josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NOT THAT! Yes anything but that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have the over of 6.0" of snow at ORD between now and Jan 1 at 6z with Caplan. Bullish maybe but oh well.Easy under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NOT THAT! Well, he is in ORD. Not a hell of a lot of good it does him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para GFS is wild for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para GFS is wild for Christmas. Days and days of the coldest of rain. I'm not sure that solution is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Was playing around in Excel tonight, and found that Chicago is most likely to experience a strong snowstorm (criteria I went with was 10"+) in a negative-EPO positive-PNA, negative-AO and negative-NAO regime. Dates used to make that conclusion were off the LOT snow records page (somehow misplaced the link). Sample size was 22 snow events, early 1950s to the GHD storm. It's no secret those phases support such a wintry pattern for the region, the idea was to at least build a statistically-viable foundation for the concept. Sure enough, CPC projecting a dropping AO & NAO in the long term/closing days of 2014, while looking over the mid-level forecasts per ensemble guidance seems to support that -EPO, maybe even a +PNA. Whether anything actually comes of this pattern is anyone's guess, but the ingredients will be there for some snowy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yesterday's Euro weeklies sure are interesting as blizzardof96 mentioned day 16-17-18, control and ens. hinting at Greenland block setting up for quite a while, day 16 (dec 31) & beyond... Nice piece of energy dipping into the SW on day 16... #cutterwatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 yeah, cutter signal looks good just after xmas could easily be rain for most but it's better than zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS is zzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS is zzzzzzzzzzzzzz You are joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 pass The next frames will show more excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The next frames will show more excitement you mean the wind whipped flurries? pass it's a non-even for people outside lake belts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The next frames will show more excitement Even with that post-truncation smoothing of the 0c 850 line, sfc temps are relatively toasty. Unless you're talking about threats subsequent to that clipper. Clipper attm looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the turd of a cutoff associated with that clipper will keep the following system from really amplifying, could be a double whammy for the western half of the sub especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Punt till after xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Punt till after xmas Then we sit and watch the coast get blasted. Yippeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 pass since we all know 7-8 day solutions are always spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 since we all know 7-8 day solutions are always spot on. tis the nature of life in the medium/long range thread FWIW the last time you posted that comment, the euro nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 0z Euro ensemble mean actually has the trof setting up further west than what it showed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 tis the nature of life in the medium/long range thread FWIW the last time you posted that comment, the euro nailed it Well you got the last one right. Any predictions for this period now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well you got the last one right. Any predictions for this period now? the 22-24th clipper/cutoff will be lame outside the lake belts still holding out hope for a cutter around the 27-28th but that's obviously too far out for even me to be confident but i'm leaning towards more of an eastern event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 0z Euro ensemble mean actually has the trof setting up further west than what it showed yesterday. output_8S7ozh.gif I look at the D7-8 storm to be the pattern changer with the real action setting up after xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 apart from the extreme north and western areas of the subforum....and localized LES areas....zzzzzzz thru Boxing Day. After that, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z ggem says this is Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 people still look at the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Getting a nice SE ridge signal showing up well out in la la ensemble mean land after Xmas which is nice to see. The Euro control run has a parade of storms starting with the one around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 people still look at the ggem? hey, it never bought into the crazy stuff the rest of the models were wrt this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 people still look at the ggem? I'll look and see what it's doing with the cold but yeah, sfc map at 240hr? No I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Getting a nice SE ridge signal showing up well out in la la ensemble mean land after Xmas which is nice to see. The Euro control run has a parade of storms starting with the one around Xmas. I'm all for the ridge as long as it stays off the juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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