michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 STL to LAF to DTW to YYZ. Models and their ensembles have been locking in on that period for a storm for a few days now as the low in the SW ejects northeast. We were discussing a few winters ago how rare it is for STL to DTW to YYZ to get in on the same snowstorm. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 We were discussing a few winters ago how rare it is for STL to DTW to YYZ to get in on the same snowstorm. Interesting. Two years ago today is one that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 There was a strong storm this past January right around this exact timeframe. I believe most of Chicagoland received upwards of a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Two years ago today is one that comes to mind. Ah I remember it well. Best storm of the winter, although not the best part of winter 2012-13. I think Jan 31, 1982 was one of the biggest EDIT- STL got zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 There was a strong storm this past January right around this exact timeframe. I believe most of Chicagoland received upwards of a foot. Jan 5/6. Southeast MI received 9-17 inches from south to north. This is the storm that ushered in the infamous Polar Votex record cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ah I remember it well. Best storm of the winter, although not the best part of winter 2012-13. I think Jan 31, 1982 was one of the biggest EDIT- STL got zip Really? My mistake. Maybe it was LAF that did well with that one, rather than STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 GEM also with a fairly impressive storm next weekend. Timing of that northern stream s/w coming in off the Pacific is going to be key. Suppression to warm rainer are all possibilities at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Really? My mistake. Maybe it was LAF that did well with that one, rather than STL. Tim could tell you how much we got on 12/26/2012 but I think it was around 4-5". Blizz of 1999 is a storm where all 4 places got it good, though there was a lot of mixed precip in the St. Louis area and they received much less snow than they could have. Another candidate may be 12/15-16/2007. What did YYZ get in that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 We were discussing a few winters ago how rare it is for STL to DTW to YYZ to get in on the same snowstorm. Interesting. The one that's even more rare is the STL-IND-DTW snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Tim could tell you how much we got on 12/26/2012 but I think it was around 4-5". Blizz of 1999 is a storm where all 4 places got it good, though there was a lot of mixed precip in the St. Louis area and they received much less snow than they could have. Another candidate may be 12/15-16/2007. What did YYZ get in that storm? That's not bad. 12/26/12 didn't have an epic snowfall maxima anyway IIRC. Although I remember the NAM producing some nice clown maps around 72 hrs out. Dec 16, 2007 storm dropped ~9" at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 The one that's even more rare is the STL-IND-DTW snowstorm... Yeah I agree. At least STL-LAF-DTW-YYZ roughly fall on the same line. Besides the storm in early January 2014, the blizz of 99 is probably one of the better examples of all 3 places cashing in, at least in relatively recent times. Totals from Jan 1-3, 1999: STL: 8.0" IND: 10.9" DTW: 11.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z ECMWF, GEM, and GFS are all in agreement taking the surface low next weekend between central and northwest Ohio. Obviously the typical possible outcomes remain in play, but I as I stated before, I like the dependence mainly on just large scale features because it increases confidence in the model forecasts. That statement has now been followed by some very nice model agreement. The GEM has captured it for the first time today. The GFS had a truncated version of it yesterday that was good enough and it has a very nice 192 hour simulation today. For the EC, this is one in a string of several consecutive runs now. There remains a lot of spread among the ensembles to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Jan 5/6. Southeast MI received 9-17 inches from south to north. This is the storm that ushered in the infamous Polar Votex record cold wave. what a snowstorm that was 8-12" down here then brutal cold best storm of the season! easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 B/C the LR modelling has been doing so bad lately I am reluctant to commit to any particular solution. What we have a good handle on is the strong downwelling wave 1 that should peak by ~D5, soon to be followed by a wave 2 spike whether that is upwelling/downwelling or both. In order for the 60N/10mb U wind to go negative we will need some downwelling wave 2 help. By D10, most of the vortex is in bad condition especially the mid strat. Also important to note that the main area of PV is on our side of the pole which always helps. Beyond D10 is where the forecast gets tricky. What once was a really good look for w2 on the ec eps/GEFS via Siberian RWB has since transformed into a weaker wave 1 pattern. To finish off a very weak vortex we need E european heights to rise just one more time beyond D10 in order to attain true SSWE status. D12 on the EC EPS Screen Shot 2014-12-25 at 6.33.09 AM.png Re the GWO talk, I think the state of the ossc is probably reflecting the enhanced IO forcing. The main MJO wave is expected to return to the IO yet again as soon as 1/10-15. This has been an unexpected development this winter with a real lack of traditional equator forcing east of the dateline. This is one of the reasons why the pattern should have some nina component for much of Jan IMO. compday.3RLIH12ZL_.gif Note the convergence zone ~180W which is helping kill any low freq CHI moving in that direction. Roundy plots kill most of the eastern wave by ~1/15, with the main forcing over the IO. compday.YKrZB3PW4y.gif Thank you for the response. That's a good point about the convection in the western tropical Pacific. That convergence zone near the dateline has been there all winter and I guess it is just going to keep putting the kibosh on the MJO right as it approaches phase 7. That explains the Nina-like forcing and this ongoing SE ridge. The ridge could be great for this forum at the right amplitude, but a disaster if it's too strong. Regarding the stratosphere, I noticed in yesterday's 12z that the attempt at splitting the vortex is there, but unimpressive. The ensembles have been torching it on and off for some time now. Let's hope we can get some enjoyable weather from this this high amplitude tropospheric pattern while it simultaneously does some work on the stratosphere in the meantime. You are definitely a long range/stratosphere expert and your thoughts are always appreciated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I am impressed nobody has started a thread yet............... Nobody wants to jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z Euro would probably be good for some people on the 3rd-4th. Took a pretty big jump east from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z ECMWF, GEM, and GFS are all in agreement taking the surface low next weekend between central and northwest Ohio. Obviously the typical possible outcomes remain in play, but I as I stated before, I like the dependence mainly on just large scale features because it increases confidence in the model forecasts. That statement has now been followed by some very nice model agreement. The GEM has captured it for the first time today. The GFS had a truncated version of it yesterday that was good enough and it has a very nice 192 hour simulation today. For the EC, this is one in a string of several consecutive runs now. There remains a lot of spread among the ensembles to work out. Just checked in the NOGAPS and even that guy is in the game through 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Just checked in the NOGAPS and even that guy is in the game through 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 GEM also with a fairly impressive storm next weekend. Timing of that northern stream s/w coming in off the Pacific is going to be key. Suppression to warm rainer are all possibilities at this point. 12z Euro has more or less a perfect track for our area with the mixing line just south of the lake shore and 8-12" into the city. Too bad its 8 days out... EDIT: 12z EC EPS has a mean track NW of the OP (from N OK to ORD to Central On). Lots of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I am impressed nobody has started a thread yet............... Give it until Sunday then I think it will warrent a thread if the storm is still looking good for the region. I would suggest Hoosier starting it, as he has had a good run for storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z Euro has more or less a perfect track for our area with the mixing line just south of the lake shore and 8-12" into the city. Too bad its 8 days out... EDIT: 12z EC EPS has a mean track NW of the OP (from N OK to ORD to Central On). Lots of spread. EPS does have a pretty wide spread, though considering where this is ejecting the ones far to the north would probably have a hard time verifying especially since the pattern isn't extremely meridional in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 18z pGFS is a pretty nice hit for ORD to DTW to YYZ, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Model consensus is off the charts for this lead time right now. Even the 18z GFS at 190 hours isn't wavering. There really isn't much going on with this system. Closed low will get kicked out and that's that. It will come down to where the low closes off and how quickly the kicker digs into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 EPS does have a pretty wide spread, though considering where this is ejecting the ones far to the north would probably have a hard time verifying especially since the pattern isn't extremely meridional in the east. Totally agree. And a lack of strong deepening potential takes that automatic NW trend off the table too. If nothing much changes, convection across the south might pull it east a bit within 48 hrs or so of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's great to have Rainman join the fray here at amwx. Great inputs! Keep it up guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The latest ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch by mid January, lol. It legit looks like a repeat of what we just experienced this month. Its hard to be decisive on the final outcome at this point in time, but i still got great hopes for January. For starters, the latest Ensembles show an amazing outlook for the sub-forum as seen below. You can see the massive Aleutian Ridge in the Pacific (-EPO) and the SE Ridge near Bermuda, and this in turn creates a perfect gradient pattern. Almost resembles last season and 07-08 to some degree. You can see the PV around Hudson Bay which funnels in cold air across the West and this will allow the storm track, coupled with the SE Ridge, to favour our sub-forum for the immediate future. However, without any sustained blocking i think most of the cold will be transient. The stratosphere outlook does look encouraging, so hopefully we can get the Vortex to split and get a SSW underway. OLR anomalies near the dateline look almost La nina like despite the El Nino. This may cause trade winds to increase for a while, but thats getting out of the picture. I wouldn't go out on a limb to say January will be brutally cold, but it does look better than what we experienced in December at this point in time. I think the mean storm track will be just south of the region with frequent cold shots and a warm-up mid month, before we see a pattern change towards a more colder second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The latest ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch by mid January, lol. It legit looks like a repeat of what we just experienced this month. Its hard to be decisive on the final outcome at this point in time, but i still got great hopes for January. For starters, the latest Ensembles show an amazing outlook for the sub-forum as seen below. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png You can see the massive Aleutian Ridge in the Pacific (-EPO) and the SE Ridge near Bermuda, and this in turn creates a perfect gradient pattern. Almost resembles last season and 07-08 to some degree. You can see the PV around Hudson Bay which funnels in cold air across the West and this will allow the storm track, coupled with the SE Ridge, to favour our sub-forum for the immediate future. However, without any sustained blocking i think most of the cold will be transient. The stratosphere outlook does look encouraging, so hopefully we can get the Vortex to split and get a SSW underway. OLR anomalies near the dateline look almost La nina like despite the El Nino. This may cause trade winds to increase for a while, but thats getting out of the picture. I wouldn't go out on a limb to say January will be brutally cold, but it does look better than what we experienced in December at this point in time. I think the mean storm track will be just south of the region with frequent cold shots and a warm-up mid month, before we see a pattern change towards a more colder second half. Could we ever see a weather pattern with a massive ridge in the east and trough in the west? Historically, a lot of the warmest Januaries (1890, 1932, and 1950) were bitterly cold out west. The recent warm Januaries (2006, 2012) have been coast-to-coast blow torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah I agree. At least STL-LAF-DTW-YYZ roughly fall on the same line. Besides the storm in early January 2014, the blizz of 99 is probably one of the better examples of all 3 places cashing in, at least in relatively recent times. Totals from Jan 1-3, 1999: STL: 8.0" IND: 10.9" DTW: 11.3" well why stop there? That was also a storm for CMH....you want rare, how about a storm that dumps on STL, IND, DTW, ORD, and CMH. That would have been a massive party for almost the whole subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 euro is snooze central and then gets ready to unleash an epic torch cold winter calls dropping left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 euro is snooze central and then gets ready to unleash an epic torch cold winter calls dropping left and right Torch potential on the euro should effectively put the entire sub-forum on suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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