RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 euro is snooze central and then gets ready to unleash an epic torch cold winter calls dropping left and right It's not a good idea to look at the end of an operational model run, even the Euro. The Day 10 EPS h5 mean is not indicative of an epic torch incoming. It's a pretty good look for here with a big -EPO ridge providing cold air and west southwest flow aloft due to the southeast ridge. Doesn't guarantee we'll finally get snow here, but I think we'll have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 euro is snooze central and then gets ready to unleash an epic torch cold winter calls dropping left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Torch potential on the euro should effectively put the entire sub-forum on suicide watch. I think at that point most posters will have excepted defeat. I don't think it would be as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Too many trolls in this sub-forum these days. Here's your epic torch on the 0z EPS...5-10 and 10-15 day mean 850 anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Here's the 850 mb anomaly map at day 10 on the 00z EPS. Again not even close to indicating an epic torch on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Too many trolls in this sub-forum these days. Here's your epic torch on the 0z EPS...5-10 and 10-15 day mean 850 anomalies. eps 5-10.png eps 10-15.png Beat me to it, but yeah, posts like that add nothing to the discussion. The 5 day 850 mb mean anomalies you posted are also better than the snapshot I posted. I think given what the EPS is showing, the quick rise of the EPO back to neutral on the ESRL teleconnection page by the end of the run is probably too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Too many trolls in this sub-forum these days. Here's your epic torch on the 0z EPS...5-10 and 10-15 day mean 850 anomalies. eps 5-10.png eps 10-15.png Great job in fighting the trolls! Wow what an inferno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Too many trolls in this sub-forum these days. Here's your epic torch on the 0z EPS...5-10 and 10-15 day mean 850 anomalies. eps 5-10.png eps 10-15.png Yep... They show up for a lol or a zzz then slither away. The bad thing is, we are starting to get more quality posters that know their stuff, and I enjoy having them. Likely to eventually leave because trolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If the torch is not on the table... Why is everything pointing to warmth. NAO(+) AO(+) PNA(-) MJO sector 5 Was looking for the EPO and WPO but can't find the 4 sector chart shown a few pages ago. Not trolling but rather trying to research my findings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If the torch is not on the table... Why is everything pointing to warmth. NAO(+) AO(+) PNA(-) MJO sector 5 Was looking for the EPO and WPO but can't find the 4 sector chart shown a few pages ago. Not trolling but rather trying to research my findings. -EPO and -WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If the torch is not on the table... Why is everything pointing to warmth. NAO(+) AO(+) PNA(-) MJO sector 5 Was looking for the EPO and WPO but can't find the 4 sector chart shown a few pages ago. Not trolling but rather trying to research my findings. Someone who better knows all those things can explain it....but I can tell you this, we often get even snowier winters with a +NAO than the vaunted -NAO. And I have reached that point...Im all about snowcover, but I had my epic snowcover last winter...just give me snow any way shape or form lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 So is there an order of domination with respect to temperature trends ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Cold is being driven by -EPO...pretty clear when looking at the 500H maps on the EPS and GEFS (ridging into AK). I also agree with Ricky that the rise shown by ESRL maps is probably too fast. It looks to be a reasonably stable pattern through the first week to 10 days of January. Thereafter who knows, but wintry opportunities are on the doorstep. Hopefully most of us cash in... 0z EPS and 6z GEFS EPO forecast charts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Warmest December on record? Looks like a good shot at top two warmest anyways. Top is December 2006, which is currently third warmest on record. Bottom is this month. Note that the scale is different, but if you correct for the different scale it looks like the both the extent and magnitude of this month's warmth exceeds that of December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I could be wrong, but what the teleconnections really help to measure are the height trends in a specific region. The thing is lower heights tend to correlate with colder temps while higher heights tend to correlate with warmer temps, which is where the "torch" calls are coming form (as a +NAO and +AO typically leads to higher heights in our region). But even then, there are other factors involved that determine the extent of how much warmer or colder those temps are though besides height levels (such as snowcover, sun angle, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Epic torch? I'm not seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Warmest December on record? Looks like a good shot at top two warmest anyways. Top is December 2006, which is currently third warmest on record. Bottom is this month. Note that the scale is different, but if you correct for the different scale it looks like the both the extent and magnitude of this month's warmth exceeds that of December 2006. Dec06TDeptUS.png MonthTDeptUS.png It will probably be a top 15 warmest December, but the last 3-4 days of the month will really knock down the anomalies, especially for the upper Midwest States. Edit: Top 5 warmest December is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Epic torch? I'm not seeing that. It will be an epic torch if you live south and east of say Nashville with the +NAO/-PNA. As for everyone around here with the -AO forecast to return and the -EPO going gangbusters, there is no torch coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Small sample size, but...a -EPO can rule the day. 2013-14 DJFM AO: +0.80 2013-14 DJFM NAO: +3.10 On the other hand, a +EPO has a pretty strong signal for warmth. +NAO is also a warmer signal, but not nearly to the extent of a +EPO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 A good link to the Forecasts of 500mb Height Teleconnection Indices... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ Good learning episode today. Thanks everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Great discussion guys! I don't mean to derail the thread, but I couldn't help but notice that they will be barbequing and sun bathing on the beaches of Barrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It will be an epic torch if you live south and east of say Nashville with the +NAO/-PNA. As for everyone around here with the -AO forecast to return and the -EPO going gangbusters, there is no torch coming. -EPO seems to keep winter rocking in this part of the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Great discussion guys! I don't mean to derail the thread, but I couldn't help but notice that they will be barbequing and sun bathing on the beaches of Barrow. greasyshorts.png It's -22F there right now, supposed to warm up to +13F in a couple days. That's a torch by their standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It will probably be a top 15 warmest December, but the last 3-4 days of the month will really knock down the anomalies, especially for the upper Midwest States. Edit: Top 5 warmest December is likely. It will be interesting what the final national numbers are....not only for Dec but also for the year 2014. Locally, based on the forecast through the 31st, December will probably not even crack into the top 20 warmest. Using the mean temp at Detroit and the forecast through the 31st, the estimated December temp will be 33.9F, which would be the 24th warmest Dec on record. The year 2014 should finish right around 20th coldest for Detroit, though most of those years are from long ago, and it will be the coldest year since 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 todays 240-hr euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 todays 240-hr euro So basically, suppression and bitter cold followed by more suppression and severe cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 todays 240-hr euro yea but it's about the worst snow pattern you can have with cold weather for our subforum. Suppressive and sheared out on the southern flank, and no clipper highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Too many trolls in this sub-forum these days. Here's your epic torch on the 0z EPS...5-10 and 10-15 day mean 850 anomalies. eps 5-10.png eps 10-15.png The problem here is that it was supposed to be cold already. Back in November, the call was for the pattern to change back to cold after the first week of December, then after mid-month, then right before Christmas, then the last week of the month, and now we're talking maybe sometime in January. I'll believe it when I see it at this point. Besides that, whether or not there are a few decent snow events or cold periods, winter is all but guaranteed at this point to be warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. Hard to really get excited knowing how strongly climo now favors that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The problem here is that it was supposed to be cold already. Back in November, the call was for the pattern to change back to cold after the first week of December, then after mid-month, then right before Christmas, then the last week of the month, and now we're talking maybe sometime in January. I'll believe it when I see it at this point. Besides that, whether or not there are a few decent snow events or cold periods, winter is all but guaranteed at this point to be warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. Hard to really get excited knowing how strongly climo now favors that outcome. With both the EPO and PNA going into the tank, coupled by both the east and west based NAO staying positive I don't see any reason why the cold should stay away from the entire forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 So basically, suppression and bitter cold followed by more suppression and severe cold... Basically. Obviously hoping that doesnt verify (ie we get little snow). I was merely joking regarding the Euro 10 day torch posts from earlier, nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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