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Dec 9-10 threat


stormtracker

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I'm willing to wager that some in our region see accumulating snow out of this system. Not willing to say if it's more than 1/4" or if it comes early in the storm or late, but I'll bet it happens.

I've haven't been looking too closely at this event because of the complicated evolution and large model spread. My original thoughts haven't changed. The best chance for snow to fall will be pieces of energy getting tossed down the backside. By the time that happens the storm will be mature and weakening so there's not much of a chance of heavy precip. Thermals suck for the cities as the low comes up and passes our latitude. You probably stand the best chance there if there is one. Euro has been holding on to overnight thurs for a little something. Column would support snow and surface looks half decent. Precip is light though.

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I'm willing to wager that some in our region see accumulating snow out of this system.  Not willing to say if it's more than 1/4" or if it comes early in the storm or late, but I'll bet it happens.

I'd wager that you see freezing rain.  You might see a little snow but not enough to get excited about....lows to our north usually don't do us much good. 

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I'd wager that you see freezing rain.  You might see a little snow but not enough to get excited about....lows to our north usually don't do us much good. 

Maybe so.  I think if I have any chance at snow, it will be early (tonight).  I was thinking the areas to the east, especially in and around the Baltimore area might see snow on the back side.

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    while just looking at the 850's would imply a marginal snow/sleet threat, there is a torch layer below that.   The threat for the northwest suburbs tonight is freezing rain, although as noted, the sfc temps are marginal.

 

 

The NAM is interesting for Leesburg and west tonight and tomorrow morning. 850's look good but the surface is not great. Maybe sleet?

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That edge tho. Could be our first storm in a while where we "bust" low.

 

yeah...I think 3/3/14 was a semi-bust. But this could be a bigger one.  On 3/2 models were still showing around 0.7" after the flip.  We flipped on time, but only got around .4" after the flip.  Plus flake size sucked.  We ended up around 9-10:1 here because of the burst at the end, but that was an underperformer.  0z models scaled way back on precip (other than the NAM of course), but everyone was asleep then.  most forecasts were 8-10", and ended up more like 4-5", except for a small area near centreville/manassas that got 8".  I don't think we cared though, because getting 4" of snow in March while it was 15 degrees, and sticking to highways and downtown streets during the day was so damn impressive anyway.

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UKMET has a really weird evolution, stalls the first low out then re-energizes it as the trailing vort swings through and actually rotates a decent bad of precip back through the area Wed-Thurs with colder temps... interesting, unlikely, but waiting on euro.  So far those 2 have looked identical run to run. 

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