Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 time for a fresh start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Keep the JB stuff out of here...there's a thread for it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z GFS really backed off the warm up for most of the subforum. Mild spell really getting trimmed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z GFS really backed off the warm up for most of the subforum. Mild spell really getting trimmed down. You don't say, persistent patterns are hard to break, we've been below average for 12 of the last 13 months, and the one month that was above average was barely so. December may still end up below average, especially if the GFS is right and the warm up is brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If we could see the D11 EURO it looks like it could potentially be interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If we could see the D11 EURO it looks like it could potentially be interesting? The rest can be seen at a websites like: Porno . Com But seriously that was the best potential we have seen for this area in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Browsing the NE forum, in addition to this warm spell being pushed back back back, some of the mets are saying the signal keeps growing and growing for a sharp turn to cold near the Winter Solstice. The boring weather is undeniable, but Im really starting to think that this torch that will end up being talked about for a month will end up being a run of the mill few days well above normal. FOR REFERENCE... DETROIT....1874-2013 Avg number of days per December the high is 40F+...10 days Avg number of days per December the high is 45F+.....5 days Avg number of days per December the high is 50F+.....3 days Avg number of days per December the high is 55F+.....1 day The most days in a December the high was 40F+......27 days (1881) The most days in a December the high was 45F+......19 days (1881) The most days in a December the high was 50F+......11 days (1982) The most days in a December the high was 55F+........8 days (1982) The most days in a December the high was 60F+........6 days (1982) The most days in a December the high was 65F+........3 days (1998) Max December temp: 69F (1998) *Only 12 times in the last 140 years did Detroit not hit 45F+ in December *Only 2 times in the last 140 years did Detroit not hit 40F+ in December (1910 & 2000 when the max was 38F each time) ******************************************************************************************* CHICAGO....1872-2013 Avg number of days per December the high is 40F+...10 days Avg number of days per December the high is 45F+.....6 days Avg number of days per December the high is 50F+.....3 days Avg number of days per December the high is 55F+.....2 days The most days in a December the high was 40F+......26 days (1923) The most days in a December the high was 45F+......21 days (1889) The most days in a December the high was 50F+......16 days (1877) The most days in a December the high was 55F+........9 days (1982) The most days in a December the high was 60F+........9 days (1982) The most days in a December the high was 65F+........3 days (1975) Max December temp: 71F (1982) *Only 9 times in the last 142 years did Chicago not hit 45F+ in December *Only 2 times in the last 142 years did Chicago not hit 40F+ in December (1983 (max 38F) & 2000 (max 37F)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS does look like a return to winter starts around the 20th. It's growing much colder than was shown yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The rest can be seen at a websites like: Porno . Com But seriously that was the best potential we have seen for this area in weeks. MJO > pessimism. Who would have thunk it? Well, still lotsa time before this putative pattern change actually takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 hopefully the ggem has the 10 day pattern all wrong. I know enough to be dangerous when it comes to weather, but one thing I do know...low pressure trains across Canada are never a good thing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 hopefully the ggem has the 10 day pattern all wrong. I know enough to be dangerous when it comes to weather, but one thing I do know...low pressure trains across Canada are never a good thing for us. I guess if you want a bright side to what that is showing is it will build up a decent the snow cover up there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Browsing the NE forum, in addition to this warm spell being pushed back back back, some of the mets are saying the signal keeps growing and growing for a sharp turn to cold near the Winter Solstice. The boring weather is undeniable, but Im really starting to think that this torch that will end up being talked about for a month will end up being a run of the mill few days well above normal. As soon as it showed up on the models it was DOA...I'm not denying the milder pattern compared to November...but the extended well above norm didn't have a chance. As you said, 2 weeks of heat condensed into 2 days will most likely be the reality for the true torch. As I mentioned to you in Part 1...we are entering a phase/pattern that looks a lot like the last week or so of October. IF that translates into a repeat of November during January things could get mighty chilly. Anywho, look through the transgression in late October and then gander at the next week or so on the models. Forget the fine details, but more of a focus on broad pattern in the upper levels... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20141022.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Maybe I am having a delusion, but it seems we are in a similar pattern to last year just two weeks early. We had a stretch of mild weather last December locally with heavy rain the third week of December. I just wonder if we won't see a similar progression with the cold returning in a big way the fourth week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What a crap weather pattern until Dec 20th or so, 0.25 qpf here and probably rain. I'm Hoping the Dec 20th+ pattern change and cooldown happens that the the long range models are showing. (this probably should be in the complaint thread lol). I'm not dreaming of a green x-mas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well, so far, the local 10 day has us in the mid 40's to the low 50's from the 11th - 14th, well to be honest, it shows only one day creeping to 50 or above. Still shows low 40's through the end of the 10 day, which is the 16th. It would be nice if the cold air arrived sooner, as opposed to later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I have a sneaky suspicion the warmth on tap will get muted more and more over the next week or so. Not to say the warmth will not build but the moon cycle is not in phase with a drastic weather change. Around the 19-21 I suspect the cold will arrive (storm) if not then December could be a total loss WRT wintery weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 18z GFS says, "Winter TBD". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This respite from the cold has been a pleasure. Enjoy it. Winter will be back in time for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 As soon as it showed up on the models it was DOA...I'm not denying the milder pattern compared to November...but the extended well above norm didn't have a chance. As you said, 2 weeks of heat condensed into 2 days will most likely be the reality for the true torch. As I mentioned to you in Part 1...we are entering a phase/pattern that looks a lot like the last week or so of October. IF that translates into a repeat of November during January things could get mighty chilly. Anywho, look through the transgression in late October and then gander at the next week or so on the models. Forget the fine details, but more of a focus on broad pattern in the upper levels... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20141022.html There is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago. (analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 There is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago. (analysis) Well, I would say that's a pretty dang solid correlation there...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 18z GFS says, "Winter TBD". It was an awful run. The cold seems to be locked up on the otherside of the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 It was an awful run. The cold seems to be locked up on the otherside of the planet. Not sure why you think this. It's December there's plenty of cold arctic air in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well, I would say that's a pretty dang solid correlation there...lol Not sure others would see it that way. Also, I bet there are other maps that show the connection better than the WPCs. I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 In the grasping at straws department, models are indicating a moisture laden system in the central US next weekend. Cold air is going to be a question mark as well as where it tracks after leaving the Plains, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe one of the wackier 5H depictions in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 15C into Canada would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe one of the wackier 5H depictions in a while. USA_HGT_500mb_192.gif Just a hot mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Just a hot mess... I knew a girl in college that was built like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 hopefully it finds it's way out for xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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