IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z GGEM is a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z GGEM is a nuke Goes over eastern LI http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 nuclear rain storm for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z GGEM is a nukeAwesome for the Poconos and Catskills I guess. A low over Long Island does nothing for 98 percent of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 UKMET is over Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's time to get over the fact it won't be snowing but still enjoy the storm for what it is. I'm thrilled the pattern is so active right now. If you have greater storminess along with more favorable climo then snow will become inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The UKET has the low over NJ/philly at hour 96 and fast forward 24 hours at 120, its in the same area just a bit west. Jeez thats crazy stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The UKET has the low over NJ/philly at hour 96 and fast forward 24 hours at 120, its in the same area just a bit west. Jeez thats crazy stall. Using meteocentre maps its hard to know whether or not UKMET turns everyone over by 120... I would assume it would as long as it still has precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Using meteocentre maps its hard to know whether or not UKMET turns everyone over by 120... I would assume it would as long as it still has precip? Hard to tell bro, what I am now confident is someone, don't know the exact location yet, (not any of the cities though) will see 2-3 feet from this storm. I'm thinking upstate NH and places with higher elevation. Looks to just sit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's time to get over the fact it won't be snowing but still enjoy the storm for what it is. I'm thrilled the pattern is so active right now. If you have greater storminess along with more favorable climo then snow will become inevitable. GFS has winter getting going around the 20th The UKET has the low over NJ/philly at hour 96 and fast forward 24 hours at 120, its in the same area just a bit west. Jeez thats crazy stall. I'm looking forward to the Euro. I'm not saying that 2/26/10 is going to happen here but I remember the models struggling with the placement of the low. I remember them having them retrogading over NNE then over Philly, over NYC and finally east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I said the GGEM was a nuke, I didn't mention anything about snow. It's actually less impressive overall than 12z in terms of both front end potential snow, ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Impossible to know at this range, could still have a 100-150 mile shift at 3-4 days, also no clue when this is going to occlude and that's everything to who may see back end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS has winter getting going around the 20th I'm looking forward to the Euro. I'm not saying that 2/26/10 is going to happen here but I remember the models struggling with the placement of the low. I remember them having them retrogading over NNE then over Philly, over NYC and finally east of LI. As it stands right now, I do see this retrograding, and the exact placement of the LOW is going to be tough to call even a day out. This is going to be a nice looking storm though, going back to the thanksgiving eve storm it was a straight feed from the gulf up the coast, and this storm is supposed to be stronger, so it will definitely be moisture loaded. All comes down to the placement, how strong the storm is, and will it pull down cold air for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's the kind of situation that I might start paying attention if I was still living in central PA, but late developing miller B lows are usually bad southwest of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Can we keep all of the garbage storm cancel wait till Christmas posts in either the December or banter threads where they belong? No need to troll a storm thread just because one model shows rain for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The 00z GGEM is indeed warmer. Front end dump is mostly confined to NY State this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The 00z GGEM is indeed warmer. Front end dump is mostly confined to NY State this run. 001.png Doesn't bomb out until its too late, doesn't retrograde in UKMET/Euro fasion either. Stalls up in Maine instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's time to get over the fact it won't be snowing but still enjoy the storm for what it is. I'm thrilled the pattern is so active right now. If you have greater storminess along with more favorable climo then snow will become inevitable. I'll pass on cold rain thanks. If the low is tucked in close to LI even the surfer in me will pass as winds will be onshore. Bench mark is for snow and waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Euro will be interesting of course but this seems to be a late developing low that crashes up the CT river valley. From Monticello to Mt. Pocono northwest it might be a big slam of snow but I don't see the interest southeast of there. The pattern is just wrong for anywhere near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Can't believe people are calling this "nuke bomb" a rainstorm already. Many model runs still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Cant wait for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Can't believe people are calling this "nuke bomb" a rainstorm already. Many model runs still to go. Easy for us to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Low goes right over NYC on the Euro. Wow, a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z ECMWF tracks from ACY to Western Long Island. Closes off a bit sooner. Stalls and occludes south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Get your row boat. And go to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Further North and weaker, CCB into Upstate NY, mostly dry slot here by the time the cold air arrives. Looks to be 1-2" of rain. The 2-3" of QPF the maps show are including over an inch for the next 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Get your row boat. And go to sleep. Goodnight. I will be tracking this bad boy over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 925mb winds look impressive for a time on Tuesday. Other than that, rather meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Get your row boat. And go to sleep. 2" of rain is hardly row boat worthy, especially with the reservoirs still below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 2" of rain is hardly row boat worthy, especially with the reservoirs still below normal .Just not a shovel. I'm glad 2 plus gets into the catskills . They could use the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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