Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You cannot use an ensemble mean in this situation because there is way too much variance between solutions. A mean will bring you an ideal situation with a broad MSLP near the benchmark and a cold 850mb temperature. But the individual solutions are more volatile. When you average out a 51 member ensemble, you're looking for consistency in track and intensity...not specifics. There are many members over LI and New England. There some strong eastern outliers appear to be causing further east slp on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Pretty cool to see the mid atlantic get in on this snow wise and the entire evolution is interesting and exciting for sure. Who doesn't love a nice storm. I wonder how much rain we'll pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 18z GFS was an improvement but it still develops the low too far East. Takes a benchmark track and you have to be in SNE or the Twin forks to get in on appreciable precipitation. H5 low evenutally closes off near Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 There are many members over LI and New England. There some strong eastern outliers appear to be causing further east slp on the mean. Yeah, precisely what I was talking about. You have to look at individual members if you want to talk about specifics. The mean is just an easy way out if you're going to talk specifics regarding it. Prime example was the GEFS prior to the early February storm in 2010 that brought SNJ 9 trillion inches. Everyone kept referencing the mean QPF, which brought 0.75" liquid to EWR. When you looked at the individuals, two of them had 2"+ QPF in NYC and the rest had almost nothing. This is the type of analysis necessary when referencing ensembles for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah, precisely what I was talking about. You have to look at individual members if you want to talk about specifics. The mean is just an easy way out if you're going to talk specifics regarding it. Prime example was the GEFS prior to the early February storm in 2010 that brought SNJ 9 trillion inches. Everyone kept referencing the mean QPF, which brought 0.75" liquid to EWR. When you looked at the individuals, two of them had 2"+ QPF in NYC and the rest had almost nothing. This is the type of analysis necessary when referencing ensembles for specifics. Bingo. The median QPF in these situations referenced would have been superior. I remember that early Feb 2010 debacle (heartbreak for NYC weens like me) and the typical hoopla around the SREF mean and whatnot. Perhaps we could quantify the median longitude at which the storm crosses a given latitude (40 N?) and use that. But yeah, the mean is pretty meaningless (no pun intended, though it makes for a pretty sweet pun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Bingo. The median QPF in these situations referenced would have been superior. I remember that early Feb 2010 debacle (heartbreak for NYC weens like me) and the typical hoopla around the SREF mean and whatnot. Perhaps we could quantify the median longitude at which the storm crosses a given latitude (40 N?) and use that. But yeah, the mean is pretty meaningless (no pun intended, though it makes for a pretty sweet pun). And we were so close to our first 40" calendar month. 10 Top Snowiest Months 36.9 Feb 201036.0 Jan 201130.5 Mar 189629.6 Dec 1947 29.0 Feb 2014 27.9 Feb 193427.4 Jan 192527.0 Dec 187226.9 Feb 200626.4 Feb 199426.3 Feb 1926 26.1 Feb 2003 & Jan 199625.5 Mar 1916 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And we were so close to our first 40" calendar month. 10 Top Snowiest Months 36.9 Feb 201036.0 Jan 201130.5 Mar 189629.6 Dec 194727.9 Feb 193427.4 Jan 192527.0 Dec 187226.9 Feb 200626.4 Feb 199426.3 Feb 1926 26.1 Feb 2003 & Jan 199625.5 Mar 1916 Indeed. You stats devotees care more about that than I, I only remember the heartache and hangover I had the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Indeed. You stats devotees care more about that than I, I only remember the heartache and hangover I had the next morning. is the 2010 storm , that beautiful 27 incher ( the all time for CPK) ? Near JFK I NEVER EVER saw a snowfall rate like that for hours: 3-5 inches EASILY for 3-4 hours around 4am- 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 is the 2010 storm , that beautiful 27 incher ( the all time for CPK) ? Near JFK I NEVER EVER saw a snowfall rate like that for hours: 3-5 inches EASILY for 3-4 hours around 4am- 8am last time ive seen prolific snowfall rates and with thunder was 12/25/02. Im envious when NYC and mt. earthlight seem to get the best forcing and lifting while im in subsidence. its a punch to the gut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 last time ive seen prolific snowfall rates and with thunder was 12/25/02. Im envious when NYC and mt. earthlight seem to get the best forcing and lifting while im in subsidence. its a punch to the gut! Too bad we couldn't have tweaked the laws of physics a bit for that 13 inch special last summer in Islip to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 last time ive seen prolific snowfall rates and with thunder was 12/25/02. Im envious when NYC and mt. earthlight seem to get the best forcing and lifting while im in subsidence. its a punch to the gut! Before it went to rain last febs super morning dump had 3+ rates as did January 11 late night super dump. The later had amazing thunder sleet with 60mph gusts in long beach. As far as putting it all to ether for thunder snow yeah it's been a while on the island. I remember it a couple times in the 90s not sure of the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Too bad we couldn't have tweaked the laws of physics a bit for that 13 inch special last summer in Islip to be all snow. could you imagine that. it would be a PDII on steroids! funny thing is I missed that event too. I was down in AC for my birthday so I missed noah's flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Before it went to rain last febs super morning dump had 3+ rates as did January 11 late night super dump. The later had amazing thunder sleet with 60mph gusts in long beach. As far as putting it all to ether for thunder snow yeah it's been a while on the island. I remember it a couple times in the 90s not sure of the dates. the dump during February's snowstorm I wasn't home for. I was in selden and missed the heavy rates and I was pissed! im always either away or the best dynamics are around me but not over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 last time ive seen prolific snowfall rates and with thunder was 12/25/02. Im envious when NYC and mt. earthlight seem to get the best forcing and lifting while im in subsidence. its a punch to the gut! I think you are overrating those two spots just a bit...neither Union County NJ nor Manhattan Island are what you would call "good" snow locations by any stretch of the imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think you are overrating those two spots just a bit...neither Union County NJ nor Manhattan Island are what you would call "good" snow locations by any stretch of the imagination. Last 14 years they had about 130 more inches of snow out on Long Island than in NYC... Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 last time ive seen prolific snowfall rates and with thunder was 12/25/02. Im envious when NYC and mt. earthlight seem to get the best forcing and lifting while im in subsidence. its a punch to the gut! How about the Feb. 2006 storm? Remember thunder but did not see lightning. Also going back to a January snowfall in the early 80's there were some daytime flashes and sharp raps of thunder that sent me and fellow workers rushing to the windows to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 How about the Feb. 2006 storm? Remember thunder but did not see lightning. Also going back to a January snowfall in the early 80's there were some daytime flashes and sharp raps of thunder that sent me and fellow workers rushing to the windows to watch. nope 06' was a NYC storm that delivered the NYC 24 hr snowfall record. I got around 15" from that was in subsidence with occasional heavier bursts. I remember the backlash was said to produce an additional 4-6" for me and I got a whopping 1.5" instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think you are overrating those two spots just a bit...neither Union County NJ nor Manhattan Island are what you would call "good" snow locations by any stretch of the imagination. no they generally aren't but they've jackpotted a lot more since 03' than my current location on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Upton AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY. EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Upton I agree with that, certainly there is a lot of variances that can change the overall outcome between now and zero hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 no they generally aren't but they've jackpotted a lot more since 03' than my current location on LI. You must be in a very bad spot for snow then. Did you look at the list I posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You must be in a very bad spot for snow then. Did you look at the list I posted? not just for snow. I am a convective graveyard. many know me around here and how its torture year round back on topic though, this storm is gonna be fun to track regardless and is gonna be a powerhouse. looking forward to seeing some prolific snowfall totals from up north in NE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You must be in a very bad spot for snow then. Did you look at the list I posted? It's called SSP or South Shore Problems He's to far west for those central Suffolk specials too like feb 13 and dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The upper level trough to the east lifts out too quickly, so the big high pressure to our north moves too far east too quickly. In addition, the digging trough to our west digs just slightly too far west, so I would think this storm will hug the coast giving the NYC metro a ton of rain and wind. Behind the storm NYC may see a few wet snow showers, This is my current thinking on this storm at this time, I wish it would be snow it would of been nice for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, I wouldn't expect more than some flurries or a snow shower near the coast as the storm exits-surface air is too warm, horrible high pressure spot and nothing to stop a coast hugger. Could be a few inches or more well northwest. Another rinse/repeat generally from the Thanksgiving Eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The upper level trough to the east lifts out too quickly, so the big high pressure to our north moves too far east too quickly. In addition, the digging trough to our west digs just slightly too far west, so I would think this storm will hug the coast giving the NYC metro a ton of rain and wind. Behind the storm NYC may see a few wet snow showers, This is my current thinking on this storm at this time, I wish it would be snow it would of been nice for the holidays. pretty much agree although i am intrigued for a good storm regardless in spite of the snow potential being low at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS? Its wettest run so far but not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, I wouldn't expect more than some flurries or a snow shower near the coast as the storm exits-surface air is too warm, horrible high pressure spot and nothing to stop a coast hugger. Could be a few inches or more well northwest. Another rinse/repeat generally from the Thanksgiving Eve storm. Shades of 07/08. NNE looks to cash in big time again. With our Nw suburbs being right on the line between feast and famine. I'm going to try and make it up to Vermont next weekend as conditions should be great as the torch is just beginning up there. Nothing like ridding on a low 30s day with wall to wall snow! At least the mountains are scoring this winter. 4 hours and it's a great great season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Shades of 07/08. NNE looks to cash in big time again. With our Nw suburbs being right on the line between feast and famine. I'm going to try and make it up to Vermont next weekend as conditions should be great as the torch is just beginning up there. Nothing like ridding on a low 30s day with wall to wall snow! At least the mountains are scoring this winter. 4 hours and it's a great great season so far There are just fewer cards in our deck in the winter which make it possible to have heavy snow. Even my alma mater PSU has some snow events and an ice event under its belt. Hopefully the colder pattern late this month works out and we can have a snow event down here. In the meantime enjoy Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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