Powerball Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 hopefully it finds it's way out for xmas Well, so much for the folks who were hoping for the MJO to pull through if that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hopefully the punt calls bust. Hard to give up faith that things will change on the models come mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro ensembles still show a favorable MJO propagation. In addition, the GFS, Canadian and Euro ensembles for the past several runs show the GOA low that will blast warmth into a good portion of the US and Canada over the next 10 days retrograding and allowing a +PNA and -EPO to develop in the long range, with hints of an active subtropical jet. I'm actually quite optimistic about a pattern change around the holidays. If the change is more gradual like the current ensembles are suggesting, then the lower lakes and Ohio Valley could be in a good spot for the last week of the month. This is a long ways out, but the MJO appears to be chugging along with active convection moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPac over the last week, and the ensembles continue to look better with each run in the long range. Get these changes inside of 10 days and I think we'll definitely have something. It's a bit far out to jump up and down, but I definitely still see enough signs to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro ensembles still show a favorable MJO propagation. In addition, the GFS, Canadian and Euro ensembles for the past several runs show the GOA low that will blast warmth into a good portion of the US and Canada over the next 10 days retrograding and allowing a +PNA and -EPO to develop in the long range, with hints of an active subtropical jet. I'm actually quite optimistic about a pattern change around the holidays. If the change is more gradual like the current ensembles are suggesting, then the lower lakes and Ohio Valley could be in a good spot for the last week of the month. This is a long ways out, but the MJO appears to be chugging along with active convection moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPac over the last week, and the ensembles continue to look better with each run in the long range. Get these changes inside of 10 days and I think we'll definitely have something. It's a bit far out to jump up and down, but I definitely still see enough signs to be optimistic. ECM MJO.gif global IR.gif I never understand the MJO diagrams people are always posting, but youve always had decent analysis so this is good news. Its looking more and more likely that this much hyped torch that once looked to easily last 1+ week is never going to happen in our neck of the woods (in the form a true torch), HOWEVER we certainly need to shake up the stale pattern. Its in that not cold/not warm and a whole lotta boring phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I never understand the MJO diagrams people are always posting, but youve always had decent analysis so this is good news. Its looking more and more likely that this much hyped torch that once looked to easily last 1+ week is never going to happen in our neck of the woods (in the form a true torch), HOWEVER we certainly need to shake up the stale pattern. Its in that not cold/not warm and a whole lotta boring phase. I agree that the current pattern is a whole lot of boring for sure. As for the MJO diagrams, the best way to simplify it is that the MJO being in certain octants correlates with certain ridge/trough positions, which correlate pretty well to temperature departures. Although not a perfect match, the recent jaunt through phases 3-5 and into phase 6 this upcoming week matches the warmer pattern those phases typically produce (it hasn't been that warm due to persistent cold from Canada still bleeding into the northern CONUS, but the pattern has turned crappy)...and the trek into phase 7/possibly 8 by mid-month, which has been modeled for a while, suggests a similar cool down to what the ensembles are showing in the 10-14 day time-frame. I think the fact that the MJO is in fact moving through the unfavorable octants and towards the better ones as previously modeled, and the models are now showing a better pattern as the MJO becomes more favorable, is a good sign. But, as I said it's still pretty far out and I'd like to see the cooler pattern make it inside 10 days on the models before really expecting it. I think the pattern as modeled now in all three of the ensembles would be a fruitful one for some of us around the holidays, but I may be getting ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Keep the JB stuff out of here...there's a thread for it now. Can't find it. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Can't find it. Link? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45072-vendortv-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Dedicated jb thread could be huge, hope it takes. Med range still blows. Long slightly more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like the ECMWF was right all along, taking the MJO in phase 6 and then the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think the GFS had it going through phases 8 and 1 at one point. A reminder about the composites. Big difference between phase 6 and 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think the GFS had it going through phases 8 and 1 at one point. A reminder about the composites. Big difference between phase 6 and 7. what does it do in the COD? Or does it depend what phase its in before the cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not saying it's the case currently or for this winter, but the MJO was kinda boot leg last winter when looking at the Oct 24-Jan 21 diagram...and comparing it to the composites. I guess maybe just a little caution at riding one variable to come to one conclusion. That being said, I don't see much hope for those us in the southern Midwest for a wintry pattern anytime soon. But, flukes happen in bad patterns sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 what does it do in the COD? Or does it depend what phase its in before the cod? Could definitely be wrong but COD IIRC is always bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 what does it do in the COD? Or does it depend what phase its in before the cod? When its in the COD it means amplitude is weak. This occurs not b/c there is no MJO wave present but b/c it is no longer superimposed with other tropical waves(i.e CCKW,ERW etc). Although the MJO on the RMM plots is expected to lose considerable amplitude, forcing will still remain over the E Pac favouring a progression to a cold pattern over the east past ~12/20 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not saying it's the case currently or for this winter, but the MJO was kinda boot leg last winter when looking at the Oct 24-Jan 21 diagram...and comparing it to the composites. I guess maybe just a little caution at riding one variable to come to one conclusion. phase.1yearago.gif That being said, I don't see much hope for those us in the southern Midwest for a wintry pattern anytime soon. But, flukes happen in bad patterns sometimes... That's a lot of time in or near the COD. Wonder if that played a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There are a lot of similarities to last years MJO to this seasons. Look at the location of Dec and compare it to now.... And projections of where its going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not saying it's the case currently or for this winter, but the MJO was kinda boot leg last winter when looking at the Oct 24-Jan 21 diagram...and comparing it to the composites. I guess maybe just a little caution at riding one variable to come to one conclusion. phase.1yearago.gif That being said, I don't see much hope for those us in the southern Midwest for a wintry pattern anytime soon. But, flukes happen in bad patterns sometimes... Kind of tangential, but DTX's winter outlook for this year briefly touched on location and persistence of tropical forcing last winter. Images 3-5: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=105043&source=2Edit: I went ahead and pulled the images. Interesting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not sure why you think this. It's December there's plenty of cold arctic air in Canada. Where? I'm just not seeing it in the medium/extended range run after run after model run. At times the -20 C stuff is completely obliterated from the northern provinces. It's all on the other side of the world. Lousy pattern, but I believe we saw something similar for a couple weeks this fall, then November happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Time for people to relax about this upcoming change. Yes punting until after Christmas is most likely the best case scenario. Between Christmas and New Years things to get more interesting but not necessarily ideal. It is looking like blocking is not likely going to get established until we get into the New Year. Yes the Arctic air will take a while to return. Now there will be some systems (thread the needle/sneak storms/throw your name type storm) that will occur between now and then. Since mid-September it has been pretty dry (typical nino like precip wise) weather except the northern WI, northern MI & the UP. Yes we had a very cold November which cause LES areas to have an incredible November but most other places were pretty much cold and dry during the November outbreak. Just getting it cold is not what we need. Right now this region needs a decent pattern reset and shift things around on the Pacific and Atlantic basins for us (Midwest/GLs) to get into cold & stormy pattern. Wall to wall cold & snowy winters are extremely rare winters and this is obviously not going be one either. I am willing to wait if a boring December is what it takes to get thing shifted around in our favor for the rest of winter. Not saying it is absolutely going to do just that but I hope we are progressing toward in that direction. Keep in mind there are many pre-winter signals that this winter would become exciting so lets just see how thing progress during the rest of the month into New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Time for people need to relax about this upcoming change. Yes punting until after Christmas is most likely the best case scenario. Between Christmas and New Years things to get more interesting but not necessarily ideal. It is looking like blocking is not likely going to get established until we get into the New Year. Yes the Arctic air will take a while to return. Now there will be some systems (thread the needle/sneak storms/throw your name type storm) that will occur between now and then. Since mid-September it has been pretty dry (typical nino like precip wise) weather except the northern WI, northern MI & the UP. Yes we had a very cold November which cause LES areas to have an incredible November but most other places were pretty much cold and dry during the November outbreak. Just getting it cold is not what we need. Right now this region needs a decent pattern reset and shift things around on the Pacific and Atlantic basins for us (Midwest/GLs) to get into cold & stormy pattern. Wall to wall cold & snowy winters are extremely rare winters and this is obviously not going be one either. I am willing to wait if a boring December is what it takes to get thing shifted around in our favor for the rest of winter. Not saying it is absolutely going to do just that but I hope we are progressing toward in that direction. Keep in mind there are many pre-winter signals that this winter would become exciting so lets just see how thing progress during the rest of the month into New Years. But, we're impatient and want snow and cold :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ban powerball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes, please... post-107-0-87054600-1418101227.gif 660 hrs? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I literally just laughed out loud. That's gotta be a record. 660 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 FWIW, the GFS op run has continued to have a colder look over the past few runs in the day 7/8 range 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I literally just laughed out loud. That's gotta be a record. 660 hrs. We had people post the 1000+ hrs maps on here before during boring patterns like this one. Powerball (like most right now) is just weather bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 660 hrs? Seriously? Didn't know it existed until today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 We had people post the 1000+ hrs maps on here before during boring patterns like this one. Powerball (like most right now) is just weather bored. Yep, thus the in my post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 FWIW, the GFS op run has continued to have a colder look over the past few runs in the day 7/8 range 12z GFS gfsUS_850_temp_180.gif It has trended somewhat colder, but its still disheartning seeing the core of the cold bottled up on the otherside of the planet. That is what I hope changes as we progress throughout the month. Also it would be nice to see some legit storm activity, this also seems to be hard to comeby and the 12z is no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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