cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 966mb over Saginaw Bay at 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That wouldn't be a ton of snow for Ohio, but that would be a ton of wind to go along with it Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Oh yes sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow @ the 150kt H5 jet rounding the base over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's pretty warm though, pesky pesky warm tongue at 850mb that draws warm air into the storm. Heaviest snow totals end up being early on. But man that track is mighty impressive as the the system as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Big storm still looks to follow for the weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What is interesting is the trof continues to center is self a little further west and is stronger. Trof digs further south and west and taps some warmer air and allowing it to advect northward, creating a stronger baroclinic zone....stronger storm. Parts of eastern TN/KY in the warm sector get 850mb temps up to 10 deg C, much warmer than the 12z run showed. 65-70 dews off the coast as the trof carves itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Big storm still looks to follow for the weekend as well. It really tries to but the wave is more sheared out/positive tilt this run as it crosses the Rockies compared to the 12z run and last nights run. But the baroclinic zone continues to be advertised as quite impressive in that timeframe if anything were to eject out over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yep...blizzard of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yep...blizzard of 78 No it isn't. That storm was 10 mb deeper than this one at its peak and had a lot more precipitation. It was also much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No it isn't. That storm was 10 mb deeper than this one at its peak and had a lot more precipitation. It was also much colder. well pretty close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It really tries to but the wave is more sheared out/positive tilt this run as it crosses the Rockies compared to the 12z run and last nights run. But the baroclinic zone continues to be advertised as quite impressive in that timeframe if anything were to eject out over it. Yeah there is going to be too much confluence behind the first storm that the second storm isn't going to have a chance. That being said the pattern shift to a trough out west with a strong baroclinic zone like you mention in place should yield down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This thing has had very decent euro ensemble support for a few days now as well. Will be interesting to see what they show in a half hour or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This thing has had very decent euro ensemble support for a few days now as well. Will be interesting to see what they show in a half hour or so.. And this continues. The mean is a bit stronger and further se of the 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Harry, you got the Snow maps for EURO BAC? QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 All I can say to the Euro is put down the pipe and slowly back away. What a weenie run. I hope it's on to something, but the ens. mean looks more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Harry, you got the Snow maps for EURO BAC? QPF? it's kind of disappointing and a bit goofy for a 960 low over MI....lol....widespread 1-6" over much of MI, OH, IN, and KY....of course we're discussing snow fall for a fantasy bomb 8 days out. taken verbatim Christmas day in MI, OH, and IN would be complete with whiteouts and 50mph winds. I see GGEM lost the storm but the UK looks ominous at 144, (but probably for the guys further west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro is zzzz flurry blizzard 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No antecedent arctic airmass in place means this storm is DOA if you're as far east as me (assuming the present iteration of a bomb like storm is correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No antecedent arctic airmass in place means this storm is DOA if you're as far east as me (assuming the present iteration of a bomb like storm is correct). Agree, and imagine if there were a 1040 high pressing in from the nw instead of a dying low. Most of the snow that falls is backlash after the storm cranks over MI. Still would be a cool storm to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 6z gfs wouldn't suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 6z gfs wouldn't suck Pattern change the ALE way: from zzzzzz to "wouldn't suck." Step by step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble mean has a track from Paducah, Ky to W MI and up towards Val D'or. Big time MSLP centre for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Pattern change the ALE way: from zzzzzz to "wouldn't suck." Step by step. I'm playing some catchup, doing some clicking and looking at the latest GFS ensembles, the Euro honking, etc...there is definitely something brewing. Unconventional go big or go home phase setup with a decent ceiling if it all comes together. Bonus points for timing. Quite a few lookers in the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Pretty good ensemble support for something happening...especially 6+ days out. 6z GEFS ensemble mean 0z EPS individual members at 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 nice^ the agreement on both placement and strength at this range is a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 May have to plan a trip to Chicago for this one... At least we do have a pretty good signal for a storm of regional significance between now and New Years 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 May have to plan a trip to Chicago for this one... At least we do have a pretty good signal for a storm of regional significance between now and New Years 2015. I would rather be in Bo's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Agree, and imagine if there were a 1040 high pressing in from the nw instead of a dying low. Most of the snow that falls is backlash after the storm cranks over MI. Still would be a cool storm to follow That or if the whole trough axis shifted east by about 500 miles. 7 days to go. Who knows what'll end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I would rather be in Bo's location. Northern lower Michigan for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I would rather be in Bo's location. May have to plan a trip to Chicago for this one... At least we do have a pretty good signal for a storm of regional significance between now and New Years 2015. Lets hold off travel plans for a bit on this one . There are so many possibilities...at this point I dont see Chicago anymore gold then we are. Initially this certainly looks like a burst of rain...what happens with the L after is anyones guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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