Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Completely useless op run at 10 days, but that's a big dog high pressure coming down from Canada on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Completely useless op run at 10 days, but that's a big dog high pressure coming down from Canada on the 12z GFS. gfs 240.gif Yeah the ceiling with this event seems pretty high with that more traditional arctic air mass advancing into the conus. If the 24th system ends up being as weak as some of the latest guidance would suggest then this next system could be a true big dog with widespread snows. EDIT: This was the system many of us were originally interested in several days ago before models started to advertise the 24th system. Euro showed a very impressive trough and associated impressive string of vorts moving into the western conus as early as 5-6 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Completely useless op run at 10 days, but that's a big dog high pressure coming down from Canada on the 12z GFS. gfs 240.gif With a nice snowstorm to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Nice PV interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You need to broaden the picture to see the differences. Here's the 0z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS 500h mean at 144 hours. Notice all have some form of pseudo/temporary -NAO, but the real difference is on the other side where the EPS has more ridging out west than the GEFS or GEPS. eps 500h 144.png gefs 500h 144.png geps 500h 144.png The look on the EPS is favorable for running a system up through our region. It's forcing the shortwave west and south and then ejects as the blocking to the northeast moves off. Also some SE ridging makes an appearance due to the western ridging and temp -NAO. Kinda makes sense in the grand scheme of things. I guess timing/evolution of the moving parts will be sort of critical. FWIW, pretty good agreement amongst the 0z EPS individual members of a storm in the general TX panhandle area at 144 hours. Where they go after that is a bit more spread out, but the mean takes it basically just north of STL and then ORD. We'll see how it all shakes out, but I'd rather be west of a STL-ORD-MKE line right now. Thanks for your thoughts, not that it matters, since the ensembles (sans the Euro) look different with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro and PGFS have been very consistent for days in showing the 27th system. All this while the same model was showing very powerful bomb scenarios with the 24th storm. This gives me some pretty decent confidence that the 27th system should be halfway decent. In fact, it must be a pretty potent system to be following such a strong storm that wants to flatten things out behind it. Jinx. Models have trended weaker with the 26/27th system today. Euro still shows a 1-3" type snow from IA to WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the next legit threat for the eastern Lakes is around the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the next legit threat for the eastern Lakes is around the 29th. Meh, we'll see one it's still around closer in than 8 days from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Meh, we'll see one it's still around closer in than 8 days from now... Its been on the GEM for a few runs but i couldnt agree more....the models have been atrocious. But with us getting into a cold pattern, you have to think the snow will come..at least for many if not most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the next legit threat for the eastern Lakes is around the 29th. Check out the 12z GGEM. Remember it's been pretty good so far this season sniffing out storms/non storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 attack PV.png There comes the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro appears to have a heavy snowstorm as well as the GEM Dec 29-30. Oh boy...well everyone wanted stuff to track after a boring first half of December...well you got your wish. i just want it to actually SNOW and snow a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Can someone tell me approximately when the cold air arrives across the great lakes? Looking at around the new year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Can someone tell me approximately when the cold air arrives across the great lakes? Looking at around the new year? See thundersnow's post above...although it's only one gfs op run. Hopefully we see the ensembles and/or the euro show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 See thundersnow's post above...although it's only one gfs op run. Hopefully we see the ensembles and/or the euro show something similar. Thanks, wasn't even paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro appears to have a heavy snowstorm as well as the GEM Dec 29-30. Oh boy...well everyone wanted stuff to track after a boring first half of December...well you got your wish. i just want it to actually SNOW and snow a lot! So I guess that's the one to watch now (and see it fall apart like the rest), right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 well this dec 24-25 storm never had snowstorm written all over it. It had wish casting and straw grasping. Thats what ive said since the beginning. If it ends up a snowstorm I will be shocked. This next storm is a whole different beast. The cold, and I mean unseasonable cold, IS coming. Thats all but a lock. How storms behave....that is the unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 well this dec 24-25 storm never had snowstorm written all over it. It had wish casting and straw grasping. Thats what ive said since the beginning. If it ends up a snowstorm I will be shocked. This next storm is a whole different beast. The cold, and I mean unseasonable cold, IS coming. Thats all but a lock. How storms behave....that is the unknown Well my tongue-in-cheek point wasn't really about the temp profiles, but rather how the trend has been for these potential med-range threats to completely unravel as we get closer into their time frame... Don't be surprised if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 well this dec 24-25 storm never had snowstorm written all over it. It had wish casting and straw grasping. Thats what ive said since the beginning. If it ends up a snowstorm I will be shocked. This next storm is a whole different beast. The cold, and I mean unseasonable cold, IS coming. Thats all but a lock. How storms behave....that is the unknown I agree. The disappointing aspect is that the models were depicting a bombing low in our area, which is what excited me, since I knew the setup wasn't conducive to producing a major snowstorm. Well my tongue-in-cheek point wasn't really about the temp profiles, but rather how the trend has been for these potential med-range threats to completely unravel as we get closer into their time frame... Don't be surprised if that continues. I agree. My fear is that we flip to cold without a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I agree. The disappointing aspect is that the models were depicting a bombing low in our area, which is what excited me, since I knew the setup wasn't conducive to producing a major snowstorm. I agree. My fear is that we flip to cold without a decent storm. I never fear a cold pattern, we generally have clipper trains setup with a NW flow pattern. If we get the cold, we will get the snow... never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well my tongue-in-cheek point wasn't really about the temp profiles, but rather how the trend has been for these potential med-range threats to completely unravel as we get closer into their time frame... Don't be surprised if that continues. I wont be surprised....im the FIRST to say that living and dying by a model run is foolish. Im just saying that with the cold coming, precip type shouldn't be as much an issue. Even if it is indeed a blah winter, theres no way this region-wide snowless spell will go on unabated. Snow systems are coming, but of course someone is bound to get screwed. Lets just hope its not us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I never fear a cold pattern, we generally have clipper trains setup with a NW flow pattern. If we get the cold, we will get the snow... never fails. There are those rare times when it doesnt work out though. I would say worst case scenario for a cold NW flow pattern is for us to just be dusted in snow. There have been some severe cold outbreaks in years past where we absolutely shiver with just a T of snow on the ground. Of course that is the exception, not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This give me no positive vibe on cold entering the picture.... More like hit the repeat button of the past 20 days of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This give me no positive vibe on cold entering the picture.... More like hit the repeat button of the past 20 days of weather. All the ensemble means and op models show below normal temps for the period starting Dec 27 or so onward to early January. Im not sure what that MJO chart means (I always suck at decoding the mjo lol) but with the signal for cold, I will be SHOCKED if the Dec 27-Jan 7 period ends up warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z Canadian and Euro are both interesting solutions for next weekend. Of course, we need to figure out what the Christmas Eve storm and next Friday's little "wave" will do first as that will likely determine how suppressed any storm next Sunday is or isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z Canadian and Euro are both interesting solutions for next weekend. Of course, we need to figure out what the Christmas Eve storm and next Friday's little "wave" will do first as that will likely determine how suppressed any storm next Sunday is or isn't. After looking at the snowfall loop on Weatherunderground, all i can say is wow. It was showing easily a foot for basically north/west of I-71 in Ohio. Interesting is putting it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This give me no positive vibe on cold entering the picture.... More like hit the repeat button of the past 20 days of weather. Why it helps to occasionally view the Aussies version.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z GFS really backed off the cold in the LR as compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ggem and euro are amazingly similar where they depict snowfall in the 7-10 day range. Verbatim CMH would be riding the southern fringe of the snow. 7-10 days out means it will be a dramatically different solution, as we all are well aware...but at least we have our usual 7-10 day 'something' to watch. After looking at the snowfall loop on Weatherunderground, all i can say is wow. It was showing easily a foot for basically north/west of I-71 in Ohio. Interesting is putting it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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