Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[michsnowfreak]

The problem here is that it was supposed to be cold already.  Back in November, the call was for the pattern to change back to cold after the first week of December, then after mid-month, then right before Christmas, then the last week of the month, and now we're talking maybe sometime in January.  I'll believe it when I see it at this point.  Besides that, whether or not there are a few decent snow events or cold periods, winter is all but guaranteed at this point to be warmer than normal with below normal snowfall.  Hard to really get excited knowing how strongly climo now favors that outcome.

The problem with the calls of the pattern changing to cold after the first week of Dec (I actually remember it as after the first 2 weeks, but I dont doubt some said first week)...is that the supposed torch that was to start December was pushed back itself until mid-December.

 

Also, kinda hard to say that its a guarentee winter will be warmer than normal. There have been MANY winters that ended up colder than normal despite a mild December.

[Chicago WX]

Problem with December, and the rushed or pre-mature calls back to cold, was that Canada was essentially wiped of cold air by the Pac Jet and AK vortex. It takes awhile to reload, and we're seeing the consequences right now. That being said, the NA pattern is changing with a reload of cold poised to make inroads into the CONUS soon. Euro ensembles of late seem to have been much better at detailing all of this than the GEFS...specifically the cold being centered west and central CONUS first and with a SE ridge to boot. That ridge of course can be a good or bad thing, depending on one's location. As it stands now, I'd rather be in the western part of the sub-forum for the first system taking aim. But, if the -EPO persists for the first two weeks of January, which I think it will...and in combo with some SE ridging...I think many will have a chance eventually of seeing some appreciable snow. I don't see too many squashed southern sliders in our near future.

 

December sucked, no pulling any punches. But January and the rest of winter is salvageable. Just have to forget December 2014 ever happened.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The problem with the calls of the pattern changing to cold after the first week of Dec (I actually remember it as after the first 2 weeks, but I dont doubt some said first week)...is that the supposed torch that was to start December was pushed back itself until mid-December.

 

Also, kinda hard to say that its a guarentee winter will be warmer than normal. There have been MANY winters that ended up colder than normal despite a mild December.

December 1984 is a case in point. A very warm December in Toronto (presumably in Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo as well), followed by a very cold January of 1985. November 1984 was also cool in Toronto, albeit not as cool as November 2014. Take a look at the warmth of December 1984:

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01%7C2012-12-01&cmdB1=Go&Year=1984&Month=12&Day=27

[michsnowfreak]

Problem with December, and the rushed or pre-mature calls back to cold, was that Canada was essentially wiped of cold air by the Pac Jet and AK vortex. It takes awhile to reload, and we're seeing the consequences right now. That being said, the NA pattern is changing with a reload of cold poised to make inroads into the CONUS soon. Euro ensembles of late seem to have been much better at detailing all of this than the GEFS...specifically the cold being centered west and central CONUS first and with a SE ridge to boot. That ridge of course can be a good or bad thing, depending on one's location. As it stands now, I'd rather be in the western part of the sub-forum for the first system taking aim. But, if the -EPO persists for the first two weeks of January, which I think it will...and in combo with some SE ridging...I think many will have a chance eventually of seeing some appreciable snow. I don't see too many squashed southern sliders in our near future.

 

December sucked, no pulling any punches. But January and the rest of winter is salvageable. Just have to forget December 2014 ever happened.

If we could have switched November & December, it wouldnt seem NEARLY as bad. Sounds so weird to say that but its true. I mean, especially being used to snowless Novembers lately.

[michsnowfreak]

December 1984 is a case in point. A very warm December in Toronto (presumably in Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo as well), followed by a very cold January of 1985. November 1984 was also cool in Toronto, albeit not as cool as November 2014. Take a look at the warmth of December 1984:

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01%7C2012-12-01&cmdB1=Go&Year=1984&Month=12&Day=27

Yes indeed. Very mild December (there were a few snowfalls though, unlike this year) and then the arctic hounds unleashed.

[Chicago WX]

If we could have switched November & December, it wouldnt seem NEARLY as bad. Sounds so weird to say that but its true. I mean, especially being used to snowless Novembers lately.

 

lol, I was thinking the exact same thing earlier today. Again, December sucked royally, no doubt about it...but November was pretty good, all things considered. Eh, all we can do is hope for some fun in JFM...and even A.   

[Snowstorms]

December 1984 is a case in point. A very warm December in Toronto (presumably in Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo as well), followed by a very cold January of 1985. November 1984 was also cool in Toronto, albeit not as cool as November 2014. Take a look at the warmth of December 1984:

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01%7C2012-12-01&cmdB1=Go&Year=1984&Month=12&Day=27

 

1984-85 was a low end moderate La nina, lol. We have a weak El Nino currently, but atmospherically speaking it does resemble a Nina more than a Nino.

 

1984-85 heights; 

 

 

Note the SE ridge, East Based -NAO, massive Aleutian Ridge (-EPO), and -AO. In some retrospect, it could be a potential candidate for the coming weeks especially since the Ensembles are portraying this;

 

 

One thing that strikes out the most is the SE Ridge and EPO block (poleward). However, without any decent -AO/NAO, any cold air we do get will likely be transient rather than persistent. In fact, it almost looks like 07-08, but with more cold air in the region. If it comes to fruition, it would be a nearly perfect set-up for our region if all factors can play the game together. I do believe we'll see a small warm-up mid-month as the Aleutian Ridge retrogrades and the cold air is more focused out West. MJO plots also move the MJO through unfavourable phases around Jan 9-11. Lets see! 

[wxhstn74]

So: Where's our Winter and Snow Thus Far??? Looking Back and Foward into the New Year of 2015

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/12/so-wheres-our-winter-and-snow-thus-far.html

[DAFF]

I found it funny how Bill was talking about the same EPO topic as us earlier in the day. Perhaps we can salvage something out of the weather in the upcoming days....

[jbcmh81]

The problem with the calls of the pattern changing to cold after the first week of Dec (I actually remember it as after the first 2 weeks, but I dont doubt some said first week)...is that the supposed torch that was to start December was pushed back itself until mid-December.

 

Also, kinda hard to say that its a guarentee winter will be warmer than normal. There have been MANY winters that ended up colder than normal despite a mild December.

 

The entire month has been mild, so it doesn't matter as much if the call was 1 or 2 weeks.  It's been 4.  Regarding the supposed upcoming cold, a few days in the 20s-low 30s is not exactly something to write home about in January, especially when there's yet one more warm period showing up the first week of the month. 

 

I'm sure for more northern locations, it may be less of a guarantee, but in the 70-south corridor, it's extremely rare, if not entirely unheard of.  It would have to take the rest of the winter performing well above average.  It's not just that December was warm, but also snowless.  No winter that had this ended up very good.  The sample size is small, but not a single one was colder than average or snowier than average.  Even adding in November's snow, the total to date is historically low, and only one winter ever under the same conditions ended up with above average snowfall, and that was largely due to an extremely snowy April.  None of the winters in either group ended up colder than average.  So again, maybe you guys further north have better history on your side, but the turnaround here would have to be pretty epic, and there's nothing really to indicate that it will buck history.

[Rainman]

Quick post: The ECMWF really attacks the stratospheric vortex throughout yesterday's 12z run (only available every 24hr, so no 00z). This is a positive sign. It begins splitting the 10mb circulation in two by around 120 hours. Here is the 240 panel:

Note the continued strong warming that, if correct, could even threaten the Canadian-side vortex.

Also illustrated by the forecast spike in wave 2 at 60N (second panel).

Regarding the pattern change, it was supposed to be around mid-Dec then got pushed back to between Christmas and New Years. Still looks good. The unforseen (by most, anyway) caveat is the emergence of the southeast ridge. Get used to it. It probably isn't going anywhere. If you live further south, what can I say? Sucks to live further south

[IWXwx]

 The unforseen (by most, anyway) caveat is the emergence of the southeast ridge. Get used to it. It probably isn't going anywhere. If you live further south, what can I say? Sucks to live further south

 

Thanks for that. At least that should eliminate suppression, right?

[blizzardof96]

An update to my thoughts from a couple of weeks ago. In point form...

1. MJO is currently over P4/5 and is expected to move eastward towards the western pacific. These phases favour a pac jet extension and EPO spike over the next eight days meaning the core of the cold shifts further and further east between now and ~1/10. 

2. By ~1/5-1/9 models agree that another trough amplifies over eastern canada with the core of the cold from winnipeg to gaspe including the big cities of eastern canada(YYZ/YUL/YOW). This cold shot has the potential to outdo the one over the next couple of days and the one proceeding the 1/3-5 event as the strat induced PV split hangs just east of HB. Clipper pattern during this timeframe?

4. By ~1/10 main CHI forcing is expected to shift back towards the W IO as the eastern wave dies near the 180W convergence zone(-/+ OLR couplet zone or zonal wind intersection). This means that the mean trough axis should set up between the west coast and the rockies from ~1/10-1/25. In the 1/10-1/25 period, how far west the trough axis really sets up is going to be key for the midwest as it can do well in the snow department when the trough axis hugs the rockies in Jan. If it hangs out along the west coast more often then SW flow could be a major problem. In the northeast, i'm not seeing too many positive signs. Beyond 1/10 you will need to wait for the SSWE if you want an interesting pattern IMO.

5. Beyond this point we will eventually see a full fledged NAM shift(once u winds actually shift near 60N/10mb). When this happens is still up for debate and it will help determine the arrival of a more negative NAO/AO. The current attempt at a true SSW will fail although it will dislodge and seriously weaker the PV. Right now, my overall thoughts for Feb are more nino like with lowest heights over the eastern/southeastern u.s and stronger greenland blocking. It is not uncommon in -QBO/Nino/Smax/+PDO years to have a nino dec/nina Jan/nino Feb and we have moved strongly in that direction already. The Feb evolution depends strongly on a SSWE, and there are no signs of that final blow in the next 15 days. Late Jan may offer up some more potential as the wave approaches the MC and this follows the typical nino progression.

[michsnowfreak]

The entire month has been mild, so it doesn't matter as much if the call was 1 or 2 weeks.  It's been 4.  Regarding the supposed upcoming cold, a few days in the 20s-low 30s is not exactly something to write home about in January, especially when there's yet one more warm period showing up the first week of the month. 

 

I'm sure for more northern locations, it may be less of a guarantee, but in the 70-south corridor, it's extremely rare, if not entirely unheard of.  It would have to take the rest of the winter performing well above average.  It's not just that December was warm, but also snowless.  No winter that had this ended up very good.  The sample size is small, but not a single one was colder than average or snowier than average.  Even adding in November's snow, the total to date is historically low, and only one winter ever under the same conditions ended up with above average snowfall, and that was largely due to an extremely snowy April.  None of the winters in either group ended up colder than average.  So again, maybe you guys further north have better history on your side, but the turnaround here would have to be pretty epic, and there's nothing really to indicate that it will buck history.

No the entire month hasnt been mild. Based on the December f6, Columbus had a negative temp departure until around Dec 13 or 14th. Detroit had a negative departure until December 14th. Which exactly illustrates my point. The supposed torch/inferno that was forecast to hit was pushed back back back and really muted from what it was original modeled as. But that said, it still turned into a more prolonged mild spell rather than a huge torch.

 

December was indeed snowless, a very rare bird here (as in, if we stay at a trace, this will only be the 2nd time on record we had no measurable snow in Dec) but then again November was snowier and much colder than normal. Its a very odd month...in that while it has been mild, its been nowhere record warm. Detroit will not make the top 20 warmest Decembers, and Im guessing Columbus may not either? This start to winter (Nov+Dec) is already unlike any I can find, so so much for any sort of sample size . And BY NO MEANS am I saying winter will be good, just that its certainly possible. Obviously a mild start increases the odds of a mild winter, not to mention the old climo-karma following last winter, but many cold winters feature 1 mild month. Guess we will just have to wait and see,

[michsnowfreak]

great analysis above Rainman & blizzard!

[Thundersnow12]

I know it's out in la la land on the Euro EPS control run, but I've never seen a 1064mb high even in the models in the US. Maybe some others have? 

 

[IWXwx]

I know it's out in la la land on the Euro EPS control run, but I've never seen a 1064mb high even in the models in the US. Maybe some others have? 

 

eps_slp_c_conus_36.png

 

I can't answer that, but I noticed the op GFS has a 1057mb high there in the same timeframe, which also leads to a nice spine running surface low.

[HighTechEE]

I know it's out in la la land on the Euro EPS control run, but I've never seen a 1064mb high even in the models in the US. Maybe some others have? 

 

eps_slp_c_conus_36.png

 

Here is one, shows 1068mb high over Montana on Christmas Eve in 1983, went below zero in Ohio for 3 days!

http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?mod=ncep&yyyy=1983&mm=12&dd=24&run=12〈=en&area=na

[daddylonglegs]

NAEFS continues to show brutal cold in the extended range... this could get interesting.  Hope we don't have subzero temps with no snow cover...deep frost penetration

[jbcmh81]

No the entire month hasnt been mild. Based on the December f6, Columbus had a negative temp departure until around Dec 13 or 14th. Detroit had a negative departure until December 14th. Which exactly illustrates my point. The supposed torch/inferno that was forecast to hit was pushed back back back and really muted from what it was original modeled as. But that said, it still turned into a more prolonged mild spell rather than a huge torch.

 

December was indeed snowless, a very rare bird here (as in, if we stay at a trace, this will only be the 2nd time on record we had no measurable snow in Dec) but then again November was snowier and much colder than normal. Its a very odd month...in that while it has been mild, its been nowhere record warm. Detroit will not make the top 20 warmest Decembers, and Im guessing Columbus may not either? This start to winter (Nov+Dec) is already unlike any I can find, so so much for any sort of sample size . And BY NO MEANS am I saying winter will be good, just that its certainly possible. Obviously a mild start increases the odds of a mild winter, not to mention the old climo-karma following last winter, but many cold winters feature 1 mild month. Guess we will just have to wait and see,

 

From the 1st-13th, highs ranged between 36 and 61.  Highs were 40 and above on 9 of those days.  The negative departure was slight. So no, it didn't torch during those 13 days, but it was by no means cold, either.  And it's still going to end up a top 20 warmest December here. Hard to talk about muted warmth when that's the end result. 

 

I'm sure Michigan will do better in the end, it usually does.  But for down here, TOD was already called.  I could end up wrong, but I wouldn't put any money on it.  It would have to truly be historic from this point on. 

[DAFF]

This might not be very scientific, but every year the January thaw is more less normal part of winter. With the early onset of winter weather in November, the warmth of the past two weeks could be just the January thaw in December. Perhaps some insight of why the January thaw happens can paint a picture of the future for this winter season. All we need is a little snow and build from there.

[michsnowfreak]

This might not be very scientific, but every year the January thaw is more less normal part of winter. With the early onset of winter weather in November, the warmth of the past two weeks could be just the January thaw in December. Perhaps some insight of why the January thaw happens can paint a picture of the future for this winter season. All we need is a little snow and build from there.

interesting...

[OHweather]

Don't have a ton to add to the analysis here. The pattern change is finally on our doorstep, it was a a few days slower than I envisioned, and none of the potentials during the last 10 days of December will end up really working out.

 

 

The point about the MJO always dying as it approaches the Dateline is interesting, and is supported by OLR plots over the last several months. We have had a hard time getting convection even too the Dateline. We don't want it too much farther east because then an east coast trough becomes favored. None of the models show that occurring through the first couple weeks of January. I'm not really sure why the UL convergence near the Dateline has been so persistent, but a possible thought is the persistent -WPO?

 

Anyways, a strong -EPO is good for us because it tends to deliver the best cold just to our west, and with no strong -NAO in site, SW to NE moving storms will be favored, with the first possibility next weekend...the GFS shows a couple more potentials after that, with some serious cold getting involved too.

 

The ensembles appear to be agreeing on the pull back of the cold occurring a bit later than I thought, probably more like a week to 10 days into January, due to the very nice -EPO into early January. The GFS and Euro look gradually better in the stratosphere, so I still think the idea of a prolonged period of really cold air may be on the table when the MJO moves out of the more unfavorable phases after mid-month if we can split the statospheric vortex and develop a better -AO.

 

With a gradient pattern with a SE ridge setting up over the next couple of weeks, some of the sub-forum could eat into their snowfall departures. The potential for signficant cold might also bode well for lake effect locations. The farther south you are it will be harder. December was just too unbelievably snowless to salvage a snowy winter in areas farther south that can't rely on clippers, lake effect or get snow storms into April, but I wouldn't throw in the towel north of I-70 for a decent winter snowise (average or somewhat above) given the potential the gradient pattern may bring into early January, and the fact that those areas still have 2-3 months to get good snows.

[blizzardof96]

Don't have a ton to add to the analysis here. The pattern change is finally on our doorstep, it was a a few days slower than I envisioned, and none of the potentials during the last 10 days of December will end up really working out.

 

OLR.png

 

The point about the MJO always dying as it approaches the Dateline is interesting, and is supported by OLR plots over the last several months. We have had a hard time getting convection even too the Dateline. We don't want it too much farther east because then an east coast trough becomes favored. None of the models show that occurring through the first couple weeks of January. I'm not really sure why the UL convergence near the Dateline has been so persistent, but a possible thought is the persistent -WPO?

 

Anyways, a strong -EPO is good for us because it tends to deliver the best cold just to our west, and with no strong -NAO in site, SW to NE moving storms will be favored, with the first possibility next weekend...the GFS shows a couple more potentials after that, with some serious cold getting involved too.

 

The ensembles appear to be agreeing on the pull back of the cold occurring a bit later than I thought, probably more like a week to 10 days into January, due to the very nice -EPO into early January. The GFS and Euro look gradually better in the stratosphere, so I still think the idea of a prolonged period of really cold air may be on the table when the MJO moves out of the more unfavorable phases after mid-month if we can split the statospheric vortex and develop a better -AO.

 

With a gradient pattern with a SE ridge setting up over the next couple of weeks, some of the sub-forum could eat into their snowfall departures. The potential for signficant cold might also bode well for lake effect locations. The farther south you are it will be harder. December was just too unbelievably snowless to salvage a snowy winter in areas farther south that can't rely on clippers, lake effect or get snow storms into April, but I wouldn't throw in the towel north of I-70 for a decent winter snowise (average or somewhat above) given the potential the gradient pattern may bring into early January, and the fact that those areas still have 2-3 months to get good snows.

The extremely -QBO could also be a big part in this -/+ OLR couplet west of the dateline.

OLR anoms in most 3 most negative QBO years. Note the off equator forcing east of 180W and the -/+ OLR gradient near 160E.

 

Dec 1-20 OLR has a very similar look. Fair to say that the state of the QBO modulates the walker cell configuration. This year, the WC is behaving like a WB nino despite the basin wide look to the SST anoms, although nino 1+2 are noticeably cooler.

[OHweather]

The extremely -QBO could also be a big part in this -/+ OLR couplet west of the dateline.

OLR anoms in most 3 most negative QBO years. Note the off equator forcing east of 180W and the -/+ OLR gradient near 160E.

XpaoHqfRtZ.png

 

Dec 1-20 OLR has a very similar look. Fair to say that the state of the QBO modulates the walker cell configuration. This year, the WC is behaving like a WB nino despite the basin wide look to the SST anoms, although nino 1+2 are noticeably cooler.

Screen Shot 2014-12-28 at 11.05.22 AM.png

The QBO is something I really need to look into more, especially cases where it's strongly negative or positive. The one good piece of news is that the QBO has been strongly negative since July, and most strong -QBO events tend to come up quickly after 4-6 months, so we should eventually see the QBO value rise, probably some during January and more significantly during February.

 

The pattern resembled a west-based Nino through about November, it almost seems more Nina-like with the focus being over the Indian Ocean since a few days in December. Warm Decembers with a GOA low aren't uncommon in El Ninos, but the forcing over the Indian Ocean seems a bit more unusual. Hopefully the QBO comes up some starting January and allows a more Nino-like pattern to develop late in the month, if only because I'll be in the Ohio Valley and we don't do well with Nina-like gradient patterns there.

[cyclone77]

Since the Jan 3rd storm is starting to look like a heap of trash I think our next viable threat for meaningful winter precip comes with a decent looking clipper pattern shaping up beyond Jan 5th.  As that big ridge pumps up in the west we get a nice baroclinic zone setting up from the Dakotas southeastward.  Euro has shown a few respectable clippers in the Jan 6-9 range.  Since the SW flow systems are underperforming this season, I think a good clipper pattern like what's showing up in this range could finally lay down some snow for many of us. 

[A-L-E-K]

Since the Jan 3rd storm is starting to look like a heap of trash I think our next viable threat for meaningful winter precip comes with a decent looking clipper pattern shaping up beyond Jan 5th.  As that big ridge pumps up in the west we get a nice baroclinic zone setting up from the Dakotas southeastward.  Euro has shown a few respectable clippers in the Jan 6-9 range.  Since the SW flow systems are underperforming this season, I think a good clipper pattern like what's showing up in this range could finally lay down some snow for many of us. 

 

 

yeah, this is probably the first better than DAB setup for most, that is unless we slid on the wrong side of that baroclinic zone

[DAFF]

-EPO looks to be moving in the right direction to keep the cold around...

[RCNYILWX]

-EPO looks to be moving in the right direction to keep the cold around...

GEFS keeps the -EPO ridge going the whole run, while the EPS trends to more of a block north of AK, but that still allows for the PV to remain near Hudson Bay and plenty cold across Canada. Euro does try to raise heights at hr 240 thanks to troughing into the Pacific states but still looks like more of a southwest to northeast gradient due to all the cold nearby instead of an all out torch for most of the sub. Prior to that, as has been mentioned earlier, regardless of what happens this weekend, a nice clipper type pattern setting up, with the first potential on Monday.

[snowlover2]

The clipper showing up on the models around the 6-7th looks promising.