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Dec 9-10 threat


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EURO shows ~1.75" of rain beginning early Tuesday and ending Wednesday evening, temperature falling from low 40s to upper 30s.  Light snow Thursday night with temperatures in mid/lower 30s (0.13" water equivalent). … for BWI

 

Forecast similar for DCA except 1.00" inch of rain with temperatures falling very slowly from near 40 to mid/upper 30s. Folllowed by light snow Thu night

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It sure would go against what usually happens when you have the 500h low pass to your north.  I'm sure not ready to write any article or even Facebook entry about Thursday night. 

Luckily the 500mb low passes to our north, then to our east, then to our south, then to our west, then to our north...

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No, but I think at this point (even though climo doesn't favor it really) many folks are looking for frozen or nothing at all. Like Ian, I have no problem expressing my displeasure for cold rain. 55 and sun pls ;)

 

All that said, I like how a number of recent storms have trended wetter. I hope that continues through our prime period. 

I also like how, even in a crappy pattern, we are getting coastals. Of course if we get our -AO and -NAO with a +PNA in a couple weeks, suppressed lows with snow in in SVA and NC is probably what we will get ;)

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LOL,  It has bounced around and does stall,   maybe I should be more bullish so I'd get more hits. 

Stay just the way you are, Wes.  I think our odds of accumulation from this are pretty darn low.  Odds of a chilly, dreary week are really good. 

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Based on something ORH_Wxman posted back for the pre-Turkey storm, when the NAM shows that sort of precip (2-4"), you can basically divide it by 2.  When the NAM shows 1-2", it's usually about 50% too high.  When it shows less than 1", it's more or less in the ballpark. 

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Based on something ORH_Wxman posted back for the pre-Turkey storm, when the NAM shows that sort of precip (2-4"), you can basically divide it by 2.  When the NAM shows 1-2", it's usually about 50% too high.  When it shows less than 1", it's more or less in the ballpark. 

aren't they the same (dividing 2-4" by 2 and 1-2" 50% too high)?....just go with half when it's 1-4"

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aren't they the same (dividing 2-4" by 2 and 1-2" 50% too high)?....just go with half when it's 1-4"

No, maybe I didn't describe it clearly.

 

When the NAM shows 2-4", it shows 200% of the actual amount often.

When the NAM shows 1-2", it shows 150% of the actual amount often. 

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