daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Need some snowcover..this is annoying...super cold with a crusty pile here and there. NAEFS continues to look below norm in the extended range...worst as you go north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GEFS keeps the -EPO ridge going the whole run, while the EPS trends to more of a block north of AK, but that still allows for the PV to remain near Hudson Bay and plenty cold across Canada. Euro does try to raise heights at hr 240 thanks to troughing into the Pacific states but still looks like more of a southwest to northeast gradient due to all the cold nearby instead of an all out torch for most of the sub. Prior to that, as has been mentioned earlier, regardless of what happens this weekend, a nice clipper type pattern setting up, with the first potential on Monday. The EPO ridge should help keep most of Canada cold and build up the snow cover that was lost in December. For our region, we don't want any -NAO, especially a West Based -NAO, as it suppresses storms south of us. Whats your thoughts on a more consistent -AO anomaly developing later in January? No real signs of an impending SSW, but if you look at the latest ECMWF, it nearly destroys the vortex and almost initiates a SSW. I guess the one benefit is the hybrid Nina pattern that we have currently. AAM is dropping as the atmosphere is fading away from a typical Nino regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Next two weeks look terrible. Unless your idea of fun-filled winter weather is a 4-5 day dry cold shot. Ironically last nights 00z run of the ggem and euro wxbell snow maps, was one of the first times since fall that both had basically a snow shut out for most of Ohio thru 10 days. We've lost the clipper on both models too. Indices are wretched....euro shows the AO getting near neutral the first week in Jan and then spiking to the highest it's been. The PNA is heading negative, the epo positive, the NAO still positive. There is no good news and conservatively speaking it looks like a shut out for our area through at least mid January now. The 4 or 5 day cold shot coming up will just be an insult to snow lovers. Wasn't sure whether to put this in the banter thread, but I can't help it if reality sounds like a complaint. Happy New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Next two weeks look terrible. Unless your idea of fun-filled winter weather is a 4-5 day dry cold shot. Ironically last nights 00z run of the ggem and euro wxbell snow maps, was one of the first times since fall that both had basically a snow shut out for most of Ohio thru 10 days. We've lost the clipper on both models too. Indices are wretched....euro shows the AO getting near neutral the first week in Jan and then spiking to the highest it's been. The PNA is heading negative, the epo positive, the NAO still positive. There is no good news and conservatively speaking it looks like a shut out for our area through at least mid January now. The 4 or 5 day cold shot coming up will just be an insult to snow lovers. Wasn't sure whether to put this in the banter thread, but I can't help it if reality sounds like a complaint. Happy New Year!! Meh, the models have consistently shown that clipper. I think they just burped. I still feel that an area-wide 1-2" is possible next Tuesday. But yeah, other than that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Meh, the models have consistently shown that clipper. I think they just burped. I still feel that an area-wide 1-2" is possible next Tuesday. But yeah, other than that, Never underestimate the terrible performance of the models, but the model/emsemble agreement on the clipper is outstanding. Obviously the track wobbles but looks like it could lay down a nice, widespread swath of snow for many in the region. Nice, cold, fluffy, powder snow. No ptype worries. Just track/strength worries. But to me this much agreement, even though a 6 days out, is worth as much look as anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ironically last nights 00z run of the ggem and euro wxbell snow maps, was one of the first times since fall that both had basically a snow shut out for most of Ohio thru 10 days. We've lost the clipper on both models too. Your WxBell maps must be broken. 0z GGEM had most of Ohio receiving at least 2.0" of snow in the 10 day period. And both clippers were still there on that run (first one the stronger of the two). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not terribly encouraging today.... Given the accuracy of the models recently who knows what's going to be the outcome. Anyone have any idea of whats going on with the MJO as of late ?? The forecast seems to be missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 From JB Coldest run yet of Euro for Thur am.. has ORD at -20. If right, beats last years outbreak by 4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 From JB Coldest run yet of Euro for Thur am.. has ORD at -20. If right, beats last years outbreak by 4 degrees. If ord gets at least 3" from the clipper, and there's a continuous snowpack up north, and it's an ideal radiational cooling night, there's an outside shot at -20. At this point, I think -10 is a reasonable call...which is still 25 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Come on ride the train...the clipper train? A Few appear on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 just looped the 12z GFS...awful stuff the rainstorm at the end of the run is the most interesting event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Mid Jan thaw taking shape? Obviously far out but the GFS tries to build heights over the rockies and western plains. Im inclined to believe its possible but to what extent remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Mid Jan thaw taking shape? Obviously far out but the GFS tries to build heights over the rockies and western plains. Im inclined to believe its possible but to what extent remains to be seen. this is the day 10-15 ensem mean 12z euro, looking at the 12hr breakdown, the warmth is back loaded towards day 15 with +15 departures showing up over the lakes. I think a January thaw mid month has been well advertised...question is duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Even when the pattern is cold, lame activity. Remember when the east coast establishment was going apocalyptic in the fall about all the horrible snowstorms we were going to have around the CONUS? lol...yep the juiced up STJ + nino was going to make this a '09-'10 redux...mecs, secs, hecs, galore so far all they've seen is NOecs. I'm still holding out for a late January BOVS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 lol...yep the juiced up STJ + nino was going to make this a '09-'10 redux...mecs, secs, hecs, galore so far all they've seen is NOecs. I'm still holding out for a late January BOVS Feb 2010 was very active around here and that summer rocked and rolled like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Feb 2010 was very active around here and that summer rocked and rolled like no other. Summers of 2011 and 2012 say hi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Other than the little clipper in the lakes Thursday it's looking pretty quiet through mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Other than the little clipper in the lakes Thursday it's looking pretty quiet through mid January. At this rate, I can't wait for spring as this boring winter thusfar isn't fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 At this rate, I can't wait for spring as this boring winter thusfar isn't fun to track. Hopefully it actually arrives on time...none of that delayed garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hopefully it actually arrives on time...none of that delayed garbage. I wouldn't mind an prolonged spring starting around March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Been zzzzzz for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 For a Nino winter the STJ has been surprisingly anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 AO, NAO, and PNA all look blah in the LR.... But maybe some hope with the MJO moving into phase 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow... looks like a heck mild period taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow... looks like a heck mild period taking shape. 6z GFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow... looks like a heck mild period taking shape. Looks like a traditional January thaw coming at about the right time. We had a big thaw last year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow... looks like a heck mild period taking shape. bring it! seriously, I would not mind a nice thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm not opposed to this thaw running through the end of winter... bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro and Canadian both keep trying to get something going in the Jan 12-14 timeframe. We'll see. Thaw or warm-up definitely on track for mid-month. Then the Euro ensembles start building heights out west at the end of the run. And if one were to believe yesterday's Euro weeklies, which is dubious at times, colder pattern comes back for the last week of this month. Take it FWIW...but I have doubts that Spring is setting in anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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