Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 nice^ the agreement on both placement and strength at this range is a great sign something to track....that alone should get the siren, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If I recall right didn't the blizzard of 78 start off as +RN, for DTX. The MJO has a different look this am, with a branch heading into the 3rd sector. Perhaps we can get all of December's snow in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lets hold off travel plans for a bit on this one . There are so many possibilities...at this point I dont see Chicago anymore gold then we are. Initially this certainly looks like a burst of rain...what happens with the L after is anyones guess. The fact is, climatologically speaking, Chicago and Bo's locations definitely have a better shot at getting an epic snowstorm out of this, if it were to bomb out, than we do. Most of us don't need to see several more days of model runs to determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble mean has a track from Paducah, Ky to W MI and up towards Val D'or. Big time MSLP centre for this range. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121700/ Based on this link, the mean track is Hour 168 - NW TN/SW KY Hour 192 - Ontario. This would imply its tracking through about Windsor, ON, not W MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If I recall right didn't the blizzard of 78 start off as +RN, for DTX. The MJO has a different look this am, with a branch heading into the 3rd sector. Perhaps we can get all of December's snow in a few hours. This is nothing like the 78 blizzard. No real arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The fact is, climatologically speaking, Chicago and Bo's locations definitely have a better shot at getting an epic snowstorm out of this, if it were to bomb out, than we do. Most of us don't need to see several more days of model runs to determine that. Thats fine, but to my knowledge one model run has bombed (the 00z Euro) and at face value it is still a rainstorm for most (incl Chicago). Guess I will be rooting against the bomb them...just give me a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121700/ Based on this link, the mean track is Hour 168 - NW TN/SW KY Hour 192 - Ontario. This would imply its tracking through about Windsor, ON, not W MI May be a typo (maybe he meant E MI). However, I could see the thing being depicted as moving due north into W MI as it bombs and then wobbling to the east post-occlusion. edit: btw...thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Northern lower Michigan for this Much to early to know where best locale will be, but will say there is a pretty good chance for epic LES once the storm pushes North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If I recall right didn't the blizzard of 78 start off as +RN, for DTX. The MJO has a different look this am, with a branch heading into the 3rd sector. Perhaps we can get all of December's snow in a few hours. Plus there was a massive snowpack in place BEFORE the '78 blizzard. Yes the '78 blizzard did start out as +RN for DTW...but remember...it NEVER was a huge snowmaker here. I mean, a nice snowstorm, but we have had MANY bigger snowstorms since then. It would be actually interesting to see if we ever had that setup again, how all the local snowfans who glorify that storm would react. Would they be praising an 8-9" snowfall because there was already a deep snowpack in place and mainly because it was a true meteoroligical bomb, versus a more subdued attitude getting 10-12" from a run-of-the-mill cutter, superclipper, etc. I never look at things like that. i just care about the sensible weather. If i get 8-9" of snow, its 8-9" of snow, if I get 10-12", its 10-12". Actually...from a SNOW/SENSIBLE WEATHER aspect....Jan 5, 2014 and Jan 26, 1978 were similar, but Id have to go with 2014 if I had to choose. Deep snowpack in place, nice snowstorm, then arctic plunge. The arctic plunge and snowstorm were a little better in 2014, the snowpack was about the same in both 1978 and 2014. Talking sensible weather in Detroit.....obviously most elsewhere '78 prevails as king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is nothing like the 78 blizzard. No real arctic air. Thats fine, but to my knowledge one model run has bombed (the 00z Euro) and at face value it is still a rainstorm for most (incl Chicago). Guess I will be rooting against the bomb them...just give me a White Christmas. I wouldn't focus on the model temp profiles verbatim that far out, especially since they partially hinge on the evolution of the preceeding two systems.That said, even ignoring the EURO solution, all signs are pointing to a significant storm somewhere in our vicinity over the next 2 weeks with the impressive amount of jet energy entering the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 May be a typo (maybe he meant E MI). However, I could see the thing being depicted as moving due north into W MI as it bombs and then wobbling to the east post-occlusion. edit: btw...thanks for the link! No prob...enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This has the potential to be an all-out Grinch event for Toronto. Thankfully it's still a week away, so things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This has the potential to be an all-out Grinch event for Toronto. Thankfully it's still a week away, so things could change. If we're given fair notice that it's a rainer, I'll be ok. December 2003 was a true, evil grinch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 something to track....that alone should get the siren, eh? hard not to be excited when the GEFS and EFS are both bullish on a deep low near detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lets hold off travel plans for a bit on this one . There are so many possibilities...at this point I dont see Chicago anymore gold then we are. Initially this certainly looks like a burst of rain...what happens with the L after is anyones guess. I wasn't saying anything about where this storm will actually end up. Bo will have a white Christmas regardless of this storm. If those maps were to happen as posted above then he would also get slammed. To get a great white Christmas with a ton more snow on the way ... I would rather be in Bo's location. That was not a forecast at all as nothing about this storm is set. Heck the EURO for the 20th storm had some major system runs ... now look at that system/thread. This one does have better support but I expect lots of changes between now and Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is nothing like the 78 blizzard. No real arctic air. True.. My thought was just because a system starts out as rain doesn't correlate to a total wash out. The timing of this one could be epic !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I guess the biggest surprise to me is how much model consensus there is for being 192+ hours out still how often does that happen, that in its own right is more impressive. Granted they all have there own solutions but every major model is showing a storm in some shape, and the majors are showing monsters and getting ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 looked at the pgfs...zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Watching the models, and coming here for analysis. IF (that being a big IF) the track, and barometric pressures indicated by the models verify, what does that mean for Northern IL, Southern WI, and Northwest IN, in terms of precip? Now, if the pressure does get that low, is it possible, that the lower pressure could draw colder air in to the upper levels faster, resulting in a faster change over to snow, if the storm starts out as rain in some areas? Given that this is 8 days out, the above questions are highly academic. However, I am just trying to get a feel for what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WPC highlights a "greater than average impact" event ~24th in their disco.... 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Watching the models, and coming here for analysis. IF (that being a big IF) the track, and barometric pressures indicated by the models verify, what does that mean for Northern IL, Southern WI, and Northwest IN, in terms of precip? Now, if the pressure does get that low, is it possible, that the lower pressure could draw colder air in to the upper levels faster, resulting in a faster change over to snow, if the storm starts out as rain in some areas? Given that this is 8 days out, the above questions are highly academic. However, I am just trying to get a feel for what is being shown. Verify or not, the Euro is a pretty lame hit in the snow department. We are going to be mixy/wet on the front end and once the low bombs to our east, we are left with wrap around crumbs. The suddenly popular pGFS drops like 4 flakes. The 6z op GFS is the most generous with a prolonged period of wrap around snows. I have a natural bias against wraparound events but this is a different setup than usual with a potentially dynamic phase, decent duration, and hard left turn. What we aren't seeing are signs of a large WAA snow shield, partially due to the crappy antecedent air mass and partially due to the unorthodox track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That wouldn't be a ton of snow for Ohio, but that would be a ton of wind to go along with it Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Oh yes sign me up! You're right that it wouldn't have much snow, but there would be some just because there would likely be a southwest-northeast moving flash freeze of some kind, similar to '78. There would at least be some wrap around snow showers to whiten things up... and certainly some strong winds. Blizzard conditions would be possible for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 best write up I could find highlighting the players with an appropriate broad-brush at this juncture... BUF.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THENAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTHINDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THESTRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAYTO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK ANDALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTERCOLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERECONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCEOF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUNDCHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERNFOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THISTIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TOCONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEMAROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTEROF THE NATION. STAY TUNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Verify or not, the Euro is a pretty lame hit in the snow department. We are going to be mixy/wet on the front end and once the low bombs to our east, we are left with wrap around crumbs. The suddenly popular pGFS drops like 4 flakes. The 6z op GFS is the most generous with a prolonged period of wrap around snows. I have a natural bias against wraparound events but this is a different setup than usual with a potentially dynamic phase, decent duration, and hard left turn. What we aren't seeing are signs of a large WAA snow shield, partially due to the crappy antecedent air mass and partially due to the unorthodox track. I was wondering about rain/snow mix possibilities. It's in the forecast for Tuesday, and the few days ahead of the potential system are in the upper 30's low 40's, which usually leads to mixy type preicp for us. I never trust wraparound snows. Most of the QPF gets used up on the front end anyway, and any wrapround that left is normally flurries anyway. So, even if this storm winds up, it's all going to happen east of here, at this stage. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I was wondering about rain/snow mix possibilities. It's in the forecast for Tuesday, and the few days ahead of the potential system are in the upper 30's low 40's, which usually leads to mixy type preicp for us. I never trust wraparound snows. Most of the QPF gets used up on the front end anyway, and any wrapround that left is normally flurries anyway. So, even if this storm winds up, it's all going to happen east of here, at this stage. Got it. not necessarily, lots to work out but obviously we need a few things to go our way for big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 fwiw 12z gfs will continue with the major cyclone trend, snow prospects uncertain edit: big, deep, and lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well, no thanks to outside Facebook weather peeps, the "b" word has now been thrown out there for this system. Naturally, it has been shared across many of my friends already. Bring on the mass hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Xmas eve system becomes so big and massive the one digging down behind it out west can't do much of anything. Just major cold to follow the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well, no thanks to outside Facebook weather peeps, the "b" word has now been thrown out there for this system. Naturally, it has been shared across many of my friends already. Bring on the mass hysteria. Yeah.... not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Xmas eve system becomes so big and massive the one digging down behind it out west can't do much of anything. Just major cold to follow the first system. yeah, the trailing system is DOA, it's all or nothing with this one before we head back into a boring cold/dry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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