buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 5:35 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I'll look and see what it's doing with the cold but yeah, sfc map at 240hr? No I'm good .....in fairness every model blows in the 240 hour range....including the euro. GGEM never dumped 6" imby for this coming weekend....meanwhile the euro showed that scenario several runs over the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I really like the potential but can't help thinking these individual storms look worse and worse for significant snow as we get closer so far this year (Thanksgiving Monday notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 5:45 PM, wisconsinwx said: I really like the potential but can't help thinking these individual storms look worse and worse for significant snow as we get closer so far this year (Thanksgiving Monday notwithstanding). Jesus. You always act like each storm is the same and always pessimistic. Every storm is and will always be different and the atmosphere will do what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I really like the look of last night's Euro. Long lasting light snow event early next week, followed by some storm potential for the following weekend. Hopefully today's 12z comes in similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 5:54 PM, cyclone77 said: I really like the look of last night's Euro. Long lasting light snow event early next week, followed by some storm potential for the following weekend. Hopefully today's 12z comes in similar. The EPS control run from the 0z Euro is pretty wild as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 1:04 AM, Gilbertfly said: Considering what was progged....not really that insane of departures MonthTDeptMRCC 14dec fffffff.png Adding in yesterday does make it a bit warmer I was using the 15th as sort of a mental benchmark...if the departures would've been crazy then it would've been tough to turn it around in the back half of the month. This is doable...whether it happens remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Potentially useful patterns are just as useless as useless patterns if we can't get anything other than uselessness from the potential usefulness. Not saying that things will be useful or useless, but just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 5:56 PM, Thundersnow12 said: The EPS control run from the 0z Euro is pretty wild as well. Nice. Looking at the op H5 vort map progression between 200-240hrs looks very saucy. Looks like something could go HUGE beyond that. Hoping trends continue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:01 PM, cyclone77 said: Nice. Looking at the op H5 vort map progression between 200-240hrs looks very saucy. Looks like something could go HUGE beyond that. Hoping trends continue with that. Yeah a bomb is going off at the end of the op Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 this may have something to do with our anemic 'system' this weekend. Assuming it finds it's way out of the C.O.D. what do phases 3 and 4 look like for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:22 PM, buckeye said: this may have something to do with our anemic 'system' this weekend. Assuming it finds it's way out of the C.O.D. what do phases 3 and 4 look like for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro has a 990 mb low in central/eastern Kentucky Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 King Euro has spoken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:42 PM, cmichweather said: Euro has a 990 mb low in central/eastern Kentucky Christmas Eve. Yeah big time north/south trof with much sharper wave at the base of the trof and nice tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:42 PM, cmichweather said: Euro has a 990 mb low in central/eastern Kentucky Christmas Eve. yea, strange evolution....snow breaking out over much of IN, OH, KY by 192....might be trying to transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:52 PM, buckeye said: yea, strange evolution....snow breaking out over much of IN, OH, KY by 192....might be trying to transfer Yeah definitely a transfer, you can see the lower pressure extending out towards the Outer Banks at 192. Would have the temperature profile crashing as it transfers. 986 mb in Eastern PA at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 does it really actually transfer? eventually it's 984 in central PA. Goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:52 PM, buckeye said: yea, strange evolution....snow breaking out over much of IN, OH, KY by 192....might be trying to transfer Buck, didn't LC say this was the time to watch for something big west of the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 My gosh at the trof out west and baroclinic zone out ahead of it by Christmas night at the end of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:57 PM, pondo1000 said: Buck, didn't LC say this was the time to watch for something big west of the apps? yup, stick a fork in it. Actually it's not a big snow producer....large area of 2-4" over OH, IN, KY....Apps get crushed. Of course this is all moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:59 PM, buckeye said: yup, stick a fork in it. Actually it's not a big snow producer....large area of 2-4" over OH, IN, KY....Apps get crushed. Of course this is all moot. 2-4 would be a HUGE win for us so far this winter! You are right though, this will be sure to change many times til then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 after that exits, check out the 500, at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:59 PM, Thundersnow12 said: My gosh at the trof out west and baroclinic zone out ahead of it by Christmas night at the end of the 12z Euro. MSP cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 My recollection is pattern flips to winter at or around the Christmas and New Years period always foretold a very good winter. Not a stitch of meteorology or model trend behind it. Just 45 years of weather memories. I think were rounding the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:03 PM, buckeye said: after that exits, check out the 500, at 240. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:12 PM, Powerball said: Pass. i didn't say it was good, I said check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:18 PM, buckeye said: i didn't say it was good, I said check it out Yes, I checked it out. Verbatim, pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:26 PM, Powerball said: Yes, I checked it out. Verbatim, pass. I think it would partly depend on how quickly the east coast low gets out of there. But yeah, wouldn't take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:04 PM, Chicago Storm said: MSP cutter. yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 You know it's boring when we're analyzing what the Euro is going to do after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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