Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Baum]

I would not expect a one month reprieve as we experienced from Thanksgiving until Christmas.

[Chicago WX]

Euro and Canadian both keep trying to get something going in the Jan 12-14 timeframe. We'll see.

 

12z GGEM moves it up a day...but yeah. Like I said, we'll see.

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

Even the ensembles muck things up inside 10 days sometimes.

 

 

[Chicago WX]

12z Euro continues with a winter system in the Jan 12-14 range. Verbatim not a huge storm, but the signal remains.

[buckeye]

12z Euro continues with a winter system in the Jan 12-14 range. Verbatim not a huge storm, but the signal remains.

 

looks like a stripe of snow up thru OV or lower lakes in a couple of waves 168-240.  Wxbell snow maps look too generous too far southeast into central Ohio.  850's on the plymouth site show 0 line further northwest than what the wxbell snow area lines up with....implying rain snow line is too far southeast on wxbell...

 

...imagine that 

[buckeye]

Even the ensembles muck things up inside 10 days sometimes.

 

 

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I've noticed when it comes to short range,, (ie approaching storms),  you're glass is always half empty.....but when it comes to long range, it's half full.   just an observation 

 

...although I fully recognize I often drink from a shaker.

[Hoosier]

I've noticed when it comes to short range,, (ie approaching storms),  you're glass is always half empty.....but when it comes to long range, it's half full.   just an observation 

 

...although I fully recognize I often drink from a shaker.

 

 

He's not half empty in short range...it's entirely empty and ready to dump out mine.

[Chicago WX]

I've noticed when it comes to short range,, (ie approaching storms),  you're glass is always half empty.....but when it comes to long range, it's half full.   just an observation 

 

...although I fully recognize I often drink from a shaker.

 

 

He's not half empty in short range...it's entirely empty and ready to dump out mine.

 

lol to both. And very very true. But there are too many medium/long range wrist-slitters in this place, so someone has to try to even things out. 

 

My point remains about the medium range though, even the best models fook things up on occasion.

[RCNYILWX]

Based on the look of the 12z GEFS, warm up would be delayed until MLK day weekend, but 00z Euro EPS last night is a little quicker. All about how quickly the -EPO and PNA ridge out west break down and heights lower in the Gulf of Alaska. It seems that overall, the EPS has pushed the warm up back, so we'll see if it trends closer to the GEFS. The GEFS does suggest heights rebuild over Alaska toward the end of the run and Euro weeklies and what has already been written about beyond day 10 of the EPS are similar, so as others have mentioned, it may not be a prolonged warmup. Prior to the warmup next week, the pattern isn't great for snowstorms but maybe we can get more clippers, or maybe the Euro and GEM are onto something.

[smoof]

looks like a stripe of snow up thru OV or lower lakes in a couple of waves 168-240.  Wxbell snow maps look too generous too far southeast into central Ohio.  850's on the plymouth site show 0 line further northwest than what the wxbell snow area lines up with....implying rain snow line is too far southeast on wxbell...

 

...imagine that 

Haha the best lesson I learned this season is to completely ignore wxbell and tropical tidbits "snow" maps, their ratios are always way too high and seem to be contaminated with s***t and even freezing rain totals. the snow maps at instantweathermaps and even the old school clown maps of the kuchera method are much more accurate.

[Chicago WX]

EPS seem to be chasing the GEFS in the long range right now. 12z version with a shorter duration relaxation, quicker height rebuild out west. Of course anything on the ensembles past day 10 lately has been a little voodoo. 

 

1/12-14 system signal on the EPS as well. Cold high pressure in effect, so even if your 850 temps go above 0˚, surface stays cold enough for some icing concerns. Shall be interesting...

[TheWeatherPimp]

EPS seem to be chasing the GEFS in the long range right now. 12z version with a shorter duration relaxation, quicker height rebuild out west. Of course anything on the ensembles past day 10 lately has been a little voodoo. 

 

1/12-14 system signal on the EPS as well. Cold high pressure in effect, so even if your 850 temps go above 0˚, surface stays cold enough for some icing concerns. Shall be interesting...

Gotta agree on the potential icing concerns - looks like a favorable/classic ice setup.

[Stebo]

Based on the look of the 12z GEFS, warm up would be delayed until MLK day weekend, but 00z Euro EPS last night is a little quicker. All about how quickly the -EPO and PNA ridge out west break down and heights lower in the Gulf of Alaska. It seems that overall, the EPS has pushed the warm up back, so we'll see if it trends closer to the GEFS. The GEFS does suggest heights rebuild over Alaska toward the end of the run and Euro weeklies and what has already been written about beyond day 10 of the EPS are similar, so as others have mentioned, it may not be a prolonged warmup. Prior to the warmup next week, the pattern isn't great for snowstorms but maybe we can get more clippers, or maybe the Euro and GEM are onto something.

As much as the -EPO/PNA ridge worked well for us last winter, this winter it isn't helping us. All these systems have been weak on the QPF and not delivering the snow like last winter. We need the ridge to set up further west for this region otherwise it will be a cold/boring go of it. I would much rather take my chances on a complete pattern change than run the same we have had.

[andyhb]

Based on the look of the 12z GEFS, warm up would be delayed until MLK day weekend, but 00z Euro EPS last night is a little quicker. All about how quickly the -EPO and PNA ridge out west break down and heights lower in the Gulf of Alaska. It seems that overall, the EPS has pushed the warm up back, so we'll see if it trends closer to the GEFS. The GEFS does suggest heights rebuild over Alaska toward the end of the run and Euro weeklies and what has already been written about beyond day 10 of the EPS are similar, so as others have mentioned, it may not be a prolonged warmup. Prior to the warmup next week, the pattern isn't great for snowstorms but maybe we can get more clippers, or maybe the Euro and GEM are onto something.

 

This is the kind of idea I had when I posted this on C/W last night: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44280-centralwestern-medium-long-range-discussion/page-3#entry3235016

 

Good to know we're essentially on the same page.

[Chicago WX]

Gotta agree on the potential icing concerns - looks like a favorable/classic ice setup.

 

Yeah, signal looks relatively "good" at this range on the Euro op and ensembles. 

[RCNYILWX]

As much as the -EPO/PNA ridge worked well for us last winter, this winter it isn't helping us. All these systems have been weak on the QPF and not delivering the snow like last winter. We need the ridge to set up further west for this region otherwise it will be a cold/boring go of it. I would much rather take my chances on a complete pattern change than run the same we have had.

We'll be in more of a Niño type pattern with the PNA spike and unfortunately climo is pretty dry for most of the subforum in that pattern (2009-10 being an exception despite substantial blocking). Last winter the northern stream was more dominant so it produced even in a similar pattern, and also good timing when we did have neutral or -PNA with -EPO. There are some signs that Arctic and even Atlantic blocking could develop toward the end of the month, but that's not necessarily a good thing with respect to snow chances.

[RCNYILWX]

This is the kind of idea I had when I posted this on C/W last night: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44280-centralwestern-medium-long-range-discussion/page-3#entry3235016

Good to know we're essentially on the same page.

I saw that, nice post. It does seem like the relaxation/western troughing period could be pretty brief, so hopefully the timing works out for a more exciting system to track.

[Chicago WX]

Also, 12z EPS with a stout signal for something in the 11-15 day range. Closed contour on the mean around the TX pandhandle from 300-348 hours and then again at 360 just northeast of DTW. Don't usually see that at that long of a lead. Makes sense though, if the pattern advertised comes to fruition. But maybe I'm just babbling now... 

[RCNYILWX]

Here's a good example of the big change in the EPS with it's trend toward a much more stout PNA ridge out west next week, which is what the GEFS has been steadfast in showing. These graphics from the WSI model lab were posted on the NYC subforum today.

First is the 12z EPS from 1/1 valid on 1/14, second is today's 12z EPS valid on 1/14.

[andyhb]

Speaking of Pacific jet streaks. Maxes out at 212 kts at 180 hrs.

[Minnesota Meso]

Haha the best lesson I learned this season is to completely ignore wxbell and tropical tidbits "snow" maps, their ratios are always way too high and seem to be contaminated with s***t and even freezing rain totals. the snow maps at instantweathermaps and even the old school clown maps of the kuchera method are much more accurate.

 

When I went to bed last night at 11pm central time I noticed that EuroWX had done a very reasonable job of snowfall totals in Iowa, the biggest error was on the fringes of the snowfall maps, can't remember if it was to little or to much.  The Admin uses a modified Kuchera method.

[nwburbschaser]

I've been wondering if any of the mets on here follow along with the Bering Sea Rule? I'm sure a few people on here know about Joe Renken's long range forecasting, and I've been intrigued by the accuracy at times.  The April 28th outbreak this year is probably the most notable example of his forecasts.  I believe that he is calling for a couple severe outbreaks for the South heading into the second half of the month, and after looking at the 00z GFS with its depiction of that timeframe it made me wonder how much if any following ideas such as his have. 

[JoMo]

I've followed BSR and 'organic forecasting' a bit, but stopped following it during the big bust he had back in November. But, to be honest, it's not like the models do much better from long range. 

[OHweather]

I've actually been quite pesimistic the past week or so, thinking that after this cold shot that most of January would be a month to throw in the garbage. But, the Euro and especially GFS MJO forecasts try to move the MJO into more favorable phases in a week or so. This MJO pulse is currently much stronger than modelling last week had as it gets into phase 6, so we'll see if the more aggressive GEFS forecast pans out. If it does, we may avoid a prolonged warm period. Whether or not we'd get storms to accompany the lack of warmth is a question mark, as we've failed in that department for the most part this winter. The Euro ensembles that RC posted above were encouraging this afternoon. The stratospheric vortex has temporarily split although it looks to get back together in the coming days, however there look to be some hints at renewed warming in another 10 days give or take that could attempt to cause another split. So at this point we'll see what the second half of the winter brings.

[buckeye]

both the euro and ggem are getting more and more stubborn about moving out the cold, (or better put, moving in the mild), next week.  Stubborn trough on both...modified...but still seasonably cold most of next week.  

[vespasian70]

both the euro and ggem are getting more and more stubborn about moving out the cold, (or better put, moving in the mild), next week.  Stubborn trough on both...modified...but still seasonably cold most of next week.  

And it looks like we may have something to track early next week. Maybe the rest of January won't go into the toilet?

[Minnesota Meso]

both the euro and ggem are getting more and more stubborn about moving out the cold, (or better put, moving in the mild), next week.  Stubborn trough on both...modified...but still seasonably cold most of next week.  

Agreed, both of them replace the -EPO ridge with a +PNA ridge who's axis extends well into the NW Territories if not into Alaska. If so a NW flow will continue.

[jdrenken]

I've followed BSR and 'organic forecasting' a bit, but stopped following it during the big bust he had back in November. But, to be honest, it's not like the models do much better from long range.

In my defense, I dedicated a blog post to what was happening 20 days prior. I was just more stubborn than the other mets on accepting what Nuri helped to change in the pattern.

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS joins the foreign guidance with some action in the 1/12-14 period. Looks like a two-parter...with some ice in places, some snow in places. Stay tuned...

[weatherbo]

12z GFS joins the foreign guidance with some action in the 1/12-14 period. Looks like a two-parter...with some ice in places, some snow in places. Stay tuned...

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