michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The NAEFS is thru Jan 6...the CFS is the entire month of January...and it changes on a daily basis. It had a cold look the last several days. Its utter garbage. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just was looking at the numbers NAO, AO, MJO graphs from the climate prediction centre. I'm even less confident in the weather taking a turn to more winter like scenario. I'm fearing the repeat of December ... Who knows with the wonkiness of the models things can change in a few runs, see above. Am I missing something in the big picture ?? I'm not plowing much these days so I figured no better time to learn more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 OHweather, great writeups as always. Reading the great LR forecasters on the New England thread, they sounded optimistic for continued ridging in the EPO region even that could keep the cold air discharge going into Canada despite other indices being unfavorable. Haven't looked at the ens runs, but it sounded like the 12z GEFS was much better today and also mention was made of a Niña like gradient type pattern with southeast ridging. Despite it being a weak Niño, wondering if we might see a 07-08 like setup for at least a time in January. Any additional thoughts on this? Thanks! The ensembles last night all appeared to keep some ridging into Alaska last night, and if we can keep that nice negative anomaly over the NW Pac that might overwhelm the MJO and allow us to keep ridging there. Based on the temperature anomaly maps for each MJO phase I'd expect the ridging over the Pac to be west of Alaska in phases 3-6, especially 4-6, but that might not occur here. It's almost more of a La Nina look, I agree, although with a more active STJ. I still think the cold relaxes some for the first week or so of January, but the pattern shown in that timeframe still isn't warm and may be decent north of I-80 or so. Also, after showing a neutral to + EPO in the extended range yesterday, this plot which is I believe based off of the 0z GEFS now shows a -EPO in the extended today. The WPO is also more neutral which likely is because the models now appear to be a little farther west with the aforementioned NW Pac feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks much cooler than I thought using this as a reference with 00 UTC DEC 23. http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/ Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Geesh, quite the arctic shot coming down on the 12z op GFS early-middle next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS looks to progressive and suppressive while the ECMWF looks "interesting" by even 144hrs ........ what's with the anemic snow on these storms? Euro takes a low from Central KY to Pittsburgh, good track for the nw half of OH and the best we got is a finger nail wide sliver of 6" snow max thru north central OH. Putting on my glass half full goggles, that 144 hr timeframe is our next point of interest. But I have no idea which way it could blow up in our faces. Equal chances of suppression vs. amped and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 A Christmas Gift. "Thank goodness EC HRES only runs thru 10-days. I don't want to see anymore. Would be one of wildest winter weather periods in memory."-Ryan Maue. Of course I'm not sure who this targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 A Christmas Gift. "Thank goodness EC HRES only runs thru 10-days. I don't want to see anymore. Would be one of wildest winter weather periods in memory."-Ryan Maue. Of course I'm not sure who this targets. East coast. Two potential storms on the Euro. One around 180hrs, and another a little after 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 East coast. Two potential storms on the Euro. One around 180hrs, and another a little after 240hrs. 240 hrs ago he might have said the same thing with the 960 bomb over the lower lakes. Some of these mets sound more weenie than weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I was scanning the models to try to find a ray of hope for next week. The only thing I could find is the PGFS, which closes off an ull over the four corners and spins up a cyclone as it ejects. The surface low rides the OV giving Southern IN, most of OH, and Southern ON a good hit on New Year's Eve/Day. However, it looks like the lone wolf. Grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I was scanning the models to try to find a ray of hope for next week. The only thing I could find is the PGFS, which closes off an ull over the four corners and spins up a cyclone as it ejects. The surface low rides the OV giving Southern IN, most of OH, and Southern ON a good hit on New Year's Eve/Day. However, it looks like the lone wolf. Grasping at straws. So much potential at 120 over the four corners on the 12z GFS. But it looks like it's going retrograde/orphan the southern stream component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 punt until 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 punt until 2016 Time to dust off those futility records and start tracking them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 December looks to likely end as a top 20, perhaps top 15, warmest on record here. And likely only the 3rd time in history with no measurable snowfall. Even if things miraculously recover from now on, it's a 100% guarantee to be a warmer than normal and be below normal, probably well below normal, in snowfall. No winter in history has recovered from this double-whammy, so I'm just about ready to call time of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Other than maybe a thin strip of light snow this sat the GFS op says nada till sometime in 2015. EDIT: PGFS agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So much potential at 120 over the four corners on the 12z GFS. But it looks like it's going retrograde/orphan the southern stream component. Wanders around for 5 days and ejects out as a decent storm at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I trust the models as far as I can throw them right now...but, the 0z Euro has a system for 12/29 and a follow up small event that does good for a decent chunk of OH (and some parts of IN). I'd hold off on the wrist-slitting for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I trust the models as far as I can throw them right now...but, the 0z Euro has a system for 12/29 and a follow up small event that does good for a decent chunk of OH (and some parts of IN). I'd hold off on the wrist-slitting for now. It looked like if the southern stream wave was a bit slower it could have phased earlier with the incoming northern stream vort. Could have spun up a decent system earlier on further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The problem is we need everything to SLOW DOWN. These very progressive "cold shots" and weak little lows are torture for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It looked like if the southern stream wave was a bit slower it could have phased earlier with the incoming northern stream vort. Could have spun up a decent system earlier on further west. Yeah. It's going to be tough to get anything big I think, with this progressive/fast flow. Of course last winter was the same kind of deal, but things found a way to work out most of the time. Regardless, there looks to be better cold air availability in the near future, and some SE ridging in the means. If we can get one timed perfectly, it could work out quite well...but I'd lean towards smaller events at the moment. Models will probably be useless on the details, especially in the medium range. I guess I'm a little more optimistic than most, but I think the pattern looks better for some wintry fun in the next week to two weeks. As usual, we will shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I hope To god that it isn't just bitter cold with no snow. It may as well just be warm if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Time to dust off those futility records and start tracking them.Wait for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah. It's going to be tough to get anything big I think, with this progressive/fast flow. Of course last winter was the same kind of deal, but things found a way to work out most of the time. Regardless, there looks to be better cold air availability in the near future, and some SE ridging in the means. If we can get one timed perfectly, it could work out quite well...but I'd lean towards smaller events at the moment. Models will probably be useless on the details, especially in the medium range. I guess I'm a little more optimistic than most, but I think the pattern looks better for some wintry fun in the next week to two weeks. As usual, we will shall see. I'm with you. I think there will be chances. Lots of the 0z Euro ensemble members had several systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wait for it... Don't even start that sh*t again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Don't even start that sh*t again lol It's coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The problem is we need everything to SLOW DOWN. These very progressive "cold shots" and weak little lows are torture for snow lovers. ^^^Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 A serious question, not a complaint...what has occurred with the pattern to throw off pretty much every long range forecast this season? Most if not all were calling for colder than normal (some significantly so) with normal to above normal snowfall in pretty much all of the lakes and Ohio valley. We can no longer say that "there's plenty of winter left", when it comes to the pattern. The most wintry 12-week period when it comes to snow cover and "look and feel" is the last week of nov thru the 3rd week of feb. Outside of that, we can definitely get snow storms...but it isn't guaranteed to stick around very long. So, we may end up going the entire 1st half of this 12 week period with zero 1"+ snow depth days at ORD. What did all of the long range forecasters miss? I guess you can chalk some of it up to chaos and the imperfection of the science...but not all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z euro is bah humbug. moderate system thru OV day 8 then by day 10 most of the country is above normal with the cold pool in Canada retreating. Patience is the best xmas present this year for snow lovers....we are going to need a LOT of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I would rather be in Bo's location. Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z euro is bah humbug. moderate system thru OV day 8 then by day 10 most of the country is above normal with the cold pool in Canada retreating. Edit: after looking at the 12z euro more in depth the cold air is nowhere near retreating. Looks like another big reload coming after that with the big -EPO. Patience is the best xmas present this year for snow lovers....we are going to need a LOT of it. I wouldn't worry about the cold air retreating. Why you study a day 10 euro op run is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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