Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Jonger]

FWIW, the GFS op run has continued to have a colder look over the past few runs in the day 7/8 range

 

12z GFS

 

gfsUS_850_temp_180.gif

 

It does, but I really hate how amplified the western part of the continent is, it's bound to move eastward and crap up the pattern change possibilities.

[A-L-E-K]

It does, but I really hate how amplified the western part of the continent is, it's bound to move eastward and crap up the pattern change possibilities.

 

 

yeah that's not a good look

[Thundersnow12]

Really the only thing interesting to watch at this point and I guess the 18z GFS has the best look so far.

 

The next wave will come ashore CA friday and slowly move eastward across the plains then it has a wave digging SE/ESE out of Canada and attempts to phase and doesn't look half bad phasing wise by 156hr. Would be nice to see the Canada wave drop further SW and phase earlier so we'll see. I believe the 12z GEM tried to do this as well to an extent. 

 

It's something at least. Images below are at 132hr

 

[michsnowfreak]

The pattern looks to be getting more active in the longterm (FINALLY). So still plenty of hope as we head towards Christmas. Seasonal temps seem to largely rule. I am about one more day from calling this month-awaited torch dead. Its looking more and more like it will be amounting to 3 days in the 40s, perhaps one 50F, in this neck of the woods, then right back to seasonal. Im not even confident December finished warmer than normal. We just need some damn action!

[Chicago Storm]

Really the only thing interesting to watch at this point and I guess the 18z GFS has the best look so far.

The next wave will come ashore CA friday and slowly move eastward across the plains then it has a wave digging SE/ESE out of Canada and attempts to phase and doesn't look half bad phasing wise by 156hr. Would be nice to see the Canada wave drop further SW and phase earlier so we'll see. I believe the 12z GEM tried to do this as well to an extent.

It's something at least. Images below are at 132hr

phasing and temps.png

It's nothing.

[OHweather]

Really the only thing interesting to watch at this point and I guess the 18z GFS has the best look so far.

 

The next wave will come ashore CA friday and slowly move eastward across the plains then it has a wave digging SE/ESE out of Canada and attempts to phase and doesn't look half bad phasing wise by 156hr. Would be nice to see the Canada wave drop further SW and phase earlier so we'll see. I believe the 12z GEM tried to do this as well to an extent. 

 

It's something at least. Images below are at 132hr

 

phasing and temps.png

I'm a bit worried that there just won't be enough cold air around for the Tuesday-Wednesday threat next week, although more northern stream involvement would help in that department and the 18z GFS looked a bit snowier on the northwestern side of that storm, with cooler air and wrap around snow showers for most of the sub behind it. The ensembles show another STJ shortwave ejecting out of the southwest day 9-10, and if the system near the middle of next week can pull down some cold, then there may be a modest threat in that timeframe (say around the 20th +/- a day). Then, the STJ looks to stay active towards the holidays as we gradually build some west coast ridging and get somewhat better cold to work-with. We'll see if the late month pattern favors us or the East Coast more as we get closer.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm a bit worried that there just won't be enough cold air around for the Tuesday-Wednesday threat next week, although more northern stream involvement would help in that department and the 18z GFS looked a bit snowier on the northwestern side of that storm, with cooler air and wrap around snow showers for most of the sub behind it. The ensembles show another STJ shortwave ejecting out of the southwest day 9-10, and if the system near the middle of next week can pull down some cold, then there may be a modest threat in that timeframe (say around the 20th +/- a day). Then, the STJ looks to stay active towards the holidays as we gradually build some west coast ridging and get somewhat better cold to work-with. We'll see if the late month pattern favors us or the East Coast more as we get closer.

This is a total weenie thought...but hear me out. The east coast weenies think that storm after storm is a good sign for them...but maybe not so fast. Most winters do have a favored storm track in the end (every region gets in on some action, but there usually is a favored region), but also that general storm track does seem to move around. Think of 2000-01 when we were bombarded in Dec then afterward it was all about the east. Well...Boston is having like their 5th deluging rainstorm in 3.5 weeks. And this has been in a cold pattern too, they just had a rainstorm, then dipped into the teens the other night, now another rainstorm. Its really a case of bad luck where the climo shows well above normal precip, below normal temps, and little snow. A few winters in/around the 1960s a similar thing happened here. These winters were pitiful from a final snow standpoint, but not mild or overly dry. So what happened? We were deluged by rainstorms in a cold, wet "bad luck" pattern then it turned cold and dry (and we had the scraps of snow while the east got buried). This is NOT a prediction or anything, just a thought, that once the cold/action return, the storm track may be taking its turn in our neck of the woods. And if that would happen we may be thanking our lucky stars for this total boredom pattern December has brought.

 

[OHweather]

This is a total weenie thought...but hear me out. The east coast weenies think that storm after storm is a good sign for them...but maybe not so fast. Most winters do have a favored storm track in the end (every region gets in on some action, but there usually is a favored region), but also that general storm track does seem to move around. Think of 2000-01 when we were bombarded in Dec then afterward it was all about the east. Well...Boston is having like their 5th deluging rainstorm in 3.5 weeks. And this has been in a cold pattern too, they just had a rainstorm, then dipped into the teens the other night, now another rainstorm. Its really a case of bad luck where the climo shows well above normal precip, below normal temps, and little snow. A few winters in/around the 1960s a similar thing happened here. These winters were pitiful from a final snow standpoint, but not mild or overly dry. So what happened? We were deluged by rainstorms in a cold, wet "bad luck" pattern then it turned cold and dry (and we had the scraps of snow while the east got buried). This is NOT a prediction or anything, just a thought, that once the cold/action return, the storm track may be taking its turn in our neck of the woods. And if that would happen we may be thanking our lucky stars for this total boredom pattern December has brought.

 

Haha, we'll see. One thought is with no -NAO for at least the next 2-3 weeks barring big changes is that if we can get some decent ridging on the west coast that sends some northern stream shortwaves into the Plains/Midwest that if we get a storm to phase that more of the Great Lakes could become involved in snow chances. Otherwise we'll just get the moisture with the STJ sliding by to the south with at best narrow corridors of wintry precip on the northern edge of any systems.

[Jonger]

Can I un-punt the last week of December?

Instead of a regular punt, I'm going for the on side kick.

[michsnowfreak]

Haha, we'll see. One thought is with no -NAO for at least the next 2-3 weeks barring big changes is that if we can get some decent ridging on the west coast that sends some northern stream shortwaves into the Plains/Midwest that if we get a storm to phase that more of the Great Lakes could become involved in snow chances. Otherwise we'll just get the moisture with the STJ sliding by to the south with at best narrow corridors of wintry precip on the northern edge of any systems.

Just itching for snow. Im trying to think if the wintry November is tiding me over or making me EXTRA antsy. Im all for a clipper NW flow pattern too. Thats usually a more reliable and spread the wealth pattern, whereas hoping for big storms is more of a gamble but much more reward for some.

[Hoosier]

This is a total weenie thought...but hear me out. The east coast weenies think that storm after storm is a good sign for them...but maybe not so fast. Most winters do have a favored storm track in the end (every region gets in on some action, but there usually is a favored region), but also that general storm track does seem to move around. Think of 2000-01 when we were bombarded in Dec then afterward it was all about the east. Well...Boston is having like their 5th deluging rainstorm in 3.5 weeks. And this has been in a cold pattern too, they just had a rainstorm, then dipped into the teens the other night, now another rainstorm. Its really a case of bad luck where the climo shows well above normal precip, below normal temps, and little snow. A few winters in/around the 1960s a similar thing happened here. These winters were pitiful from a final snow standpoint, but not mild or overly dry. So what happened? We were deluged by rainstorms in a cold, wet "bad luck" pattern then it turned cold and dry (and we had the scraps of snow while the east got buried). This is NOT a prediction or anything, just a thought, that once the cold/action return, the storm track may be taking its turn in our neck of the woods. And if that would happen we may be thanking our lucky stars for this total boredom pattern December has brought.

 

 

 

I remember 00-01 differently than you...I thought it was a mix of cutters and east coast storms after December.  Tim and I were on WWBB and I remember us complaining about storms going to our northwest.  

 

East getting more of the action lately doesn't bother me all that much.  For all the storminess, they have little to show for it (as far as snow) where most of the people live.  It's Nino...they'll probably get more storms but hopefully we get our chances as well.

[michsnowfreak]

I remember 00-01 differently than you...I thought it was a mix of cutters and east coast storms after December.  Tim and I were on WWBB and I remember us complaining about storms going to our northwest.  

 

East getting more of the action lately doesn't bother me all that much.  For all the storminess, they have little to show for it (as far as snow) where most of the people live.  It's Nino...they'll probably get more storms but hopefully we get our chances as well.

hmm...i dont remember that. I remember January as very similar to this December (only with snow on the ground). Not cold not warm..just cloudy and boring. I dont have as good of memory about surrounding areas back then though, so i probably forgot the cutters.

 

We will get our chances at big storms obviously...but right now what id give for a simple clipper!

[OHweather]

Just itching for snow. Im trying to think if the wintry November is tiding me over or making me EXTRA antsy. Im all for a clipper NW flow pattern too. Thats usually a more reliable and spread the wealth pattern, whereas hoping for big storms is more of a gamble but much more reward for some.

The wintry November personally tided me over haha, but I can understand wanting more. If I eat a cookie, I get angry if I have to wait another 3 weeks to eat another one

 

If the ensembles have a clue with heights continuing to gradually rise in AK in the long range, and hints at a possible stratospheric warming event in 10-14 days continue, which would possibly cause an AO flip during the first half of January, then we may eventually get your clipper/NW flow pattern. That's still a long ways out but would match typical Nino climo (warmer Decembers before colder for January/February) as well as the high snow cover advance years as well (I'm not sure if it was posted here or somewhere else, but Judah Cohan put an animation of 2m temp anomalies in one of his recent blog entries of other high snow cover advance years, and there was definitely a mild start to December followed by the hammer dropping in January, with an up and down pattern for the last third of December).

 

Edit: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Animation at the bottom. I'm not sure if it's the same animation I saw last week, but gives a similar idea about the typical progression of temp anomalies in high snow cover years vs low snow cover years.

[Chicago WX]

I remember 00-01 differently than you...I thought it was a mix of cutters and east coast storms after December.  Tim and I were on WWBB and I remember us complaining about storms going to our northwest.  

 

Your memory isn't too bad.

 

January 2001 was a complete snoozer until the end of the month, and then this monstrosity hit on 1/29-30 (worth a few clicks ahead): http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2001&mm=01&dd=29&run=12

 

Another cutter on 2/8-9: http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2001&mm=02&dd=08&run=12

 

And another on 2/24-25: http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2001&mm=02&dd=24&run=00

 

3/15-16 was a changeover event: http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2001&mm=03&dd=15&run=00

 

And that was it for us that season. As we've said before, a pretty disappointing rest of winter after a fantastic December.

[Hoosier]

hmm...i dont remember that. I remember January as very similar to this December (only with snow on the ground). Not cold not warm..just cloudy and boring. I dont have as good of memory about surrounding areas back then though, so i probably forgot the cutters.

 

We will get our chances at big storms obviously...but right now what id give for a simple clipper!

 

 

The entire post-December period is kind of a blur as far as details...I just know it sucked.

Here's a cutter...February 24-25, 2001

 

[OHweather]

Perhaps I’m just too optimistic, but I don’t totally hate the weather pattern shown on all three ensembles moving forward, and I think there are a couple chances to thread the needle with some snow somewhere even before I think the pattern starts improving for cold towards Christmas and into January. My one concern is that the best chances for snow end up being east of most of us, but that will be figured out if any of these threats come to fruition.

 

The first potential system to track is next Tuesday-Wednesday. The GFS, Euro and Canadian both show a decent STJ shortwave ejecting into the Plains on Monday. The GFS and Canadian appear to show decent northern stream involvement and show a low tracking into the Great Lakes with a swath of accumulating snow on the northwestern end of it, with some wrap around snow showers behind it for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. The Euro shows almost no northern stream involvement and no snow, although some of its ensembles appear a bit more optimistic. The ensemble mean shows a low tracking across the Ohio Valley, although there appears to be a lot of spread among the ensemble members. Temps appear too warm ahead of the system, so we’d need northern stream involvement to see any notable snows. It’s not impossible though as the models appear to show a northern stream shortwave tracking across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes in this timeframe:

 

 

The next opportunity appears to come around the 20^th. All three ensembles at 12z show another STJ shortwave ejecting into the Plains around the 19^th and tracking east across the Ohio Valley thereafter. The northern stream shortwave shown to move across the Midwest/Great Lakes around the middle of next week could pull down  some cold air ahead of this next STJ shortwave, however again, northern stream involvement looks iffy for the threat around the 20^th, which may limit how large of an area possibly sees snow.

 

The Canadian and Euro ensembles show an ok surface reflection for this far out in the ensemble means, with an inverted trough moving across the Ohio Valley the 20^th-21^st. The GFS ensembles show this feature staying much farther south. If the day 10+ Euro ensembles were available on a free source I’d post them instead, but the GGEM ensembles around the 20th look reasonably close to the Euro ensembles at the surface and if anything slightly less amplified at 500mb:

 

 

The Euro ensembles if anything are slightly lower with surface pressures and show the shortwave taking on a modest negative tilt before hitting the Appalachians. The Euro ensembles show the 0C line at 850mb a bit north of the Ohio River as this system goes by, which is better than what’s shown with next week’s system, so I’d have to imagine that if there’s any northern stream involvement that this one could be somewhat interesting. There’s modest confluence over the northeast which would probably keep this one from going too far north even if there was some phasing. The GGEM ensembles do show an increase in precipitation into the lower Great Lakes as this wave goes by:

 

 

Both ensembles appear to show a slightly better look for the East Coast, but this may become something to track across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. I’d say the key for this one is also some northern stream involvement and getting a little bit of cold pulled down behind next week’s system.

 

For what it’s worth, we can look at the Euro ensembles a day or two before this possible system to watch:

 

 

It would probably be better if the ridge over the western US was located a little bit farther west, but that isn’t the worst look for some snow across the areas I outlined above, and that is a nice piece of energy ejecting into the Plains. There is some chance for northern stream involvement, but I’d like to see the western US ridge slightly sharper and perhaps a bit farther west to feel more confident.

 

After the potential system around the 20^th, the pattern looks to stay active and looks to improve for those of us who’d like cold weather. The changes start in the Pacific, and you can see the change within a week on the GFS. The Euro still seems to like the MJO going through phase 7 (although at a weak amplitude) before going into the COD for most of the next two weeks:

 

 

The GFS reflects a more favorable Pacific jet, probably because the most active convection isn’t well west of the Dateline and over the Indian Ocean like it had been. The GFS and it appears the Euro ensembles also appear to quiet down the convection near Hawaii a little bit in the mid-range as well, which weakens the Pac jet closer to the west coast of the US as well (which is good if we want to build a ridge there).

 

Anyways, here’s what the Pac jet currently looks like per the GFS:          

 

 

At 180 hours, the strongest of the jet is focused over eastern Asia and into the western Pacific, with favorable divergence over the NW Pacific, supporting storminess near the Aleutian Islands or just west, which does support a ridge developing along the West Coast thereafter:

 

 

We’ll see how things evolve. The long range GFS has tried a couple of times to flirt with a very amplified western US ridge near the end of the run, but that is fantasy range stuff. Looking at the Pac jet at 180 hours is more reliable, so we’ll see if the improvement in the location of the strongest portion of it holds up on guidance over the next few days or so.

 

If the improvement in the Pacific is real (the ensembles have suggested it for several days, and the MJO supports it too), then we’d likely see better chances at northern stream involvement with any STJ moisture that ejects into the Plains during the last 7-10 days of the month. The ensembles do all suggest another piece of energy ejecting a couple of days before Christmas and one possibly around Christmas, but that’s pretty far out to get too specific.

 

 

As to where the more active weather pattern may impact during the latter portions of the month, it may ultimately depend on how much the western US ridge amplifies. If it’s flatter, I’d say farther east would be favored, even with no real –NAO showing up for the next two weeks, as there probably wouldn’t be any opportunity to phase over the Plains like we’d need. If it’s sharper, we’d probably see northern stream shortwaves dive into the Plains, and with no –NAO, if they have some STJ energy to phase with (which looks quite possible), then they may cut farther NW, which would be good for a lot of this sub-forum. So, I do think we may have some chances late in the month.

 

As for heading into January, we’ll see. Some of the longer range MJO plots try to suggest the MJO might become a bit more unfavorable, however for now it doesn’t look to be quite the amplitude it was over the last couple of weeks. In addition, the GFS and Euro have both been hinting at some good warming in the lower portions of the stratosphere (100-50mb) during the latter third of December for a few runs now, with some signs of the vortex becoming disturbed. If that persists, that could correlate to a more –AO heading into January. If western N. America ridging does in fact develop over the last third of the month like the ensembles are currently insisting on, this could allow for a much colder weather pattern to develop at some point between January 1 and 10. We’ll see:

 

 

Anyways, a lot of this is speculative, as a lot of long range stuff is. But, with an active STJ, I think we’ll have our chances during the last third of the month, with the more optimal chances probably coming closer to the last week of the month as we get more northern stream involvement. It may come down to when individual shortwaves phase to determine where the best threat for snow ends up (IE here or closer to the East Coast), and that’s obviously a crap shoot this far out. Early indications look like a pretty cold start to January, but we’ll have to watch how the Pacific pattern and possible stratospheric warming play out over the next couple of weeks.

[Chicago Storm]

After the potential system around the 20^th, the pattern looks to stay active and looks to improve for those of us who’d like cold weather. The changes start in the Pacific, and you can see the change within a week on the GFS. The Euro still seems to like the MJO going through phase 7 (although at a weak amplitude) before going into the COD for most of the next two weeks:

One problem, the ECMWF does not take the MJO into phase 7. The image you posted is the climo-biased version, which has proven to be wrong thus far.

 

[OHweather]

One problem, the ECMWF does not take the MJO into phase 7. The image you posted is the climo-biased version, which has proven to be wrong thus far.

 

 

Hmm, so that's the difference between those two. The "regular" version kills it much faster, so it would probably neither hurt nor help the pattern if it plays out like that. The Euro ensembles still do build a western US ridge in the 10-14 day timeframe, even without a very amplified MJO. What you posted gets the MJO out into the more unfavorable phases quicker too. That'll be something to watch heading into January (might make it more important to get some high-latitude blocking by that point). Even with that said, I'm still fairly optimistic for the end of the month.

[dan123]

One problem, the ECMWF does not take the MJO into phase 7. The image you posted is the climo-biased version, which has proven to be wrong thus far.

I hear that the MJO plots are contaminated though and they shouldn't be looked at

[Powerball]

Really the only thing interesting to watch at this point and I guess the 18z GFS has the best look so far.

 

The next wave will come ashore CA friday and slowly move eastward across the plains then it has a wave digging SE/ESE out of Canada and attempts to phase and doesn't look half bad phasing wise by 156hr. Would be nice to see the Canada wave drop further SW and phase earlier so we'll see. I believe the 12z GEM tried to do this as well to an extent. 

 

It's something at least. Images below are at 132hr

 

phasing and temps.png

 

I think most would pass on a MSP or MSN special...

[BuffaloWeather]

Incredible writeup Ohio. Thanks.

[Chitown Storm]

It's the first halfway decent look in several weeks and it doesn't hit your backyard. Of course you're going to pass.

I think most would pass on a MSP or MSN special...

[Powerball]

It's the first halfway decent look in several weeks and it doesn't hit your backyard. Of course you're going to pass.

 

 

But of course.

 

I know for you it would be a good hit, but I'm betting I wouldn't be alone in passing on what would likely be a cold-ish rainstorm for the majority on this forum. 

 

Granted, this is all assuming we actually get a phase to happen as the poster I replied to implied (which is doubtful).

[Chitown Storm]

MPX not overly impressed with the phasing prospects either, but leaves the door open. We'll see. I'd love to see it happen after a near 50F torch on Saturday.

But of course.

I know for you it would be a good hit, but I'm betting I wouldn't be alone in passing on what would likely be a cold-ish rainstorm for the majority on this forum.

Of course, this is all assuming we actually get a phase to happen as the poster I replied to implied (which is doubtful).

[michsnowfreak]

But of course.

 

I know for you it would be a good hit, but I'm betting I wouldn't be alone in passing on what would likely be a cold-ish rainstorm for the majority on this forum. 

 

Granted, this is all assuming we actually get a phase to happen as the poster I replied to implied (which is doubtful).

I think most would pass on something not good for them. As said though, the long range looks to be a bit more active. Yes, there will be haves and have nots, but its better than everyone being have nots.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Chitown Storm]

Looks like the Euro now wants to bring the southern wave early next week a little farther north.

[DAFF]

I was looking at some temperature patterns in November... Seems before each of the two cold sectors there was a two or three day mini torch then the bottom fell out. Watching this AM GFS I can see the same scenario unfolding, its some time out but the pattern potential is there. There might be many including myself who bust on the white Christmas game.

[Rainman]

Outstanding, OHweather. Thank you for taking the time to write that up.

[OHweather]

Incredible writeup Ohio. Thanks.

 

 

Outstanding, OHweather. Thank you for taking the time to write that up.

Thanks. I'm hoping we get at least one legitimate threat pans out (we'll define that as over 4" of snow somewhere in the subforum other than the UP or northern WI...no offense to our posters there, but that wouldn't do any good to the rest of us and would probably serve to just annoy people, although I do hope everyone gets snow at some point) so I don't appear too crazy lol. The 12z GFS and 0z Euro at least showed something around the 20th, but I'm sure that will come and go from the models for another few days.