snowfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Based on the NAM, I should visit Depot today to buy lumber for the new dock I'll be building off my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12Z NAM predicts the state of Delaware will be under water. Sharper cutoff with the heavier precip to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12Z NAM predicts the state of Delaware will be under water. Sharper cutoff with the heavier precip to the west. Verbatim it is colder for tonight and tomorrow morning and shows NW of the cities getting wintry precip. Interesting but it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Oh, I wasn't taking it serious, but it's the only model running right now Verbatim it is colder for tonight and tomorrow morning and shows NW of the cities getting wintry precip. Interesting but it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm willing to wager that some in our region see accumulating snow out of this system. Not willing to say if it's more than 1/4" or if it comes early in the storm or late, but I'll bet it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm willing to wager that some in our region see accumulating snow out of this system. Not willing to say if it's more than 1/4" or if it comes early in the storm or late, but I'll bet it happens. I've haven't been looking too closely at this event because of the complicated evolution and large model spread. My original thoughts haven't changed. The best chance for snow to fall will be pieces of energy getting tossed down the backside. By the time that happens the storm will be mature and weakening so there's not much of a chance of heavy precip. Thermals suck for the cities as the low comes up and passes our latitude. You probably stand the best chance there if there is one. Euro has been holding on to overnight thurs for a little something. Column would support snow and surface looks half decent. Precip is light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm willing to wager that some in our region see accumulating snow out of this system. Not willing to say if it's more than 1/4" or if it comes early in the storm or late, but I'll bet it happens. I'd wager that you see freezing rain. You might see a little snow but not enough to get excited about....lows to our north usually don't do us much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'd wager that you see freezing rain. You might see a little snow but not enough to get excited about....lows to our north usually don't do us much good. Maybe so. I think if I have any chance at snow, it will be early (tonight). I was thinking the areas to the east, especially in and around the Baltimore area might see snow on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NAM is interesting for Leesburg and west tonight and tomorrow morning. 850's look good but the surface is not great. Maybe sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ummmmm. It's snowing outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ummmmm. It's snowing outside! Well, just flurries really. But a nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ummmmm. It's snowing outside! It's December 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NAM is interesting for Leesburg and west tonight and tomorrow morning. 850's look good but the surface is not great. Maybe sleet? Torch at 950mb. Rain or if CAD holds FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 while just looking at the 850's would imply a marginal snow/sleet threat, there is a torch layer below that. The threat for the northwest suburbs tonight is freezing rain, although as noted, the sfc temps are marginal. The NAM is interesting for Leesburg and west tonight and tomorrow morning. 850's look good but the surface is not great. Maybe sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Snowing nicely in tysons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That edge tho. Could be our first storm in a while where we "bust" low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm backing way off on the NAM's idea of heavy rain early tomorrow for the east side of town. The GFS and NAM nest look very similar with much less precip in the Delmarva and much more streaming north towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 13km GFS only brings in just over a half inch to the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That edge tho. Could be our first storm in a while where we "bust" low. yeah...I think 3/3/14 was a semi-bust. But this could be a bigger one. On 3/2 models were still showing around 0.7" after the flip. We flipped on time, but only got around .4" after the flip. Plus flake size sucked. We ended up around 9-10:1 here because of the burst at the end, but that was an underperformer. 0z models scaled way back on precip (other than the NAM of course), but everyone was asleep then. most forecasts were 8-10", and ended up more like 4-5", except for a small area near centreville/manassas that got 8". I don't think we cared though, because getting 4" of snow in March while it was 15 degrees, and sticking to highways and downtown streets during the day was so damn impressive anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 13km GFS only brings in just over a half inch to the region RGEM not much more than that either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Light snow in Leesburg. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 UKMET has a really weird evolution, stalls the first low out then re-energizes it as the trailing vort swings through and actually rotates a decent bad of precip back through the area Wed-Thurs with colder temps... interesting, unlikely, but waiting on euro. So far those 2 have looked identical run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro showing 1" up and down 95 by 0z wednesday. Deluge on the eastern shore. 2+" there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Probably some mangled non-accumulating pity flakes at times if the broad wraparound idea on the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Probably some mangled non-accumulating pity flakes at times if the broad wraparound idea on the euro is right. yea, ukmet had the same idea, only it had a more consolidated significant band of precip come through wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12 hours earlier and as Mr Z said we would have been golden but high will be too far east tonight, decent flurries earlier. This is a quality problem to have versus days on end of 50's. Keep firing lows into 1035 highs and things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 yea, ukmet had the same idea, only it had a more consolidated significant band of precip come through wed night Euro has had the same thing off and on. Today was less impressive than recent runs. No biggie. It has never really looked good for our area since the threat emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro showing 1" up and down 95 by 0z wednesday. Deluge on the eastern shore. 2+" there yeah but what about the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tonight's radar show could be killer (either way) for you weirdos who track rain late at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If Jan 2000 was a rain event the Euro looks a bit like that locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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