Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro was really wet. The cutoff was thru our area but it was really wet. Cut and paste NAM precip equations.... eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM shows snow for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM shows snow for me? surface probably too warm, or if it does support snow, it's marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 surface probably too warm, or if it does support snow, it's marginalsurface is 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 surface is 32 It's a little warm...up high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hi-res NAM. Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 surface is 32 looking at the bufr data, I'm seeing about 33 for Dulles for the first few hours of the event. but the forecasted NAM profile is above freezing from roughly 880 mb down to the sfc, including about +5.5 C at 950 mb. I will note, though, that the layer from 980 mb down to the sfc is just barely above freezing. Forecasted profile for IAD at 09z Tuesday: PRES HGHT TMPC 1006.00 113.10 0.74 1001.30 150.80 0.44 996.40 190.10 0.14 991.60 228.80 0.04 986.60 269.30 0.04 981.50 310.90 0.14 976.40 352.70 0.74 971.10 396.50 0.74 965.70 441.60 4.24 960.10 488.90 4.04 954.30 538.40 5.64 948.20 590.80 5.14 941.80 646.10 4.64 935.20 703.40 4.04 928.10 765.40 3.44 920.50 832.10 2.84 912.00 907.20 2.04 902.20 994.30 1.24 890.80 1096.50 0.24 877.80 1214.40 0.04 862.90 1351.70 -0.06 846.10 1509.10 -0.46 827.00 1691.70 -0.96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's a little warm...up high +6°C flamethrower from the Atlantic at 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM shows snow for me? looking at the bufr data, I'm seeing about 33 for Dulles for the first few hours of the event. but the forecasted NAM profile is above freezing from roughly 880 mb down to the sfc, including about +5.5 C at 950 mb. I will note, though, that the layer from 980 mb down to the sfc is just barely above freezing. Forecasted profile for IAD at 09z Tuesday: PRES HGHT TMPC 1006.00 113.10 0.74 1001.30 150.80 0.44 996.40 190.10 0.14 991.60 228.80 0.04 986.60 269.30 0.04 981.50 310.90 0.14 976.40 352.70 0.74 971.10 396.50 0.74 965.70 441.60 4.24 960.10 488.90 4.04 954.30 538.40 5.64 948.20 590.80 5.14 941.80 646.10 4.64 935.20 703.40 4.04 928.10 765.40 3.44 920.50 832.10 2.84 912.00 907.20 2.04 902.20 994.30 1.24 890.80 1096.50 0.24 877.80 1214.40 0.04 862.90 1351.70 -0.06 846.10 1509.10 -0.46 827.00 1691.70 -0.96 Looks too warm even for sleet, more like a freezing rain sounding providing the surface gets down below freezing. That probably will happen for awhile in some locations to the north and west but even that looks marginal as the temp probably will barely be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 +6°C flamethrower from the Atlantic at 950mb thanks for bustin' JI's hot air balloon bubble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 thanks for bustin' JI's hot air balloon bubble Reality hurts around these parts. Bring on February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS gives me 0.30", and it is over by like 7am tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 H5 closed low stalls so someones going to get some crazy ULL totals. GFS has been putting this area in the Poconos or Northern NJ for the past several runs. NAM is probably off it's rocker (or on it's rocker since it's normally crazy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS gives me 0.30", and it is over by like 7am tuesday morning Worst model ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS gives me 0.30", and it is over by like 7am tuesday morning The GFS does not want to give up on its solution for minimal precip here, but FWIW, I looked at the 21z SREF members, and roughly 2/3 of them support the NAM's wet solution. That includes 4 of the 7 members initialized by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The GFS Op has consistently been north+east of its respective ensemble members, and the Euro Op has been consistently south+west of its respective ensemble members, but the Euro Op hasn't been as much of an outlier compared to the ensembles as the GFS Op has. I'm not going 100% with the Euro, but I would certainly weigh it more than the GFS. I'm not really relying on the GFS Op at all for this system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The GFS does not want to give up on its solution for minimal precip here, but FWIW, I looked at the 21z SREF members, and roughly 2/3 of them support the NAM's wet solution. That includes 4 of the 7 members initialized by the GFS. Most models are favoring wet along I95. Back this far west could miss out on some of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS gives me 0.30", and it is over by like 7am tuesday morning They need the upgrade, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 They need the upgrade, stat. Based off of what? It's not like we can compare them at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I hope the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Uhh.....Tony Pann really just showed the NAMs snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Chrushing baro. Where's the low? 38/18 is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Uhh.....Tony Pann really just showed the NAMs snow output. Just saw that too. What a gig some of these guys have. The network gives 2 minutes and he doesn't even show the futurecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Chrushing baro. Where's the low? 38/18 is interesting. the low is going to form off Hatteras late tomorrow..problem is high pressure is going to scoot to our east and low pressure will be to our NW...so it will be a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 the low is going to form off Hatteras late tomorrow..problem is high pressure is going to scoot to our east and low pressure will be to our NW...so it will be a cold rain Could have been a front end thump if storm formed 12-18 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 euro is really dry for us....very wet for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like the storm is trending drier. Coup for GFS? EDIT:Probably the EPS has modeled this the best so far. We might not get 0.2" like some of the GFS/GGEM runs were saying. But I don't see us getting the 2-3" of Rain NAM and several of the SREF members were showing. I think the 0.5" line will be somewhere between Manassas and Easton, not a big deal rain until East/NE of Philidelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Based off of what? It's not like we can compare them at the moment. Generally speaking, not just in regards to this event. Though 0z Euro gives me about same amount of precip that 0z GFS advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 cutoffs are way tricky with precip. Someone will have buckets while others see invisible rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 cutoffs are way tricky with precip. Someone will have buckets while others see invisible rain 00z euro cutoff was pretty severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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