A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro EPS control run is south with the second system but a 4-8" for central/northern MO on over to LAF/Indy some serious euro ensemble member big dogs for this one as well. looking more like a punt every model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 pure porn only but I like! would prefer to see a more spread the wealth type pattern for the whole sub tho. makes tracking more fun, but I can go for 3-4' of snow! gfsp_asnow_us_41.png A nice 500 mile swath of snow over the midwest would be nice, but I guess it's better this -- than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 looking more like a punt every model run Hey, speak for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hey, speak for yourself. Yeah looks decent here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah looks decent here too. It's reverted back to yesterdays 12Z GFS run, but slightly more favorable with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The cyclonic wave break action resulting from the "Grinch" storm is what will help build heights over Greenland (ie negative "NAO"). This combined with the retracting Pac jet are resulting what looks like a pretty damn stable, and favorable, longwave pattern. Look at the height anomalies on the 12 ECMWF. Now that's a -NAO: There has also been some talk amongst those with access to the EC weeklies and ensemble mean out to 300+ hours that upstream wave driving will be on the verge of (potentially) splitting the PV from the bottom up by early Jan. We are definitely entering a favorable period that could be sticking around for awhile. And no, the pattern change is not a "fail" because the first or second shots at snow miss you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Fun #1 analog from CPC in the 8-14 day. Beavis would dig it. Taken from here (time sensitive): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Snapshot of the manual analog list: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 This is kinda neat on the GGEM. Look at the interaction between the Christmas storm and the follow-up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ^ Thanks for posting that, Tim. Yeah, that would be fun. The GGEM has some kind of Fujiwara effect going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 at the very least......things have improved.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1059 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACELOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT WEEKAS EMBEDDED IMPUSLES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFICRIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY NEG-TILT TROUGH ALOFTWORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE NERN STATES INTO DAYS5/6 WED/THU. SUSPECT A THREAT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED WINTER WEATHERIN LEAD FLOW OVER A COOLED NRN NEW ENG AIRMASS TUE WITH LOWINDUCED WRAP-AROUND SNOWS SPREADING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ANDGREAT LAKE STATES/MIDWEST LINGERING PAST TUE/WED THAT WORK MORE INERNEST OUT THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MAINLY INTERIOR NRNMID-ATLANTIC/NERN US ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS.MEANWHILE...NRN/NERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD WORKSHARPLY SEWD THROUGH AND TO THE LEE OF AN AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM MEANRIDGE POSITION TO SPREAD DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PCPN INTO THE PAC NWWED AND FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAINWEST/ROCKIES CHRISTMAS INTO NEXT FRI. THIS WILL INCLUDE A THREATFOR MODERATELY HEAVY SNOWS FOCUSING OVER FAVORED INLAND TERRAIN.THIS WRN US SYSTEM REACHES THE CENTRAL US IN ABOUT A WEEKPROMPTING CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS AND PCPN/INFLOW RECOVERY OUT FROMTHE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD/EXITING ERN/NERN USSTRONG LOW SYSTEM INCLUDING SOME WINTERY PCPN THREAT ON THE NWPERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD SPREADING NEWD FROM THECENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES RIDING OVERTOP WARMSECTOR CONVECTIVE RAINS.SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Thinking TO sees at least one 6"+ system between now and 1/10. Pattern has more potentially than it has had in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Thinking TO sees at least one 6"+ system between now and 1/10. Pattern has more potentially than it has had in years. Agree 100%. Thinking right around the new year for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The 26/27th system looks pretty sweet on the new PGFS. Nice swath of heavy snow from Iowa points east towards Michigan. So much depends on how the 24/25th system evolves, so this is still sort of fantasy land stuff. Still nice to see potential with another storm later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 yeah, just impossible to think too much about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Geesh. Euro EPS control run whips a 3rd and quite strong cutter around day 8 behind the would be second system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We lucked up with a fair amount of sunshine today (mainly from the late morning hours and forward), for a change. It felt foreign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Thinking TO sees at least one 6"+ system between now and 1/10. Pattern has more potentially than it has had in years. Climo wise I think we're down to averaging just under 2/winter. Already 1 under the belt. Reaching climo around the 1/3 mark of the snow season would be pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Really too early to look beyond Christmas until the models resolve the "Santabomb" or whatever you want to call it, but the differences by next Friday are stark indeed. The GFS depicts a zonal flow, resulting in a weak sauce clipper skirting the Northern Plains into the Northern Lakes. Meanwhile, the Euro develops a fairly deep trough, spinning up a cutter that delivers the goods to Iowa and Wisconsin. (The PGFS appears to parallel the Euro. lol) Finally, the Canadian shows a shallower, more progressive trough, with the results being a low riding the OV valley, giving Indiana, Ohio, and Southern Michigan a quick hitter. Does anybody have any ideas on which one is more likely to verify and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Really too early to look beyond Christmas until the models resolve the "Santabomb" or whatever you want to call it, but the differences by next Friday are stark indeed. The GFS depicts a zonal flow, resulting in a weak sauce clipper skirting the Northern Plains into the Northern Lakes. gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.png Meanwhile, the Euro develops a fairly deep trough, spinning up a cutter that delivers the goods to Iowa and Wisconsin. (The PGFS appears to parallel the Euro. lol) ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png Finally, the Canadian shows a shallower, more progressive trough, with the results being a low riding the OV valley, giving Indiana, Ohio, and Southern Michigan a quick hitter. gem-ens_z500a_us_25.png Does anybody have any ideas on which one is more likely to verify and why? I certainly have no idea which is most likely to verify, but the turn towards below normal temps is inevitable shortly after Christmas, so I sure as hell hope the Euro-like solution is wrong. Im sure clippers will spin out of the NW flow, but where/how strong they are is always only decided a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 6z para GFS is certainly a weenie run for the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 6z para GFS is certainly a weenie run for the subforum Sure. If you like seasonably cold and mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 We lucked up with a fair amount of sunshine today (mainly from the late morning hours and forward), for a change. It felt foreign. I was in Jackson all day, didn't see any sun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Really too early to look beyond Christmas until the models resolve the "Santabomb" or whatever you want to call it, but the differences by next Friday are stark indeed. The GFS depicts a zonal flow, resulting in a weak sauce clipper skirting the Northern Plains into the Northern Lakes. Meanwhile, the Euro develops a fairly deep trough, spinning up a cutter that delivers the goods to Iowa and Wisconsin. (The PGFS appears to parallel the Euro. lol) Finally, the Canadian shows a shallower, more progressive trough, with the results being a low riding the OV valley, giving Indiana, Ohio, and Southern Michigan a quick hitter. Does anybody have any ideas on which one is more likely to verify and why? You need to broaden the picture to see the differences. Here's the 0z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS 500h mean at 144 hours. Notice all have some form of pseudo/temporary -NAO, but the real difference is on the other side where the EPS has more ridging out west than the GEFS or GEPS. The look on the EPS is favorable for running a system up through our region. It's forcing the shortwave west and south and then ejects as the blocking to the northeast moves off. Also some SE ridging makes an appearance due to the western ridging and temp -NAO. Kinda makes sense in the grand scheme of things. I guess timing/evolution of the moving parts will be sort of critical. FWIW, pretty good agreement amongst the 0z EPS individual members of a storm in the general TX panhandle area at 144 hours. Where they go after that is a bit more spread out, but the mean takes it basically just north of STL and then ORD. We'll see how it all shakes out, but I'd rather be west of a STL-ORD-MKE line right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You need to broaden the picture to see the differences. Here's the 0z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS 500h mean at 144 hours. Notice all have some form of pseudo/temporary -NAO, but the real difference is on the other side where the EPS has more ridging out west than the GEFS or GEPS. eps 500h 144.png gefs 500h 144.png geps 500h 144.png The look on the EPS is favorable for running a system up through our region. It's forcing the shortwave west and south and then ejects as the blocking to the northeast moves off. Also some SE ridging makes an appearance due to the western ridging and temp -NAO. Kinda makes sense in the grand scheme of things. I guess timing/evolution of the moving parts will be sort of critical. FWIW, pretty good agreement amongst the 0z EPS individual members of a storm in the general TX panhandle area at 144 hours. Where they go after that is a bit more spread out, but the mean takes it basically just north of STL and then ORD. We'll see how it all shakes out, but I'd rather be west of a STL-ORD-MKE line right now. Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if the Christmas Eve storm squashes this one, the GFS Ensembles in general painting that picture. Coolish and dry for most of them, though a couple bring light snow back into the Lakes as early as Christmas Day Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro and PGFS have been very consistent for days in showing the 27th system. All this while the same model was showing very powerful bomb scenarios with the 24th storm. This gives me some pretty decent confidence that the 27th system should be halfway decent. In fact, it must be a pretty potent system to be following such a strong storm that wants to flatten things out behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Sure. If you like seasonably cold and mostly dry. Huh? Look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Huh? Look again My bad. You said para. Don't look at that so I'll take your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 My bad. You said para. Don't look at that so I'll take your word for it. No worries. Check out the 12z OP GFS. Another nice weenie run. It's coming I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 No worries. Check out the 12z OP GFS. Another nice weenie run. It's coming I think. shows a nice cold stormy pattern from just before New Years to the end of the run.....I think this looks about right. I bet we have 1 or 2 good events to track for the subforum in this period but the pattern is transient and by the end of the first week in Jan we are looking at another mild/seasonal zzzzzz stretch. Looks like the AO is forecasted to head towards neutral/positive as well as the NAO, once the first few days of January are over. I think calls of a lock in cold and snowy pattern in January lasting thru the rest of the winter are wrong. I think we'll see much more variability. Days of seasonally mild followed by in and out arctic plunges, wash and repeat. Looking like a very forgettable winter....not bad, just forgettable in an average kind of way. Of course JB is now analoging this winter to '77-'78 because of the cold nov and pull back in december. Can he ever put forth analog years that are not historic years? I mean is it possible to put out analog years that we actually have to be reminded what happened those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 JB- The soap opera of the money induced forecasting model. While his theories can hold merit, overshadowed by what the public wants to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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