Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Bit of a warm seclusion feature in the mid levels. Grunt-worthy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Man, this low doesn't want to move out of CNE on the Euro. Looks like the area gets a little snow on Tues and Wednesday as the low occludes and just sits and spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Goodnight. I will be tracking this bad boy over the weekend. Yup. This storm is worthy of following through the weekend. Wonder if we get a storm name from the weather channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 And when the cold and "better pattern" comes..watch how de will have to pray to have some kind of storm.. Cold and dry will be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What a crazy Euro run once again. The low occluded further south again. The storm lasts from hour 96-150 on this run. The whole area gets a lot of rain. As the low moves northeast and just sits and spins, the Euro throws back light snow for the majority of the area for a while as the cold air comes in. I'm ready to track this all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 And when the cold and "better pattern" comes..watch how de will have to pray to have some kind of storm.. Cold and dry will be.. Unlikely in an El Nino...possible, you can get suppression sometimes which occurred for a time in 87-88, 02-03, and 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Unlikely in an El Nino...possible, you can get suppression sometimes which occurred for a time in 87-88, 02-03, and 09-10. I don't see supression depression happening anytime soon, not unless the AO goes -3 + same with NAO. I do believe AO can do that in Jan Feb, once the niño pattern fully kicks in. but NAO may remain largely positive until then. The strong -QBO plus atmospheric lag for last year will keep NAO + now for most or all of December IMHO. Jan feb look more conductive for -NAO as strong -QBO in Dec usually means +NAO. If we get -NAO with strong -AO in Jan Feb then we can see suppression for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 We need the new GFS track, Euro stalling and phasing than we got a major snowstorm on our hands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 We need the new GFS track, Euro stalling and phasing than we got a major snowstorm on our hands!Huge model runs today. Biggest of this young weekend. Time to send emails to the Europeans, Canadians & English that the big apple needs big snows and their Computer model runs today are critical to us.Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Glad i wont be tracking this storm. Unless wholesale failure occurs on the EURO and it goes BM, closes off and stalls it all rain for me. Looking forward to the pattern change mid month. These storms IMO are just annoying with cold rain/wind with phantom wrararound snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Glad i wont be tracking this storm. Unless wholesale failure occurs on the EURO and it goes BM, closes off and stalls it all rain for me. Looking forward to the pattern change mid month. These storms IMO are just annoying with cold rain/wind with phantom wrararound snows Dude it is mid month.... Get some coffee in you already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Glad i wont be tracking this storm. Unless wholesale failure occurs on the EURO and it goes BM, closes off and stalls it all rain for me. Looking forward to the pattern change mid month. These storms IMO are just annoying with cold rain/wind with phantom wrararound snows But you're in this thread.........So, you are......Personally, I maintain that any snow out here is bonus before Christmas. Therefore, a huge rainer doesn't bother me much at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Glad i wont be tracking this storm.umm u already are️ is coming think positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 These lower latitude +EPO blocks are notorious for lows cutting off to our SW and very little cold air around. When the blocking sets up across Southern Canada to Newfoundland rainy coastal storms are the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 These lower latitude +EPO blocks are notorious for lows cutting off to our SW and very little cold air around. When the blocking sets up across Southern Canada to Newfoundland rainy coastal storms are the norm. ecmwf_z500a_nhem_5.png as long as we can get a winter storm. Our column looks cold. Also have you noticed that NAM 6z and GFS 6z have a benchmark track.Edit: all we need is a stronger low but we don't want it tucked in like the Euro, ukmet, and cmc are depicting the system. Otherwise we'll be on the way warmer sector. We already start kinda warm but if enough instability occurs, the dynamics of the LP will make it's own cold air resulting snow. This would be ideal if the storm begins during nighttime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 as long as we can get a winter storm. Our column looks cold. Also have you noticed that NAM 6z and GFS 6z have a benchmark track. Edit: all we need is a stronger low but we don't want it tuck in otherwise we'll be on the way warmer sector. We already start kinda warm but if enough instability occurs, the dynamics will make it's cold air resulting snow especially if this occurs at night. Why are you even looking at the GFS when it has been the slowest model to catch on to the storm? Don't you see the pattern here like last week where the coldest solutions are the furthest out in time and we get warmer as we get closer. You have to look more at the lousy teleconnection pattern first and see how this favors a wet and rather than white storm. We would have saved a lot of disappointment last week if we just followed the teleconnections rather than the unrealistic cold solutions that got warmer as the storm moved in. That's why pattern recognition is more important than a few unrealistic model runs that get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Why are you even looking at the GFS when it has been the slowest model to catch on to the storm? Don't you see the pattern here like last week where the coldest solutions are the furthest out in time and we get warmer as we get closer. You have to look more at the lousy teleconnection pattern first and see how this favors a wet and rather than white storm. We would have saved a lot of disappointment last week if we just followed the teleconnections rather than the unrealistic cold solutions that got warmer as the storm moved in. yeah but you must admit there's still a slight chance you're going to get a snowstorm on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 yeah but you must admit there's still a slight chance you're going to get a snowstorm on Tuesday. Not even a slight chance of a snowstorm along the coast Tuesday with those thermal profiles. Even the colder Euro solutions a few days ago had less than an inch in NYC. Things have come further west since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Not even a slight chance of a snowstorm along the coast Tuesday with those thermal profiles.your most likely right but I'm still watching it cause I have to. See you at the 12z run buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Not even a slight chance of a snowstorm along the coast Tuesday with those thermal profiles. Even the colder Euro solutions a few days ago had less than an inch in NYC. Things have come further west since then. Indeed. For the most part, at this point in time, even where I'm located, the bulk of the event would be in the liquid form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 yeah but you must admit there's still a slight chance you're going to get a snowstorm on Tuesday. Yeah, there's a slight chance the world will end Tuesday also. You are currently near 50 degrees while an hour away from you I am at 35. You live next to a WARM ocean in December. All the wish casting in the world won't change that. If you want a legit chance of a real snow this time of year, you need to move. There's a slight chance you will see some backside, wrap around, decaying crud snow on Wednesday as this thing limps away.....get over it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 There are people on this forum who are delusional enough to believe they could get a snowstorm in Miami if a wave formed along an arctic front that slipped South of the Keys. They just have to hope and pray for it to be so. For all you people still living with mommy, you have been spoiled during the last several years with snow amounts that are abnormally robust. If you go back in the 50 years I have been alive, the facts are that more potential snowstorms in NYC fail to materialize then not. There are so many setups where you have to thread a needle with storm track, where 50-100 mile differences run the gammet of snow/rain/nothing. Thats before you factor in issues like enough cold air available, placements of highs, sneaky warm layers, dew point supression etc. If you get a 6 inch snofall in NYC, it basically represents 1/4 of your historical seasonal normal. If you just keep that in mind, everyone can keep this forum intelligent and readable by only hyping situations that appear to have all the parameters in place for a big event, not because you love snow and wish and pray for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Watching the track of the center of low pressure over the Western Atlantic throughout the model runs is one of the more bizarre things I have seen. Totally weird. Loop it here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Watching the track of the center of low pressure over the Western Atlantic throughout the model runs is one of the more bizarre things I have seen. Totally weird. Loop it here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_12z/etaloop.html this is going to cause significant beach erosion in certain coastal locations and also coastal flooding - plus the storm is probably going to become blocked under that banana high setting up to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 this is going to cause significant beach erosion in certain coastal locations and also coastal flooding Quasi 92 ish . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Quasi 92 ish . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor%27easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z GGEM shifted east. Now the low goes east of LI. Still all rain for the majority of the northeast except for far interior areas.http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z GGEM shifted east. Now the low goes east of LI. Still all rain for the majority of the northeast except for far interior areas.http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The CMC looks much faster with the low on Tuesday morning, as compared to its 00z run. Still an irredeemable torch, despite the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor%27easter The article says 14 inches in Jersey...but up towards High Point...I think it was closer to two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.