Stebo Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I am starting to like the period 10 days out for a potential system, the Euro ensemble mean is showing a decent signal for a trough in the west moving ENE toward the region. It has been hinting at a potential in the 10-15 day range now every run for a few days. Something to monitor going toward the middle late parts of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Operational Euro pretty depressing looking through at least the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 so much for phase 7.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 MJO in phase 6 with Nino 3.4 at 0.5C or greater isn't awful. Though I think some take it as a little too much gospel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 so much for phase 7.... It never was going to swing into high amplitudes of phases 7 and 8 like the GFS showed. GFS has been terrible handling it all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It never was going to swing into high amplitudes of phases 7 and 8 like the GFS showed. GFS has been terrible handling it all season. maybe not high amplitude thru 7,8....but I'm pretty sure many, including DT felt at least a low amp trip into 7 was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Damn after getting 5.5" in Noveember this sucks. The euro shows the cold vanishing from NA. The snowpack will be pushed back to Edmonton with probably it surviving in some or the lakes areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Damn after getting 5.5" in Noveember this sucks. The euro shows the cold vanishing from NA. The snowpack will be pushed back to Edmonton with probably it surviving in some or the lakes areas. Absolutely ridiculous statement by you friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 maybe not high amplitude thru 7,8....but I'm pretty sure many, including DT felt at least a low amp trip into 7 was expected. Could still squeak into 7, you never know. Just have to keep watching it. There was a time earlier this winter where the models had it going from 6 into the circle of death and it ended up nicking phase 7 before doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 MJO= overated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Absolutely ridiculous statement by you friv. agree. granted it ain't pretty, but I've seen worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 MJO= overated I agree, we don't know what the indices mean, which ones wag the dog and vice versa, and how they all relate together. On the other hand, (and maybe it's just a coincidence), but the mjo pulse has spent most of the winter in the COD or unfavorable phases, and all of us, (outside LES areas), are sitting on paltry snowfall totals so far. on the good side, the ao looks to tank by the end of January....of course DT says the gfs is flat wrong with that ...lol...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 agree. granted it ain't pretty, but I've seen worse A few after this the cold air looks to rebuild strongly over NA based on the EPS ensembles in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 A few after this the cold air looks to rebuild strongly over NA based on the EPS ensembles in the 11-15. I don't know, this is the 10-15 day eps mean. Even if you break it down into 12 hr increments, it's warmer as you get to day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Could still squeak into 7, you never know. Just have to keep watching it. There was a time earlier this winter where the models had it going from 6 into the circle of death and it ended up nicking phase 7 before doing so.Most likely will be the case once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 D10 fantasy storm brewing on the 12z EURO. My life has meaning again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 D10 fantasy storm brewing on the 12z EURO. My life has meaning again. lol...I just saw that. It literally doesn't get more perfect for you and I with that set up. The low is moving ne right up the western slopes of the apps and a pressing 1043 high. that kind of storm, ie pressing high with no northern low anywhere around to screw it up, and a developing low out of the southern states moving northeast would go against everything we've seen this winter. I put the chances at 2% let me clarify : I put the chances of the storm being there on the next run at 2%....and the chances of actual verification at .002% edit: of course the ensemble mean is 500 miles nw. ok, now things aren't looking so weird anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 lol...I just saw that. It literally doesn't get more perfect for you and I with that set up. The low is moving ne right up the western slopes of the apps and a pressing 1043 high. that kind of storm, ie pressing high with no northern low anywhere around to screw it up, and a developing low out of the southern states moving northeast would go against everything we've seen this winter. I put the chances at 2% let me clarify : I put the chances of the storm being there on the next run at 2%....and the chances of actual verification at .002% edit: of course the ensemble mean is 500 miles nw. ok, now things aren't looking so weird anymore. Been a while since we've had a true App runner. Probably March 2008 unless I'm missing something. And the last true threat of one was probably the Feb 2009 phantom bomb. We're due for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Absolutely ridiculous statement by you friv. lol I agree. Thats complete nonsense. What the Euro shows happens in probably 90% of Januarys, at least. Its called a January thaw. And btw, 850s dont melt snowpack, surface temps do....so LMAO at the snowpack retreating to Edmonton comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Been a while since we've had a true App runner. Probably March 2008 unless I'm missing something. And the last true threat of one was probably the Feb 2009 phantom bomb. We're due for one. Nope, that was the last one... That track has been MIA for the past several seasons (granted, Gulf Lows the past several seasons have generally been MIA period except maybe 1 or 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Saukville must be giggling right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Now that's a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro advertising another underwhelming system around the 20th. No major systems anywhere in sight. Looking pretty lame through the last week of Jan to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro advertising another underwhelming system around the 20th. No major systems anywhere in sight. Looking pretty lame through the last week of Jan to me. As I said in the current system thread, we are nickel and diming our way to a nice snowpack here despite nothing of significance, which more than satisfies me. A winter without a big snowstorm is certainly possible, as it has happened many times in the past. Especially since ma nature went ballistic with big storms last winter. However, in most of those instances where a winter passes without a big storm, its usually because we were not in a hotspot locally. Despite the abundance of snow last winter and the other shoe probably dropping this winter, I will be SHOCKED if the entire winter goes by without at LEAST one major snowstorm in the region. This means a widespread area of warning criteria snows, not a clipper with a few lollipops or something like that. So Im sure at some point in late Jan, Feb or Mar something major will happen somewhere in this forum. Just hope its sooner rather than later, because we know the board protocol in March. "I dont want any more snow, Im SO ready for spring".....*winter storm warning is issued, major storm hits*...."this is awesome!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 As I said in the current system thread, we are nickel and diming our way to a nice snowpack here despite nothing of significance, which more than satisfies me. A winter without a big snowstorm is certainly possible, as it has happened many times in the past. Especially since ma nature went ballistic with big storms last winter. However, in most of those instances where a winter passes without a big storm, its usually because we were not in a hotspot locally. Despite the abundance of snow last winter and the other shoe probably dropping this winter, I will be SHOCKED if the entire winter goes by without at LEAST one major snowstorm in the region. This means a widespread area of warning criteria snows, not a clipper with a few lollipops or something like that. So Im sure at some point in late Jan, Feb or Mar something major will happen somewhere in this forum. Just hope its sooner rather than later, because we know the board protocol in March. "I dont want any more snow, Im SO ready for spring".....*winter storm warning is issued, major storm hits*...."this is awesome!" As far as I'm concerned there is nothing 'awesome' about a <6" snowfall after March 1st. Now if you want to talk about 22", March 9, 2008...oh hell yes, I'll take that every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 As far as I'm concerned there is nothing 'awesome' about a <6" snowfall after March 1st. Now if you want to talk about 22", March 9, 2008...oh hell yes, I'll take that every year. Oh the board definitely diverges in March wrt who wants any snow and who doesnt. But my post was joking about the ones who say they are done with it, then when a major storm hits (ie >6") they are all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Oh the board definitely diverges in March wrt who wants any snow and who doesnt. But my post was joking about the ones who say they are done with it, then when a major storm hits (ie >6") they are all over it I agree to each his own. One of my big considerations for grading a snowstorm is it's staying power/duration after it's done. To me, getting a 4" snow in January that stays for 2 weeks is better than say an 8 inch snowstorm in March that turns to slush and mud 24 hours after it falls. Nothing more depressing than 40 degrees, gray, dripping, weather. I'll never forget the 12" snow in early April (I think it was in '87), it literally was GONE the next day. OTOH the March '08, 22 incher was also followed by 2 weeks of unusually cold weather, which kept it on the ground for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I agree to each his own. One of my big considerations for grading a snowstorm is it's staying power/duration after it's done. To me, getting a 4" snow in January that stays for 2 weeks is better than say an 8 inch snowstorm in March that turns to slush and mud 24 hours after it falls. Nothing more depressing than 40 degrees, gray, dripping, weather. I'll never forget the 12" snow in early April (I think it was in '87), it literally was GONE the next day. OTOH the March '08, 22 incher was also followed by 2 weeks of unusually cold weather, which kept it on the ground for a couple of weeks. I disagree... While I admit to being a snow depth lover, in March or April when everyone is in Spring mode, a 6-8" storm that goes away in a day or 2 is perfect, because while depth is nice in Winter, watchin' it snow is really the thrill. A snow storm, then gone 2 days later is about perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I disagree... While I admit to being a snow depth lover, in March or April when everyone is in Spring mode, a 6-8" storm that goes away in a day or 2 is perfect, because while depth is nice in Winter, watchin' it snow is really the thrill. A snow storm, then gone 2 days later is about perfect. Agreed, holding onto gross dirty glacier into April isn't exactly appealing but having nothing and then getting a huge snowstorm in late March or April is spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Oh the board definitely diverges in March wrt who wants any snow and who doesnt. But my post was joking about the ones who say they are done with it, then when a major storm hits (ie >6") they are all over it I'm definitely someone who is usually ready to move on to spring when March hits. I enjoy snow in DJF but not so much in March and beyond with some exceptions: 1) if we're going for an all-time record, like last winter 2) if it's a big storm, which I'll take at any time 3) if it's something super rare, like sticking snow in May Other than that, I'd be fine with 70 degree temps on the reg (not realistic here, I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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