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Dec 9-10 threat


stormtracker

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surface is 32

 

    looking at the bufr data, I'm seeing about 33 for Dulles for the first few hours of the event.   but the forecasted NAM profile is above freezing from roughly 880 mb down to the sfc, including about +5.5 C at 950 mb.     I will note, though, that the layer from 980 mb down to the sfc is just barely above freezing.   Forecasted profile for IAD at 09z Tuesday:

 

      PRES     HGHT     TMPC
   1006.00   113.10     0.74
   1001.30   150.80     0.44
    996.40   190.10     0.14
    991.60   228.80     0.04
    986.60   269.30     0.04
    981.50   310.90     0.14
    976.40   352.70     0.74
    971.10   396.50     0.74
    965.70   441.60     4.24
    960.10   488.90     4.04
    954.30   538.40     5.64
    948.20   590.80     5.14
    941.80   646.10     4.64
    935.20   703.40     4.04
    928.10   765.40     3.44
    920.50   832.10     2.84
    912.00   907.20     2.04
    902.20   994.30     1.24
    890.80  1096.50     0.24
    877.80  1214.40     0.04
    862.90  1351.70    -0.06
    846.10  1509.10    -0.46
    827.00  1691.70    -0.96
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NAM shows snow for me?

 

 

    looking at the bufr data, I'm seeing about 33 for Dulles for the first few hours of the event.   but the forecasted NAM profile is above freezing from roughly 880 mb down to the sfc, including about +5.5 C at 950 mb.     I will note, though, that the layer from 980 mb down to the sfc is just barely above freezing.   Forecasted profile for IAD at 09z Tuesday:

 

      PRES     HGHT     TMPC
   1006.00   113.10     0.74
   1001.30   150.80     0.44
    996.40   190.10     0.14
    991.60   228.80     0.04
    986.60   269.30     0.04
    981.50   310.90     0.14
    976.40   352.70     0.74
    971.10   396.50     0.74
    965.70   441.60     4.24
    960.10   488.90     4.04
    954.30   538.40     5.64
    948.20   590.80     5.14
    941.80   646.10     4.64
    935.20   703.40     4.04
    928.10   765.40     3.44
    920.50   832.10     2.84
    912.00   907.20     2.04
    902.20   994.30     1.24
    890.80  1096.50     0.24
    877.80  1214.40     0.04
    862.90  1351.70    -0.06
    846.10  1509.10    -0.46
    827.00  1691.70    -0.96

Looks too warm even for sleet, more like a freezing rain sounding providing the surface gets down below freezing.  That probably will happen for awhile in some locations to the north and west but even that looks marginal as the temp probably will barely be below freezing.

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GFS gives me 0.30", and it is over by like 7am tuesday morning

 

     The GFS does not want to give up on its solution for minimal precip here, but FWIW, I looked at the 21z SREF members, and roughly 2/3 of them support the NAM's wet solution.   That includes 4 of the 7 members initialized by the GFS.

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The GFS Op has consistently been north+east of its respective ensemble members, and the Euro Op has been consistently south+west of its respective ensemble members, but the Euro Op hasn't been as much of an outlier compared to the ensembles as the GFS Op has. I'm not going 100% with the Euro, but I would certainly weigh it more than the GFS. I'm not really relying on the GFS Op at all for this system at this point.

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     The GFS does not want to give up on its solution for minimal precip here, but FWIW, I looked at the 21z SREF members, and roughly 2/3 of them support the NAM's wet solution.   That includes 4 of the 7 members initialized by the GFS.

Most models are favoring wet along I95. Back this far west could miss out on some of the precip.

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Looks like the storm is trending drier. Coup for GFS? EDIT:Probably the EPS has modeled this the best so far. We might not get 0.2" like some of the GFS/GGEM runs were saying. But I don't see us getting the 2-3" of Rain NAM and several of the SREF members were showing. I think the 0.5" line will be somewhere between Manassas and Easton, not a big deal rain until East/NE of Philidelphia

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