snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This winter is what it is. Any s/w that emerges from the Sw amplifies and cuts or gets shredded out. Pretty much at a crossroads attm. Could end up being bad (~30"), average/decent (40-50"), or good (50"+) but the deeper we go into January with nothing the more unlikely that latter outcome is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 fwiw, the new gfs is the main one now, god help us all I really miss the ngm, it was kinda like the eta's special lil bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 LOT: LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEST COAST RIDGING. AFTER SOME MORE ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME MINOR UNDULATIONS IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30...THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS A TRANSITION BACK TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY MORE CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS. Looks like a one day break above the freezing mark around these parts. Then back to cold and nickel and diming. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 just read a new post on DT's facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 LOT: LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEST COAST RIDGING. AFTER SOME MORE ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME MINOR UNDULATIONS IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30...THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS A TRANSITION BACK TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY MORE CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS. Looks like a one day break above the freezing mark around these parts. Then back to cold and nickel and diming. Fine by me. me too. Could be a very clippery winter. Still think a biggie will hit some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looking good on the 12z Euro EPS mean today, especially in the cold department. Most of the subforum doesn't necessarily need a -AO and -NAO, as a favorable Pacific pattern (-EPO) is more important for cold air delivery as we saw last winter and this month. But this is the first time this winter an improved pattern is being modeled in the Atlantic and Arctic. Gotta like chances to at least get something out of that pattern being modeled on the EPS, even if it's just an active clipper pattern and LES til the lakes freeze. This was posted on the NE forum so I'm guessing I can post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 just read a new post on DT's facebookDon't tell me he's punting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 fwiw, the new gfs is the main one now, god help us all I'm going to be leaning more towards the Euro and even GGEM in the medium / long range from what I have seen from the PGFS so far I don't trust it at all yet and have seen it blow some storms bad in the med / long range so far. Seems to be good in the 72-96h range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looking good on the 12z Euro EPS mean today, especially in the cold department. Most of the subforum doesn't necessarily need a -AO and -NAO, as a favorable Pacific pattern (-EPO) is more important for cold air delivery as we saw last winter and this month. But this is the first time this winter an improved pattern is being modeled in the Atlantic and Arctic. Gotta like chances to at least get something out of that pattern being modeled on the EPS, even if it's just an active clipper pattern and LES til the lakes freeze. This was posted on the NE forum so I'm guessing I can post it here. just want to say, a long time poster, quiet as i may be....was a weather nerd at Ball State, and now own my own company, GIS based but all relevant to maps/GPS/locations, more than most...... my point, is a thank you for taking time and merging talking with the forum..... thanks --- Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Excellent post. We are in the same boat in Detroit. Though January snowfall sits at 9.4" and norm for the month is 12.5", so i wouldnt say above normal snow is a lock but rather very likely. Nov & Jan are much colder than normal with above normal snow, erase December and its a good winter actually . Could be an excellent year for duration of snowcover too, if we keep avoding torches and your optimism for the rest of winter pans out. Nowhere near last winter of course but better than normal. Saturday should be interesting to see if we can avoid 40F. In 140 years of record, only 8 times has Detroit not seen a 40F+ temp in January. In 141 years of record, only 10 times has Chicago not seen a 40F+ temp in January. I think it's still possible to tag 40 in Chicago on Saturday with the progged 925 mb temps. Will be interesting to see if ORD stays below, but MDW hits 40. Gonna depend on how much the snow cover holds back the warming. Last year on the warmest days in mid January (12th: 44 deg & 13th: 45 deg) the snow cover was melted out at ORD. It's a big if to look out that far in advance and talk about a rare feat like not reaching 40 in January, especially since ens means don't show the finer day to day details, but if we can avoid 40 Saturday, I'd place decent odds on this month achieving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 My call on C/W is failing hard , starting to feel like last year with all the "warmth is there but never really there" ideas. That exceptionally strong +PDO seems to be overwhelming the pattern to a degree right now, which is to be expected. When we looked at this winter in the fall, the composite we used was a +PDO weak +ENSO phase, and the mean for those winters favors a -EPO, so you're right, the trends aren't surprising. The SAI -AO connection has again largely failed to produce so far this winter, but given the tendency for eastern troughing in the composite independent of whether Arctic/Atlantic blocking occurred, a very mild winter was always unlikely. December was concerning but is now looking like the exception to the overall pattern, unless things really flip 180 on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 D7 threat? EURO had it and lost it, although it was more D8-9. OP GFS is suppressed but a number of the GEFs members have some sort of southern stream system impacting the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z EPS has a pretty cold looking 11-15 day for most of the CONUS. Kinda an impressive signal for that long of a lead. 6-10 day anomalies are normal to cool. Hard to pick out specific storm threats in the extended, but with AK ridging have to believe clippers (or miller b's) would be the predominant storm type. Can't rule out something from the southern stream either, but caveat will be how far west (or east) the ridging out west sets up shop. Well, I guess I pretty re-hashed what Ricky said ...but, regardless, chances for some snow for many will be on the uptick soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 D7 threat? EURO had it and lost it, although it was more D8-9. OP GFS is suppressed but a number of the GEFs members have some sort of southern stream system impacting the area 12z EPS members with that system: some hits, some whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z EPS members with that system: some hits, some whiffs. Looks like more whiffs though (weatherbell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like more whiffs though (weatherbell) It is a mix of both, and using the mean on a day 9 isn't exactly good for showing anything. Too much parody at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Torch cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It is a mix of both, and using the mean on a day 9 isn't exactly good for showing anything. Too much parody at that point. Of course I could say the sky is blue, and like clockwork Stebo would chime in to tell everyone it's actually more turquoise. The mean still shows what it shows. and of course it's a mix, isn't that the point?...no one disputes that. The question is what's the ratio? Looking at the low placement map, the VAST majority are clustered WELL southeast of most of us....a few stragglers well nw or right on top. The 52 esem, members are all over the place as you would expect, but the vast majority are either non-events or southeast. Just say'n. Not sure why I'm wasting time with this, it'll be an MSP special tomorrow and an HECS on Friday....but we're talking about todays run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You know it's a pretty awful winter for big snowstorms when people are arguing having a serious debate over a day 7-9 "threat"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Of course I could say the sky is blue, and like clockwork Stebo would chime in to tell everyone it's actually more turquoise. The mean still shows what it shows. and of course it's a mix, isn't that the point?...no one disputes that. The question is what's the ratio? Looking at the low placement map, the VAST majority are clustered WELL southeast of most of us....a few stragglers well nw or right on top. The 52 esem, members are all over the place as you would expect, but the vast majority are either non-events or southeast. Just say'n. Not sure why I'm wasting time with this, it'll be an MSP special tomorrow and an HECS on Friday....but we're talking about todays run. I am just pointing out that the map doesn't have much value stand alone, don't get all grumpy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Of course I could say the sky is blue, and like clockwork Stebo would chime in to tell everyone it's actually more turquoise. It's actually black...so I don't think he would correct someone with another wrong statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I would start getting excited over what's coming up starting at the end of next week, but after the late December/early January pattern change yeilding 0 "big" snowstorms for the subforum (with any threats being wasted) it's hard to be optimistic. I'd like to see a better -AO/-NAO on the ensembles, and perhaps it'll trend that way with time, but with a large -EPO expected to develop *yet again* and the GEFS and EPS both showing weak troughing over the SW for the better part of the mid-long range of their last few runs, we'll see what can happen. If anything, more clippers should be a good bet, and the clipper last week managed to drop over 5" on Athens, although I wasn't here at the time. Lake Erie is already frozen and I'd imagine the other ones will see a nice increase in ice cover with the upcoming cold and significantly muted warm shot this weekend, but some LES is likely too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I would start getting excited over what's coming up starting at the end of next week, but after the late December/early January pattern change yeilding 0 "big" snowstorms for the subforum (with any threats being wasted) it's hard to be optimistic. I'd like to see a better -AO/-NAO on the ensembles, and perhaps it'll trend that way with time, but with a large -EPO expected to develop *yet again* and the GEFS and EPS both showing weak troughing over the SW for the better part of the mid-long range of their last few runs, we'll see what can happen. If anything, more clippers should be a good bet, and the clipper last week managed to drop over 5" on Athens, although I wasn't here at the time. Lake Erie is already frozen and I'd imagine the other ones will see a nice increase in ice cover with the upcoming cold and significantly muted warm shot this weekend, but some LES is likely too. The -NAO looks to be a decent bet if the models are to be believed in the mid range. Both GFS and Euro send it negative, it will be interesting to see how negative and for how long. The AO has been all over the place in recent runs but it does look to at the very least get to near 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This month I have been very happy we have had snowcover (currently ~8" IMBY) & ice cover (still a little left on some trees). Been able to do skating, skiing, sledding ... ... snowmobiles have been going like crazy around my area the past several days. I know your the awesome stat guy. What are the stats for 50F in January like you said with 40F? ... just wondering. Since 1874.... 132 of the 140 years saw a temp of 40F+ in January 80 of the 140 years saw a temp of 50F+ in January 17 of the 140 years saw a temp of 60F+ in January So in other words, its TWICE AS LIKELY to see a 60F+ day in January than it is to NOT see a single 40F day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The -NAO looks to be a decent bet if the models are to be believed in the mid range. Both GFS and Euro send it negative, it will be interesting to see how negative and for how long. The AO has been all over the place in recent runs but it does look to at the very least get to near 0. I think both indexes will improve and at least become neutral. The models tried developing a -NAO after Christmas in the long range but it ended up being brief and didn't really help us much, we'll see if this time is different. This time, the MJO doesn't quickly move back into phases 3-5 so we'll have a favorable Pacific for at least a couple of weeks, so there's time to work on the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 So that day 9 Euro image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 So that day 9 Euro image... The one that was suppressed at 12z ..... Drastic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The one that was suppressed at 12z ..... Drastic change Makes sense considering it is digging further southwest and going neutrally tilted before the MS River. This would be a lakes cutter with this setup especially with the ridging forming ahead of it. The 12z had the same idea but came out in parts never allowing for the ridge to build. With the PNA forecast to go slightly negative by then, I would argue for a better chance of ridging ahead of this system across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Reminds me of the early progs of the #santabomb. Indiana gets absolutely raked, just to get the LAF crew crooning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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