Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[jbcmh81]

0z GFS really backed off the cold in the LR as compared to the 12z.

 

Neither the AO or NAO are shown going very negative before popping back positive, as well.  The 06z continued that trend.  No real cold through the first week of January.  Maybe a bit colder than we've been this month, but nothing to write home about. 

[michsnowfreak]

Neither the AO or NAO are shown going very negative before popping back positive, as well.  The 06z continued that trend.  No real cold through the first week of January.  Maybe a bit colder than we've been this month, but nothing to write home about. 

I noticed the lessening of the cold also (ensembles still show colder than normal, just not extremely so). But we are at the time of year when seasonal temps are just fine. Its all going to be about getting snow/storms.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I noticed the lessening of the cold also (ensembles still show colder than normal, just not extremely so). But we are at the time of year when seasonal temps are just fine. Its all going to be about getting snow/storms.

To be honest, I'm starting to get the sense that this winter is going to be largely a dud. This will be the third time I can remember a cold winter being hyped up by most major weather agencies, only for it to fall flat. 2001-2002, 2011-2012 and now perhaps this one. I remember Christmas 2001 and how, for a few days, a severely cold outbreak was predicted for just past New Years, only for it to evaporate and for us to instead get temperatures in the 30s and 40s through much of January. The European model is already starting to back off from the cold prediction.

 

 Historically, it would fit the pattern to get a warm winter this year as it is exceptionally rare to get back-to-back severely cold winters. The only time it seems to have happened was in the late 70s and early 80s. For example, the severely cold winter of 1917-1918 was followed by the dud of 1918-1919. The cold winter of 1978-1979 was followed by the dud of 1979-1980 which, interestingly, saw flooding rains on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Toronto and Ottawa.  These are to name but a few.

 

My (admittedly un-scientific) prediction is that this winter won't be a torch, but will also not see many nights with temperatures below 0F in Toronto, Detroit, Ottawa and Chicago. I also don't think these cities will see a zero day.

[DAFF]

Why it helps to occasionally view the Aussies version..

Yes the red verifies... Octobers weather.

[dan123]

To be honest, I'm starting to get the sense that this winter is going to be largely a dud. This will be the third time I can remember a cold winter being hyped up by most major weather agencies, only for it to fall flat. 2001-2002, 2011-2012 and now perhaps this one. I remember Christmas 2001 and how, for a few days, a severely cold outbreak was predicted for just past New Years, only for it to evaporate and for us to instead get temperatures in the 30s and 40s through much of January. The European model is already starting to back off from the cold prediction.

 

 Historically, it would fit the pattern to get a warm winter this year as it is exceptionally rare to get back-to-back severely cold winters. The only time it seems to have happened was in the late 70s and early 80s. For example, the severely cold winter of 1917-1918 was followed by the dud of 1918-1919. The cold winter of 1978-1979 was followed by the dud of 1979-1980 which, interestingly, saw flooding rains on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Toronto and Ottawa.  These are to name but a few.

 

My (admittedly un-scientific) prediction is that this winter won't be a torch, but will also not see many nights with temperatures below 0F in Toronto, Detroit, Ottawa and Chicago. I also don't think these cities will see a zero day.

Dave Philips will approve of this

[harrisale]

NAEFS continues to advertise a cold look for the beginning of January.

CFS on the other hand says get out the blowtorch.

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

The Canadian product involves a human hand of some sort, I think the CFS is just a long range inaccurate model output.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Dave Philips will approve of this

I'm guessing you're really not a fan of his?

 

I admit that I'm just annoyed at myself for falling for the hype, when I should have known better.

[dan123]

I'm guessing you're really not a fan of his?

 

I admit that I'm just annoyed at myself for falling for the hype, when I should have known better.

Ya I really don't like him mainly because of all his global warming garbage. He is knowledgable don't get me wrong on that but sometimes he's over the top

[buckeye]

Neither the AO or NAO are shown going very negative before popping back positive, as well.  The 06z continued that trend.  No real cold through the first week of January.  Maybe a bit colder than we've been this month, but nothing to write home about. 

 

on the bright side there is agreement between the ggem and euro of a couple of moderate storms moving sw to ne thru the lower OV in the 7-10 day period bringing a swath of snow thru Ohio.

 

on the dark side....as you mentioned...indices are looking awful beyond Jan 1.  AO heading positive,  NAO heading positive, and PNA heading negative.    January is not looking to go as many forecasters planned....at least as of right now.

[A-L-E-K]

on the bright side there is agreement between the ggem and euro of a couple of moderate storms moving sw to ne thru the lower OV in the 7-10 day period bringing a swath of snow thru Ohio.

 

on the dark side....as you mentioned...indices are looking awful beyond Jan 1.  AO heading positive,  NAO heading positive, and PNA heading negative.    January is not looking to go as many forecasters planned....at least as of right now.

 

lol @ JB

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ya I really don't like him mainly because of all his global warming garbage. He is knowledgable don't get me wrong on that but sometimes he's over the top

I agree the global warming stuff is over-the-top. I like his annual weather trivia calendar though. Very well thought out and researched, in my opinion.

[michsnowfreak]

To be honest, I'm starting to get the sense that this winter is going to be largely a dud. This will be the third time I can remember a cold winter being hyped up by most major weather agencies, only for it to fall flat. 2001-2002, 2011-2012 and now perhaps this one. I remember Christmas 2001 and how, for a few days, a severely cold outbreak was predicted for just past New Years, only for it to evaporate and for us to instead get temperatures in the 30s and 40s through much of January. The European model is already starting to back off from the cold prediction.

 

 Historically, it would fit the pattern to get a warm winter this year as it is exceptionally rare to get back-to-back severely cold winters. The only time it seems to have happened was in the late 70s and early 80s. For example, the severely cold winter of 1917-1918 was followed by the dud of 1918-1919. The cold winter of 1978-1979 was followed by the dud of 1979-1980 which, interestingly, saw flooding rains on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Toronto and Ottawa.  These are to name but a few.

 

My (admittedly un-scientific) prediction is that this winter won't be a torch, but will also not see many nights with temperatures below 0F in Toronto, Detroit, Ottawa and Chicago. I also don't think these cities will see a zero day.

I get what your saying...and I was very NOT feeling this winter until EVERYONE went cold (even then I warned it would be NOWHERE NEAR as severe as last year, despite some of the idiotic statements that were said)....but the thing is....those winters you mentioned (1918-19, 2001-02, 2011-12) were torch winters, and clearly this winter is not in that camp (at least yet). Its just been an odd, odd winter.

 

Winter weenies are mostly about snow. Give us good snow, and they would not care how much cold there was.

[michsnowfreak]

NAEFS continues to advertise a cold look for the beginning of January.

CFS on the other hand says get out the blowtorch.

 

 

 

 

The NAEFS is thru Jan 6...the CFS is the entire month of January...and it changes on a daily basis. It had a cold look the last several days. Its utter garbage.

[harrisale]

The NAEFS is thru Jan 6...the CFS is the entire month of January...and it changes on a daily basis. It had a cold look the last several days. Its utter garbage.

I know, that's why I said it looks cold for the start of January.

CFS hasn't been great lately (ex. November) but with the teleconnections beginning to look unfavourable for cold, maybe it's actually on to something for the next month. Not an all out torch as depicted but just another sign that many a frigid January forecast may bust.

[OHweather]

Big differences are evident in the pattern between the one leading into the Christmas Eve "storm" and the possible storm threats later this weekend into early next week:

 

0z Euro ensemble mean valid Tuesday evening:

 

 

0z Euro ensemble mean valid Saturday evening:

 

 

There is a nice PV anomaly just north of the Great Lakes for this weekend, with nothing along those lines shown for the first half of this week. In addition, instead of a ridge centered off of the California coast with a strong jet and shortwaves still crashing into the NW US from the west, a better blocking type ridge is progged into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska, with the Pacific jet forced to ride over the top of that ridge. We haven't had that kind of ridging progged ahead of any of our recent storm threats, so hopefully that holds.

 

This would all suggest better cold air coming in behind any storms late this weekend into early next week and possibly some more favorable northern stream involvement. In addition, significant positive height anomalies aren't currently modeled ahead of any weekend or early next week storm over the NE US and SE Canada, which suggests possibly a more traditional SW to NE storm track.

 

The models have been pretty bad with the non-event around the 20th and the upcoming Christmas Eve storm, and have in general been way too amped up in the mid-range, so we'll see if that trend continues. However, I like that the look to the west is completely different ahead of this storm. Just looking at the 144 hour plot, a low track through the Ohio Valley and into Ohio is what I'd expect if a storm actually happened next Sunday, so perhaps a tad north of the recent Euro and Canadian runs, but let's see if the storm stays on the models for another couple of runs.

 

I've been concerned about an early January pull-back of the cold for several days now, although I think I only mentioned it on my blog and not here so maybe that doesn't count. The Indian Ocean looks pretty active right now which typically doesn't bode well for us, although the 12z GFS run doesn't show the N. Pac pattern responding through 180 hours. The model shows the jet remaining fairly strong to east of the Dateline before breaking, which suggests continued west-coast ridging after 180 hours. Typically, if convection was active so far west and quiet in the Pacific, you'd expect the ridging to be farther west with troughing on the west coast, which would likely spell warmth for most of us. We'll have to see if the N. Pac and MJO continue to be at odds. The Euro shows the MJO becoming more favorable by the time we hit the second week of January, and the Euro also shows pretty good warming in the stratosphere starting in the next few days and increasing through day 10. If we can get through early January, a return to a more favorable MJO and possible -AO if we do in fact get a SSW event may actually bring the pain. SSW events aren't well predictable so that's still an iffy proposition, although recent model runs are encouraging.

 

I get the frustration that's been mounting...we had an incredibly boring December with two snow potentials on the mid-range models recently turning into essentially nothing for most of us (except for a narrow corridor this Wednesday into Thursday)...however, December's often aren't a good month in El Nino's, and in most high snow-cover winters, good blocking didn't develop until late December or January based on an animation from the AER blog that was floating around a couple of weeks back. Yes, negative snow departures are going to begin to grow, which will make it nearly impossible to see another historic snow winter. However, having an overall colder than normal winter with near normal precip doesn't always guarantee a well above normal snow winter, and that anomaly combination is still extremely possible if most of January and February are colder than normal.

 

I'm still concerned that if the "hammer" drops in the second week of January that we see a more suppressed storm track, which is something I was concerned about from the get-go heading into this winter, although let's see how the upcoming storm "threats" play out and how the pattern looks to evolve as we get into January before going on suicide watch. It's possible the hammer doesn't ever drop and we stay in a more variable pattern which would help storm prospects farther NW, although at this point I'm still inclined to lean towards better cold moving in...eventually.

 

Euro 10mb plots:

 

48 hours:

 

 

144 hours:

 

 

240 hours:

 

 

Active thunderstorms in the Indian Ocean:

 

 

Euro ensemble MJO forecast:

 

 

12z GFS Pacific jet at 180 hours:

 

[Stebo]

Excellant write up OHweather. I do really hope we don't end up with too suppressed of storm track later on in January, though knowing how Ninos work, I know it is always in the cards.

[OHweather]

Excellant write up OHweather. I do really hope we don't end up with too suppressed of storm track later on in January, though knowing how Ninos work, I know it is always in the cards.

Thanks. The one silver lining is this is a weak Nino and the MJO continuing to try to move back into the Indian Ocean isn't exactly typical of Ninos either, so we'll see. My call of a "milder" (normal-ish or perhaps a bit above) start to January and then much colder thereafter isn't high confidence but I think there's some support for it.

[Stebo]

Thanks. The one silver lining is this is a weak Nino and the MJO continuing to try to move back into the Indian Ocean isn't exactly typical of Ninos either, so we'll see. My call of a "milder" (normal-ish or perhaps a bit above) start to January and then much colder thereafter isn't high confidence but I think there's some support for it.

As long as the MJO keeps moving along and doesn't stall out in the Indian Ocean we should be in good shape.

[OHweather]

As long as the MJO keeps moving along and doesn't stall out in the Indian Ocean we should be in good shape.

Most of the models keep it moving so we'll see. It didn't stall in the bad octants this month, so hopefully it doesn't over the next two weeks. This isn't to overlook the next 10 days or so, the models do show a decent gradient pattern setting up with some disturbances to try to take advantage of that. Whether or not all of the potential will be wasted or not is TBD though.

[snowlover2]

18z PGFS now getting in the game for the possible weekend threat.

[Thundersnow12]

Most of the models keep it moving so we'll see. It didn't stall in the bad octants this month, so hopefully it doesn't over the next two weeks. This isn't to overlook the next 10 days or so, the models do show a decent gradient pattern setting up with some disturbances to try to take advantage of that. Whether or not all of the potential will be wasted or not is TBD though.

 

Link to your blog? 

[michsnowfreak]

great writeup OHweather. Its funny, I like a backloaded winter way better than a frontloaded one, but the wait of a snowless December (after a Nov winter blast no less) is just terrible lol

[OHweather]

Link to your blog? 

ohwxramblings.wordpress.com

 

I haven't posted in 6 days

 

Also, I usually don't mind backloaded winters, although I'd like something by the 10th of January before I go back to SE Ohio, where snowfall climo isn't nearly as good as Cleveland. The weather has just sucked this month. Not warm, not exciting, just dull and chilly.

[DaveNay]

ohwxramblings.wordpress.com

 

I haven't posted in 6 days

 

Also, I usually don't mind backloaded winters, although I'd like something by the 10th of January before I go back to SE Ohio, where snowfall climo isn't nearly as good as Cleveland. The weather has just sucked this month. Not warm, not exciting, just dull and chilly.

 

Whereabouts in SE OH? My dad is in Racine and except for the derecho a couple years ago it seems like his weather is pretty boring.

[OHweather]

Whereabouts in SE OH? My dad is in Racine and except for the derecho a couple years ago it seems like his weather is pretty boring.

Athens (Ohio University). Not to get too off topic in this thread, but it can be pretty mundane. I was not there for the derecho.

[buckeye]

euro weeklies....blech

 

after day 10, 850 ens anom means are predominantly above average til the end of the run.  Not a torch but still above average.   Looks like a signal for a -pna locking in for a time with a trough in the west and ridging east.

[buckeye]

 

Whereabouts in SE OH? My dad is in Racine and except for the derecho a couple years ago it seems like his weather is pretty boring.

Athens (Ohio University). Not to get too off topic in this thread, but it can be pretty mundane. I was not there for the derecho.

 

Southeast Ohio does well with  true app runners, not ones that ride the western side, but ride up the spine or a bit east.  There hasn't been one of those in a very long time.  Most of the recent strong app runners were a bit west of the spine opening southeast Ohio to the WTOD.   When southeast Ohio hits a jackpot they usually win the powerball, and if you look at some of the record snows in the Ohio river valley on the WV/OH border there are some impressive hits....like to the tune of 30+ inches....just have to wait about every 25 yrs or so lol.

[RCNYILWX]

OHweather, great writeups as always. Reading the great LR forecasters on the New England thread, they sounded optimistic for continued ridging in the EPO region even that could keep the cold air discharge going into Canada despite other indices being unfavorable. Haven't looked at the ens runs, but it sounded like the 12z GEFS was much better today and also mention was made of a Niña like gradient type pattern with southeast ridging. Despite it being a weak Niño, wondering if we might see a 07-08 like setup for at least a time in January. Any additional thoughts on this?

[andyhb]

OHweather, great writeups as always. Reading the great LR forecasters on the New England thread, they sounded optimistic for continued ridging in the EPO region even that could keep the cold air discharge going into Canada despite other indices being unfavorable. Haven't looked at the ens runs, but it sounded like the 12z GEFS was much better today and also mention was made of a Niña like gradient type pattern with southeast ridging. Despite it being a weak Niño, wondering if we might see a 07-08 like setup for at least a time in January. Any additional thoughts on this?

 

My thought is that I'd love that...    

 

More seriously, I've had that thought as well from time to time. Interesting to note that the QBO is currently strongly negative, the most negative it has been at this point in the year since 07-08.

 

Recent guidance, as schizophrenic as it has been, has been fairly consistent in depicting a stout ST ridge over the Caribbean that should help to induce such a pattern, it's whether everything else cooperates.