Whitelakeroy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like it barely gets into 7 before heading back in. I guess it depends on what model you are looking at but I was looking at the latest ECMF (EURO) & NCPE (US) on this site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Today they show it getting through Phase 7 and just into 8 before going toward the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 December PDO per JISAO came in at +2.51, strongest +PDO on record in December. Previous high was +2.10 in 2002. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest What's bizarre is the amount of recent cooling in the ENSO regions in association with it (due to anomalous easterlies especially east of Nino 4). Compared to 02-03, this +PDO is of different character. 02-03 featured a very cold north central Pacific and fairly weak warm anomalies closer to the West Coast, while this year has very warm anomalies close to the coast and relatively weak cold anomalies over the north central Pacific (which actually have been showing some signs of warming recently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looking at today's ensemble and operational guidance, the theme is what thaw. Certainly not as cold as what we've had much of the month into next work week, but other than the likely warmth on Saturday, looking like mainly seasonal temperatures, with some slightly above and below normal days mixed in. Doesn't appear to be a great pattern for significant storm systems, but we'll have to watch for adjustments in the path of possible clippers early to mid week next week. Then beyond that, the strong signal for amplification of ridging along the west coast up to AK continues on the ENS, so late next week and beyond, pretty high confidence on returning to a frigid pattern. The day 7 look on the 12z EPS might not be bad for storm chances, with negative height anomalies centered over the Southwest. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 PGFS takes over on the 14th. And the old GFS goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looking at today's ensemble and operational guidance, the theme is what thaw. Certainly not as cold as what we've had much of the month into next work week, but other than the likely warmth on Saturday, looking like mainly seasonal temperatures, with some slightly above and below normal days mixed in. Doesn't appear to be a great pattern for significant storm systems, but we'll have to watch for adjustments in the path of possible clippers early to mid week next week. Then beyond that, the strong signal for amplification of ridging along the west coast up to AK continues on the ENS, so late next week and beyond, pretty high confidence on returning to a frigid pattern. The day 7 look on the 12z EPS might not be bad for storm chances, with negative height anomalies centered over the Southwest. Sent from my SM-G900V another modeled torch bites the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This winter has had its share of muted torches, waggons and the ZZZZ. Unlike last season when the ZZZZ was the precursor of interesting weather. Watching the EPO as of late and it shows the warmth followed by another cold spell starting around the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 another modeled torch bites the dust. Been a recurring theme for the most part, outside of December. As RC mentioned, Saturday may be the day to watch out ahead of that low passing to the north. 850 mb temps around 5-7C here with decent S/SW flow, so could easily see temps getting well into the 40s here even with the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Been a recurring theme for the most part, outside of December. As RC mentioned, Saturday may be the day to watch out ahead of that low passing to the north. 850 mb temps around 5-7C here with decent S/SW flow, so could easily see temps getting well into the 40s here even with the snowpack. Yeah I would expect the weekend to be our warmest period with the clipper passing to our north, thankfully it is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looking at today's ensemble and operational guidance, the theme is what thaw. Certainly not as cold as what we've had much of the month into next work week, but other than the likely warmth on Saturday, looking like mainly seasonal temperatures, with some slightly above and below normal days mixed in. Doesn't appear to be a great pattern for significant storm systems, but we'll have to watch for adjustments in the path of possible clippers early to mid week next week. Then beyond that, the strong signal for amplification of ridging along the west coast up to AK continues on the ENS, so late next week and beyond, pretty high confidence on returning to a frigid pattern. The day 7 look on the 12z EPS might not be bad for storm chances, with negative height anomalies centered over the Southwest. Sent from my SM-G900V My call on C/W is failing hard , starting to feel like last year with all the "warmth is there but never really there" ideas. That exceptionally strong +PDO seems to be overwhelming the pattern to a degree right now, which is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Now that's a torch It's above normal, but it's more of a weak quasi pacific flow. The red colors only indicate how likely those areas are to be above normal, not how much above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 another modeled torch bites the dust. We are looking at mid 30's here.... Probably 5F above normal for a single day. That's like calling 86F in July a heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 another modeled torch bites the dust. yup....just like all the modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 yup....just like all the modeled snow. Sarcasm aside, you know that specific qpf/L pressure readings of precip/storms are different than temp TRENDS. When there is model/ensemble agreement of a significant warmup/thaw/torch whatever, and it doesnt happen time and time again, its intriguing to cold weather lovers. The opposite of 2001-02. Clearly this is your least favorite winter ever, and thats fine, but to each their own. Its far from my favorite as well, but I will take a cold, white winter in a heartbeat over many of the alternatives. The sky is the limit with the winter activities that can be done right now, as there is enough snow on the ground and ice on the ponds/lakes to do just about anything. But yeah, if you dont care for winter other than tracking a storm, might as well hibernate until spring or take a trip to FL. Even if/when a big storm does come, its probably not going to be modeled well, which will only cause more frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 looks zonal, especially when you backbuild heights. No it doesn't. Zonal and amplified are antonyms, not synonyms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Zzzzzz Lamest winter in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Zzzzzz Lamest winter in a while Actually, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 were far bigger snoozers at this point. The 2012-2013 season ended up backloaded, while the prior never recovered. In fact, I ended up issuing credits to some seasonal accounts. I suspect, this one starts to ratchet up again mid next week. Another back loaded winter is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sarcasm aside, you know that specific qpf/L pressure readings of precip/storms are different than temp TRENDS. When there is model/ensemble agreement of a significant warmup/thaw/torch whatever, and it doesnt happen time and time again, its intriguing to cold weather lovers. The opposite of 2001-02. Clearly this is your least favorite winter ever, and thats fine, but to each their own. Its far from my favorite as well, but I will take a cold, white winter in a heartbeat over many of the alternatives. The sky is the limit with the winter activities that can be done right now, as there is enough snow on the ground and ice on the ponds/lakes to do just about anything. But yeah, if you dont care for winter other than tracking a storm, might as well hibernate until spring or take a trip to FL. Even if/when a big storm does come, its probably not going to be modeled well, which will only cause more frustration. This is not my least favorite winter, not sure why you made that leap of an assumption other than maybe you don't know me very well...lol. Like most, I'm here because I have an illogical passion for weather extremes, mostly snow and severe storms. But it's not my life, it's a fun distraction from life. I would never move for weather sake. Hell, if I moved to some LES belt in northern MI, what the hell would I have to b**ch about? As long as we continue this pattern of washed out storms, cold with no precip, warm ups with precip, etc....I will b**ch and i will moan, and I will do it in the only venue I can, right here in the midst of like minds. I refuse to celebrate a dry cold shot or another nickle or dime event. If those things brought us satisfaction, why would any of us ever post here? Our bellies would always be full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Actually, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 were far bigger snoozers at this point. The 2012-2013 season ended up backloaded, while the prior never recovered. In fact, I ended up issuing credits to some seasonal accounts. I suspect, this one starts to ratchet up again mid next week. Another back loaded winter is on the table. Agreed. This winter I believe will end up better than either of those. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This winter has lacked in big storms for sure but January has been a big turnaround after a incredibly quiet December. ORD is already up to 10.8" on the month, which is the monthly normal for the entire month, so it's a lock to end up an above normal snowfall month. This winter never appeared to be a big snowfall year, but since there's been a recovery this month, normal to above is still well in play in the Chicago area. January is also 10 degrees below normal through the first 13 days, which for now has already wiped out December's warmth. I'm also optimistic for a pretty good rest of the winter given the trends on the ensembles. 00z EPS even showing development of a -AO and positive height anomalies over Greenland from hr 168-240 and -EPO is already back by hr 144. If it's right, Saturday may the only day that threatens 40 on the month in Chicago. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This is not my least favorite winter, not sure why you made that leap of an assumption other than maybe you don't know me very well...lol. Like most, I'm here because I have an illogical passion for weather extremes, mostly snow and severe storms. But it's not my life, it's a fun distraction from life. I would never move for weather sake. Hell, if I moved to some LES belt in northern MI, what the hell would I have to b**ch about? As long as we continue this pattern of washed out storms, cold with no precip, warm ups with precip, etc....I will b**ch and i will moan, and I will do it in the only venue I can, right here in the midst of like minds. I refuse to celebrate a dry cold shot or another nickle or dime event. If those things brought us satisfaction, why would any of us ever post here? Our bellies would always be full. It just seemed by your posts you REALLY dont like this winter. Like I said in another thread, its been a long time since we have had a cold/dry winter (should that be the end result of this winter). So its definitely different. Lets face it, since we have all known each other, we have been rolling off winter after winter of above normal snowfall, and the few that were duds were torch winters. This is unchartered territory for us all in the weather board era. It's not so much a celebration, but it looks and feels like midwinter, which is something I enjoy. And its not like a thin covering of snow either, its a 6-inch blanket of powder, yes it took a week full of near daily nuisance snowfalls to get it, not celebrating a nickel and dime, but the amount of $ when you add all the nickels/dimes together Despite the overall snoozefest that the weather is, I can get a ton more out of it from a winter recreation standpoint then I could if we got a major snowstorm then a torch a few days later. Or I remember in 2011-12, every single time wed get a snowfall (and there WERE actually numerous times), we knew its time on the ground was limited as a thaw was a few days away again. Im sure a big storm is coming somewhere at some point, Id find it amazing that the entire winter would pass without one (then again, ma nature blew quite the unforeseen load last year, so she may be dried out). Lets just hope its a spread-the-wealth one. BTW Im the same, never would move for the weather. i tell everyone that when they say I should move to the UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This winter has lacked in big storms for sure but January has been a big turnaround after a incredibly quiet December. ORD is already up to 10.8" on the month, which is the monthly normal for the entire month, so it's a lock to end up an above normal snowfall month. This winter never appeared to be a big snowfall year, but since there's been a recovery this month, normal to above is still well in play in the Chicago area. January is also 10 degrees below normal through the first 13 days, which for now has already wiped out December's warmth. I'm also optimistic for a pretty good rest of the winter given the trends on the ensembles. 00z EPS even showing development of a -AO and positive height anomalies over Greenland from hr 168-240 and -EPO is already back by hr 144. If it's right, Saturday may the only day that threatens 40 on the month in Chicago. Sent from my SM-G900V Excellent post. We are in the same boat in Detroit. Though January snowfall sits at 9.4" and norm for the month is 12.5", so i wouldnt say above normal snow is a lock but rather very likely. Nov & Jan are much colder than normal with above normal snow, erase December and its a good winter actually . Could be an excellent year for duration of snowcover too, if we keep avoding torches and your optimism for the rest of winter pans out. Nowhere near last winter of course but better than normal. Saturday should be interesting to see if we can avoid 40F. In 140 years of record, only 8 times has Detroit not seen a 40F+ temp in January. In 141 years of record, only 10 times has Chicago not seen a 40F+ temp in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Excellent post. We are in the same boat in Detroit. Though January snowfall sits at 9.4" and norm for the month is 12.5", so i wouldnt say above normal snow is a lock but rather very likely. Nov & Jan are much colder than normal with above normal snow, erase December and its a good winter actually . Could be an excellent year for duration of snowcover too, if we keep avoding torches and your optimism for the rest of winter pans out. Nowhere near last winter of course but better than normal. Saturday should be interesting to see if we can avoid 40F. In 140 years of record, only 8 times has Detroit not seen a 40F+ temp in January. In 141 years of record, only 10 times has Chicago not seen a 40F+ temp in January. This month I have been very happy we have had snowcover (currently ~8" IMBY) & ice cover (still a little left on some trees). Been able to do skating, skiing, sledding ... ... snowmobiles have been going like crazy around my area the past several days. I know your the awesome stat guy. What are the stats for 50F in January like you said with 40F? ... just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM was entertaining today. All for fun at this range. First up this one. And then we go deeper into fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 it seems for the last several days either the ggem or the euro has had a significant storm in the 192-240 hr timeframe... somewhere east of the miss river. The only problem is, it's like a mirage, it never gets out of that timeframe I do think as far as storms are concerned it's same **** different week. As long as the NAO stays positive, anything that grows a sack will cut hard with anemic cold sector precip. If it stays weak, it shears out. Eventually that NAO will at least head to neutral/neg. When that happens I'd rather be in Alekland then Buckeyeland. translation: the 2014-2015 winter still pulsates ahead like a butter churn full of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 it seems for the last several days either the ggem or the euro has had a significant storm in the 192-240 hr timeframe... somewhere east of the miss river. The only problem is, it's like a mirage, it never gets out of that timeframe I do think as far as storms are concerned it's same **** different week. As long as the NAO stays positive, anything that grows a sack will cut hard with anemic cold sector precip. If it stays weak, it shears out. Eventually that NAO will at least head to neutral/neg. When that happens I'd rather be in Alekland then Buckeyeland. translation: the 2014-2015 winter still pulsates ahead like a butter churn full of crap. The NAO is trending downward both on the GFS ensembles and the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Lock that 12z GGEM in please lol. I've been watching the models for the 23rd timeframe they keep showing either an east coast bomb or apps runner or cutter it seems like, too far out in weenie land to take seriously yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Only looking at freebies so I'm not certain of the details, but looks like the 12z EURO tries to replicate the December 11 storm here at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Only looking at freebies so I'm not certain of the details, but looks like the 12z EURO tries to replicate the December 11 storm here at 120 Wide right. Relatively skinny area of precip on this run. But, I suppose there's still time for a trend further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Wide right. Relatively skinny area of precip on this run. But, I suppose there's still time for a trend further west. Just saw the qpf details. Nothing to the west of the track. Oh well...hallucinations will have to do until something tangible emerges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just saw the qpf details. Nothing to the west of the track. Oh well...hallucinations will have to do until something tangible emerges.This winter is what it is. Any s/w that emerges from the Sw amplifies and cuts or gets shredded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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