PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 PB, lows always weaken after they become vertically stacked and fill. The key is getting the occlusion to occur in a favorable position. I just meant that run verbatim .If you go from Islip to Trenton and you slot at 40 . Hard to see anything but showery type stuff swinging through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting look here, only thing screwing up accumulation is the surface. Got this from another site.By hour 120 it's pretty much over for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I just don't see CCB in the offing here . As the system retrogrades from Islip 988 to Trenton 993 it weakens .The best lifting is through New England at this time . What you are seeing on the Euro in EPA is upsloping and as the whole system comes back E off AC that precip downslopes and dries out . The BL is close to 40 and you barely cool the mid levels . Dynamic cooling is not present here which we usually see in CCB set ups. The system aloft is weakening I don't see the evolution here going back to snow based on that run . Just my take . I don't agree. You can't upslope precip in E PA with NW winds at the surface and northerly winds at 850mb. The precip doesn't make it further east because we are in a mid-level dry-slot from the low occluding too far west. That precip is from the CCB, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CCB was definitely there, it was just too far west because the 500mb low closed off a bit too far NW and the surface low occluded too far west. If that stuff happens further east, we get in the CCB. That's still asking for a lot, of course, but it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I don't agree. You can't upslope precip in E PA with NW winds at the surface and northerly winds at 850mb. The precip doesn't make it further east because we are in a mid-level dry-slot from the low occluding too far west. That precip is from the CCB, IMO. I should have been more clear . I was talking the track verbatim . Islip to Trenton slot us . Then what`s left dries out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I should have been more clear . I was talking the track verbatim . Islip to Trenton slot us . Then what`s left dries out Yeah, that I agree with. But the CCB is shown in E PA and parts of the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting look here, only thing screwing up accumulation is the surface. Got this from another site. Yeah, no 50/50 low to hold the low level cold in place wit the 1040 HP heading OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean closes off northeast of the OP. Surface low tracks just outside the benchmark. Some fairly wet panels in there, and some decent spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah, that I agree with. But the CCB is shown in E PA and parts of the Mid Atlantic.Doug the way I looked at was at 114 988 going into Islip the best lifting is into NEPA and SENY. Then as it turns SE it drags the precip with it weakening at 114 heading into SEPA .( and looking like CCB )I didn`t look at it as CCB but as drying out precip coming SE as it headed S then Dries as it came E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CCB was definitely there, it was just too far west because the 500mb low closed off a bit too far NW and the surface low occluded too far west. If that stuff happens further east, we get in the CCB. That's still asking for a lot, of course, but it's not impossible. I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I might also add that this deliberation, while intriguing, is likely to be academic as the exact placement of these features wobble around over the next few days. That said, having the Euro with such a strong retro low signal makes me take that idea more seriously ... given that it has a history of getting the evolution of such features correct at large lead times. I'm excited to have a big QPF maker to track and I'm comfortable letting the chips (the CCB) fall where they may. It probably won't be my backyard, but it's not impossible. Also, the mountains in NNE look to be in upslope heaven for several days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I might also add that this deliberation, while intriguing, is likely to be academic as the exact placement of these features wobble around over the next few days. That said, having the Euro with such a strong retro low signal makes me take that idea more seriously ... given that it has a history of getting the evolution of such features correct at large lead times. I'm excited to have a big QPF maker to track and I'm comfortable letting the chips (the CCB) fall where they may. It probably won't be my backyard, but it's not impossible. Also, the mountains in NNE look to be in upslope heaven for several days! Agreed as im expecting nothing with this storm as well. However, some promising changes on the models the past couple days regarding a more favorable pattern for cold and snow on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z JMA looks like the ECMWF with the closed 500mb low sitting near the NJ coast, maybe a tick East. About 1" of this liquid falls this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 So the JMA sees it, the KMA, and the Australian...how did we the US get stuck with the worst model in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I might also add that this deliberation, while intriguing, is likely to be academic as the exact placement of these features wobble around over the next few days. That said, having the Euro with such a strong retro low signal makes me take that idea more seriously ... given that it has a history of getting the evolution of such features correct at large lead times. I'm excited to have a big QPF maker to track and I'm comfortable letting the chips (the CCB) fall where they may. It probably won't be my backyard, but it's not impossible. Also, the mountains in NNE look to be in upslope heaven for several days! Specifically what days are you referring to? I am currently up in Lake Placid until Tuesday doing some skiing at whiteface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agreed as im expecting nothing with this storm as well. However, some promising changes on the models the past couple days regarding a more favorable pattern for cold and snow on the ECits too early to call anything off. It's literally 4 days away. That track is not set in stone but it's intensity is becoming more clear. Also the GFS is just a bad model IMO. It seems to me that the GFS is much better with northern stream systems than of southern stream setups and phasing. Id say by Sunday 12z runs we can conclude the final outcome for now we can only speculate this would be a rainstorm for your backyard and mine in the Bronx. I wonder what the Euro ensembles show if they tick east that'll be a very good sign. I still think last night's euro run is more possible that what the euro showed this afternoon. What is bringing the low on top of Atlantic city? I see this going right through the twin forks and not really making that loop similar to superstorm Sandy. Still plenty of time for u in Long Island. You would need a good 150 miles east of where the Euro 12z depicted it to happen, I need half of that for me to see at least some snow. Fun to track, many sleepless nights coming for you and I but it's okay because this is our passion and no one can take that away from us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Specifically what days are you referring to? I am currently up in Lake Placid until Tuesday doing some skiing at whiteface.Whiteface isn't a particularly favored place for upslope snow. Head over to Stowe or Jay Peak and you can thank me by posting pictures of face shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 FWIW the Euro control run looks almost identical to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 So the JMA sees it, the KMA, and the Australian...how did we the US get stuck with the worst model in the world? The NAM sees it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 So the JMA sees it, the KMA, and the Australian...how did we the US get stuck with the worst model in the world? Good question, it's too bad that we don't have the new GFS running to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The NAM sees it too. Yeah, I was about to post this, the 18z NAM is handling the northern stream like the Euro. The GFS is really on an island all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The NOGAPS does too, its 996mlb off Boston and is more NRN STREAM dominant and GFS like but its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 For those that wanted, 12z GGEM snow accumulations. Also has a good amount of IP/ZR in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and east. And a lot dryer, just around 1" liquid. It doesn't have the retrograding low. It actually looks Goofus esque. The mean is almost always East of the OP in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and east.how much of an east move is it Ant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 how much of an east move is it Ant?Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Benchmarkgreat sign! although not set in stone i think a blend of euro 00z run and 12z run is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Oh yea in a CCB wraparound it is intense but VERY rare for me as the last time i experienced it was 12/25/02, hence why i pretty much put zero hope into it during any EC snow storm For educational purposes: CCB=Cold Conveyor Belt. Wrap around snows occur with wind shift to northwest and colder air filtering with coastal low tracking northeast past your area. http://apollo.lsc.vs...d_conveyor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and east. You cannot use an ensemble mean in this situation because there is way too much variance between solutions. A mean will bring you an ideal situation with a broad MSLP near the benchmark and a cold 850mb temperature. But the individual solutions are more volatile. When you average out a 51 member ensemble, you're looking for consistency in track and intensity...not specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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