded winters for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If you are nw of Columbus there is very little to get excited by with a -nao unless it is a very weak -nao. That usually amounts to misses to the se for most nw of Columbus.. Just give me the -EPO and keep the AO/NAO as close to neutral as possible. you're looking good then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well depending on the positioning of the -NAO, you can also get hard lakes cutters and MSP specials (see Christmas 2009 storm)... Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms. I will see if he still has that data. If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1. It was something he posted before he retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Because we haven't had much really big to talk about.... The Euro snowfall maps off the EuroWX site using a modified Kurchea (sp) method shows 2 feet of snow very near LAF....Call me a I'll gladly wear it!!! Unfortunately what's been seen can't be unseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Unfortunately what's been seen can't be unseen. 12z dream crusher is only a few hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The cold at the end of the Euro is pretty darn impressive. It's not just located in eastern Canada with warm pacific air flooding western Canada, this arctic air is is over a much larger area and look at the connection and origin of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 zzzzzz we did that garbage last winter...so boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS about 2,000 miles east of the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS about 2,000 miles east of the 0z Euro You mean the new GFS that is statistically scoring worse than the old GFS? Yeah that is probably the right horse to ride at this junction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro going to be a lot different than the 00z run in regards to the fantasy land storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro going to be a lot different than the 00z run in regards to the fantasy land storm. The ridging out in front of the system is weaker due to the system over Quebec, so yes this will be further south and probably less amplified. Still a storm dropping into the southwest though, which is the key component to this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You mean the new GFS that is statistically scoring worse than the old GFS? Yeah that is probably the right horse to ride at this junction ....hmmm looks like the euro went towards the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 The ridging out in front of the system is weaker due to the system over Quebec, so yes this will be further south and probably less amplified. Still a storm dropping into the southwest though, which is the key component to this potential. Yeah, totally different look in Canada with troughiness there at 192, unlike the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 not sure what's more comical, the flip flopping solutions or the fact that the storm never emerges out of the 192+ hour timeframe, for what has seemed like the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 ....hmmm looks like the euro went towards the gfs BTW, what did "Oh Canada" do at 12z? I didn't see any comments on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 ....hmmm looks like the euro went towards the gfs Not really, the Euro and the GFS evolve completely different compared to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 not sure what's more comical, the flip flopping solutions or the fact that the storm never emerges out of the 192+ hour timeframe, for what has seemed like the last few days. Ahhh, the good 'ole days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 BTW, what did "Oh Canada" do at 12z? I didn't see any comments on it. Seems like it hasn't come in out to 240 on the free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.