Harry Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Rainman bringing some meat and potatoes to the metrological thinking table... Loving all of the red inputs as of late. It is very nice to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 It is very nice to have. Agreed. He also is not arrogant about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Do you think we'll manage a stratosphere wave 2 via upwelling by early Jan, and wouldn't that reduce dependence on an SSW episode? I also noticed the GWO beginning to oscillate in negative territory. Do you think that will contribute to the persistence of the SE ridge? Very non-Nino like for sure. gfsgwo_1.png B/C the LR modelling has been doing so bad lately I am reluctant to commit to any particular solution. What we have a good handle on is the strong downwelling wave 1 that should peak by ~D5, soon to be followed by a wave 2 spike whether that is upwelling/downwelling or both. In order for the 60N/10mb U wind to go negative we will need some downwelling wave 2 help. By D10, most of the vortex is in bad condition especially the mid strat. Also important to note that the main area of PV is on our side of the pole which always helps. Beyond D10 is where the forecast gets tricky. What once was a really good look for w2 on the ec eps/GEFS via Siberian RWB has since transformed into a weaker wave 1 pattern. To finish off a very weak vortex we need E european heights to rise just one more time beyond D10 in order to attain true SSWE status. D12 on the EC EPS Re the GWO talk, I think the state of the ossc is probably reflecting the enhanced IO forcing. The main MJO wave is expected to return to the IO yet again as soon as 1/10-15. This has been an unexpected development this winter with a real lack of traditional equator forcing east of the dateline. This is one of the reasons why the pattern should have some nina component for much of Jan IMO. Note the convergence zone ~180W which is helping kill any low freq CHI moving in that direction. Roundy plots kill most of the eastern wave by ~1/15, with the main forcing over the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I feel like we need to renew our optimism. So here's a hot link to today's 12z P-GFS. T-minus 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Weather is weird and can change on a dime but it's looking more and more like a safe call that December will end on a quiet note. Looks like the next "threat" will be when that retrograding SW low finally ejects around the 2nd or 3rd. It's going to depend on the position of the PV and when the shortwave comes out (if at all without tearing to shreds), bu if it's a threat for any location, it's more than likely from the Ohio Valley and southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I feel like we need to renew our optimism. So here's a hot link to today's 12z P-GFS. T-minus 240 hours. How likely is it for that type of solution to even happen? I'm not saying that can't happen and I understand it's 240hrs out, but that would be unusual... What I will say is it would certanly be a shame if the pGFS is just as bad as the OP GFS it's replacing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Hopefully we more than double our December snowfall! lol It's going to depend on the position of the PV and when the shortwave comes out (if at all without tearing to shreds), bu if it's a threat for any location, it's more than likely from the Ohio Valley and southward... Looks like that is what the current GFS run is showing... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014122512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 lol Looks like that is what the current GFS run is showing... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014122512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384 Why are you trying to ruin Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I feel like we need to renew our optimism. So here's a hot link to today's 12z P-GFS. T-minus 240 hours. The PGFS is still showing that? When I checked the other day, it was the only model showing anything close to that in that timeframe. It was taking it right up the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Both the 00z and 12z ECMWF runs for today would be a snowstorm for most or all of lower Michigan as that closed low ejects into the Ohio Valley and lifts toward the eastern Great Lakes between 200-240 hours. Models aren't the greatest at handling closed lows like that, but I do like how the overall evolution is strongly dependent on the deepening longwave trough upstream and a closed low whose development is (relatively) high confidence. If you're going to wishcast a snowstorm 220 hours away, don't do it for a storm that depends on phasing shortwaves. Do it when all that is needed is for snow in your back yard is a large wave to get swept up within a longwave trough. Technically the 12z would involve a period of rain in the middle of the event for much of SEMI, but we can revisit that in 200 hours. I do like the overall potential....as long as the closed low doesn't do anything too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Both the 00z and 12z ECMWF runs for today would be a snowstorm for most or all of lower Michigan as that closed low ejects into the Ohio Valley and lifts toward the eastern Great Lakes between 200-240 hours. Models aren't the greatest at handling closed lows like that, but I do like how the overall evolution is strongly dependent on the deepening longwave trough upstream and a closed low whose development is high confidence. If you're going to wishcast a snowstorm 220 hours away, don't do it for a storm that depends on phasing shortwaves. Do it when all that is needed is for snow in your back yard is a large wave to get swept up within a longwave trough. Technically the 12z would involve a period of rain in the middle of the event for much of SEMI, but we can revisit that in 200 hours. I do like the overall potential....as long as the closed low doesn't do anything too funny. Like bury itself in Mexico? I'm watching this period with some interest as it appears to be the next real chance at something decent (keeping an eye on the 28th-29th but don't have much hope there). Hopefully it works out for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Yeah, the EC and GEM ensembles seem to hint at a higher latitude cutoff, which is good. Heck, you can even infer a hit for the subforum from the extended GFS. The evolution is basically the same, until it takes the low right over the Appalachians. But if the post 192-hour didn't truncate shortwave dynamics and rob the whole system of its deepening cycle, that wouldn't happen. This isn't worth talking about again until we are at least inside 168 hours, but like I said, the unusually low dependence on small scale features and model agreement on the large scale is a good thing. I'll admit I am jonesing for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Yeah, the EC and GEM ensembles seem to hint at a higher latitude cutoff, which is good. Heck, you can even infer a hit for the subforum from the extended GFS. The evolution is basically the same, until it takes the low right over the Appalachians. But if the post 192-hour didn't truncate shortwave dynamics and rob the whole system of its deepening cycle, that wouldn't happen. This isn't worth talking about again until we are at least inside 168 hours, but like I said, the unusually low dependence on small scale features and model agreement on the large scale is a good thing. I'll admit I am jonesing for snow. Whenever all of the OP models and many of their ensembles are in agreement on a decent storm in the same timeframe, its always a good sign that SOMETHING will occur SOMEWHERE in the east half of the country. Beyond that....especially with the atrocious model performance lately...its all a crap shoot. Day by Day - thats the motto for 2014-15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Early call for the 3-4th storm is rain IMBY. Hopefully I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 All of the 18z members are warm rainy smelly cutters. Then back to cold and dry. Nice pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Early call for the 3-4th storm is rain IMBY. Hopefully I'm wrong Now you're a pessimist? And we haven't even had it that bad comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No you're a pessimist? And we haven't even had it that bad comparatively.I just don't want cold and dry with no snow in the ground. It may as well be warm if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Everything I'm looking at looks pretty good for much of us, plus, we wouldn't be relying on phasing or cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Early call for the 3-4th storm is rain IMBY. Hopefully I'm wrong All of the 18z members are warm rainy smelly cutters. Then back to cold and dry. Nice pattern. The potential system is 10 days out... Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Early call for the 3-4th storm is rain IMBY. Hopefully I'm wrong All of the 18z members are warm rainy smelly cutters. Then back to cold and dry. Nice pattern.Irony... 12z euro is bah humbug. moderate system thru OV day 8 then by day 10 most of the country is above normal with the cold pool in Canada retreating. Patience is the best xmas present this year for snow lovers....we are going to need a LOT of it. I wouldn't worry about the cold air retreating. Why you study a day 10 euro op run is beyond me. Study? I was just mentioning what it showed. It's relevant in the face of all the pattern change and cold forecast calls. Just another piece of the puzzle...right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Congrats cyclone on the 0z Euro. Only 8 or so days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Congrats cyclone on the 0z Euro. Only 8 or so days away. long overdue.png Haha looks kind of like the 4km from the other day, but at a different angle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z GFS still showing a nice storm for Jan 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Details in the garbage....but the set-up is intriguing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Details in the garbage....but the set-up is intriguing.... definitely a good setup for somebody in the ov / lakes region, nice ridge around florida to keep any storms going in a more NE direction instead of being suppressed, and decent trough in the sw and sc states got my eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 definitely a good setup for somebody in the ov / lakes region, nice ridge around florida to keep any storms going in a more NE direction instead of being suppressed, and decent trough in the sw and sc states got my eye on this one. It depends on how you define a "good setup" It's a classic "thread the needle" storm from what I can see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It depends on how you define a "good setup" It's a classic "thread the needle" storm from what I can see... Cold air is in place this time though....if it cuts west I would think it would be snow to rain to snow. At this long range juncture we have seen models play the snow swath well to our south, to our northwest, and right over us. At this far range and with terrible modeling lately, cant really ask for much more at THIS point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It depends on how you define a "good setup" It's a classic "thread the needle" storm from what I can see... looks like this storm if it happens will have a decent high pressure behind it giving it a nice cold air pool vs the november and xmas eve bomb storms that had no high pressure system to provide good cold air somebody will win pretty good with this but as usual its almost 8 days out so things will change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z Euro would probably be good for some people on the 3rd-4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z Euro would probably be good for some people on the 3rd-4th. STL to LAF to DTW to YYZ. Models and their ensembles have been locking in on that period for a storm for a few days now as the low in the SW ejects northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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