smoof Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z Euro agrees with the GFS on an Xmas Eve strong clipper type system, would be a nice coating and mood flakes for the northern part of the forum. Still in range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 congrats Pensacola Blizzard of 78, we welcome you (twice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Big time cold at the end of the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Blizzard of 78, we welcome you (twice) gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png lol I almost trotted that one out for New Years. 1918 started out farther south than 1978 though so that's why I mentioned that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Big time cold at the end of the 12z Euro euro is a worst case run, warm to dry/cold with little action aside from a strong clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 euro is a worst case run, warm to dry/cold with little action aside from a strong clipper The last few weeks have been worst case runs IMO. I'll take my clipper chances if nothing over this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The last few weeks have been worst case runs IMO. I'll take my clipper chances if nothing over this crap. i'm not giving up hope of a cutter or two before we head back into cold nw flow hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 1863-64!!!! One of the storms I wish we had maps for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i'm not giving up hope of a cutter or two before we head back into cold nw flow hell Oh no, me either. It's just nice to see Canada loading up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hopefully something good is in our future but in the meantime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 eps_z500a_exnamer_37.png nice, hope it isn't squandered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 eps_z500a_exnamer_37.png Great signal for the region especially those in the eastern two thirds of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 #1 analog on today's man made CPC day 11+ is December 27, 1978. Pretty good run of storminess and snowfall for Chicago, on and around that date. MDW dailies. Really going out on a limb, but 2.5 weeks after that date put this puppy out there that dropped 20.3" at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's one heck of a clipper like storm on the 18z GFS from Christmas to the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I have the over of 6.0" of snow at ORD between now and Jan 1 at 6z with Caplan. Bullish maybe but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Tonights weeklies have a really interesting look from 12/25-1/10 across the subforum with a rockies/northern plains trough and SE ridge. Plenty of cold air available with a -EPO/-NAO as well. Best big dog pattern potential wev'e seen in years if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Tonights weeklies have a really interesting look from 12/25-1/10 across the subforum with a rockies/northern plains trough and SE ridge. Plenty of cold air available with a -EPO/-NAO as well. Best big dog pattern potential wev'e seen in years if it verifies. The pattern looks almost Nina like given the SE Ridge and ridge positioning in the West. The fact that its been a warm month and we still got a great snowstorm out of it is incredible. Whats your thoughts on a potential SSW in early January? Models show some vigorous warming taking place across the Stratosphere and the chances of a moderately strong negative AO are becoming higher. I'm not sure how much of a correlation Sea ice in the Hudson Bay Area has on our weather and the PV, but it has frozen over about a week or two ahead of climatology. I haven't been following everything of late so I'm trying to gather as much information as i can atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 euro is a worst case run, warm to dry/cold with little action aside from a strong clipper Lots of disturbances to trigger LES, good for LES weenies. /me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern looks almost Nina like given the SE Ridge and ridge positioning in the West. The fact that its been a warm month and we still got a great snowstorm out of it is incredible. Whats your thoughts on a potential SSW in early January? Models show some vigorous warming taking place across the Stratosphere and the chances of a moderately strong negative AO are becoming higher. I'm not sure how much of a correlation Sea ice in the Hudson Bay Area has on our weather and the PV, but it has frozen over about a week or two ahead of climatology. I haven't been following everything of late so I'm trying to gather as much information as i can atm. It hasnt really been a warm month. Whats the departure approx at Toronto? Looking at the extended I bet December finishes slightly below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Lots of disturbances to trigger LES, good for LES weenies. /me After weeks of boredom there are tons of different disturbances/storms showing up. Could end up being a very good period for many here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i'm not giving up hope of a cutter or two before we head back into cold nw flow hell NOT THAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It hasnt really been a warm month. Whats the departure approx at Toronto? Looking at the extended I bet December finishes slightly below normal here. Really? Well, it hasn't been that warm here either, but its still a bit above normal. December on average is supposed to have a mean temperature of 28F, but thus far its 30.5F using 1981-2010 normals. However, YYZ recorded 7.4" of snow for the month thanks to that snowstorm we saw a few days ago. So it hasn't been a bad month i guess, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern looks almost Nina like given the SE Ridge and ridge positioning in the West. The fact that its been a warm month and we still got a great snowstorm out of it is incredible. Whats your thoughts on a potential SSW in early January? Models show some vigorous warming taking place across the Stratosphere and the chances of a moderately strong negative AO are becoming higher. I'm not sure how much of a correlation Sea ice in the Hudson Bay Area has on our weather and the PV, but it has frozen over about a week or two ahead of climatology. I haven't been following everything of late so I'm trying to gather as much information as i can atm. The pattern is expected to go nina like b/c tropical forcing is returning to the eastern hemisphere once again so the pac jet retracts and EPO crashes from the less favourable nino base state in early winter which actually tends to favour a more +EPO(which we saw this month). In terms of the strat, a wave 2 uptick looks almost certain given the RWB expecting to move into the AK region with a strengthening E Euro high at the same time. Their is pretty decent support for a wave 1 then wave 2 punch in the 10-20 day period. Depending on the look of the vortex downwelling can take anywhere from 1-3 weeks from that point so impacts will take a while(late Jan perhaps). With or without a true SSW, the AO looks to stay very neg in Jan with a -NAO/+PNA favoured in the means IMO given base state, analogs etc... especially mid/late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Really? Well, it hasn't been overly warm here either, but its still a bit above normal. December on average is supposed to have a mean temperature of 28F but thus far its 30.5F using 1981-2010 normals. However, YYZ recorded 7.4" of snow for the month with that snowstorm we saw a few days ago. So it hasn't been a bad month thanks to that, haha. We are sitting right at +0 here.... Today will push it up to +1 probably... Below normal December is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It hasnt really been a warm month. Whats the departure approx at Toronto? Looking at the extended I bet December finishes slightly below normal here. About +2.5F through 12/14. Was the last 2-3 days that pushed us into + territory (even without torching). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Considering what was progged....not really that insane of departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern is expected to go nina like b/c tropical forcing is returning to the eastern hemisphere once again so the pac jet retracts and EPO crashes from the less favourable nino base state in early winter which actually tends to favour a more +EPO(which we saw this month). In terms of the strat, a wave 2 uptick looks almost certain given the RWB expecting to move into the AK region with a strengthening E Euro high at the same time. Their is pretty decent support for a wave 1 then wave 2 punch in the 10-20 day period. Depending on the look of the vortex downwelling can take anywhere from 1-3 weeks from that point so impacts will take a while(late Jan perhaps). With or without a true SSW, the AO looks to stay very neg in Jan with a -NAO/+PNA favoured in the means IMO given base state, analogs etc... especially mid/late month. Excellent, I agree completely. The EPO has always been the wild card and when it isn't in our favour, like 2011-12, it can get pretty bad. Usually in El Nino's we see a more pronounced +PNA and Aleutian Low which pushes the trough further East which in turn favours more Coastal storms. However, in weak El Nino's if i'm not mistaken, the ridge in the West is a bit further West, almost Nina like, and we usually can cash in if other circumstances (NAO, PV, etc) are in our favour. BTW, what did the weeklies show in terms of the NAO? Was it East-based or West-based? January could be an exciting month. If a true SSW does happen, February could potentially end up being colder, similar to what happened in 1978-79. If we are going to see any decent snow in January IMO, i think our best potential would be early-mid January, agree? A strong polar jet-stream would be nice to get some good clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Excellent, I agree completely. The EPO has always been the wild card and when it isn't in our favour, like 2011-12, it can get pretty bad. Usually in El Nino's we see a more pronounced +PNA and Aleutian Low which pushes the trough further East which in turn favours more Coastal storms. However, in weak El Nino's if i'm not mistaken, the ridge in the West is a bit further West, almost Nina like, and we usually can cash in if other circumstances (NAO, PV, etc) are in our favour. BTW, what did the weeklies show in terms of the NAO? Was it East-based or West-based? January could be an exciting month. If a true SSW does happen, February could potentially end up being colder, similar to what happened in 1978-79. If we are going to see any decent snow in January IMO, i think our best potential would be early-mid January, agree? A strong polar jet-stream would be nice to get some good clippers. On the weeklies the -NAO starts off east based in the means before becoming increasingly west based by early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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