PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Where is the CCB here E PA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agreed just get the track further east, and we'll be underneath the CCB: That 930 MB bomb over the NATL appears to be slowing down the flow so the CCB is displaced too far SW this run. Very impressive to see something this low in the Atlantic only a month after the record 924 mb Bering Sea storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Where is the CCB here You have to look at 700mb (bottom left panel). The RH field shows you that the CCB is sitting over Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic, oriented from northwest to southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The only place that the wrap around snows really miss is Long Island, everyone else does great.Wraparound snows for LI work if they're is a setup like 12/25/02. Other than that, banking wraparound snows on LI during any coastal storm in the winter months will 99% of the time end in dissapointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You have to look at 700mb (bottom left panel). The RH field shows you that the CCB is sitting over Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic, oriented from northwest to southeast. Yeah we're slotted pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You have to look at 700mb (bottom left panel). The RH field shows you that the CCB is sitting over Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic, oriented from northwest to southeast. Ok, CCB, I know what it means in terms of where the precip could be, but what does it actually stand for CCB? Still learning. And would the CCB in this case be snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Regardless, the further SE we can get the northern stream to go, the better. Comparing this run to last night's, the trough was deeper but also moving east quicker due to a little vort running into the ridge out west... so H5 didn't close off immediately -- it kept going SE. Keep that trend going and we could be on the correct side of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 E PA . Eventually, they get NJ good first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 As John said, it wouldn't really be wraparound, it would be a CCB on the SW side of the storm. That's a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Sorry but if you think you're gonna get a snowstorm in NYC with this set-up and storm, you are going to be terribly dissapointed. Could you see a few flakes at some point - of course - but this is not anywhere close to what you need for accumulating snows in and around NYC In the same way that you can toss out an idea based on the setup being poor, you have to account for the other side of extremes which is the fact that the evolution depicted on the Euro can, in fact happen. While not likely, the pattern could slow down just enough (two anomalous troughs in the North Atlantic and Eastern Canada) to allow for a phase which would bring a true northern stream disturbance into the trough. A retrograding surface low would bring snows in the cold conveyor belt to its southwest in that situation. While unlikely, you can't say it's "not close". Because the evolution aloft, as depicted by Euro, is actually textbook and the definition of "close" to showing a lot of snow even to the coastal plain on the SW side of an occluding surface low. Again, I don't think it's likely. But you have to account for and note the potential extremes on both ends when forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wraparound snows for LI work if they're is a setup like 12/25/02. Other than that, banking wraparound snows on LI during any coastal storm in the winter months will 99% of the time end in dissapointment It's not wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ok, CCB, I know what it means in terms of where the precip could be, but what does it actually stand for CCB? Still learning. And would the CCB in this case be snow or rain. Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 As John said, it wouldn't really be wraparound, it would be a CCB on the SW side of the storm. That's a big difference. Yes, and they are oftentimes mistakenly deemed synonymous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ok, CCB, I know what it means in terms of where the precip could be, but what does it actually stand for CCB? Still learning. And would the CCB in this case be snow or rain. CCB stands for cold conveyor belt. Here's a great basic presentation on their evolution: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/Conveyor_Belts.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wraparound snows for LI work if they're is a setup like 12/25/02. Other than that, banking wraparound snows on LI during any coastal storm in the winter months will 99% of the time end in dissapointment Really anywhere short of NW NJ/SENY and New England, it is very tough to get wraparound snows. They usually are placed inland and pull up NE, missing the coastal areas in and anywhere around I-95. When we do get them though it really adds another dimension to the storm and is awesome. Crashing temps and powdery heavy snow.....love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ok, CCB, I know what it means in terms of where the precip could be, but what does it actually stand for CCB? Still learning. And would the CCB in this case be snow or rain. CCB stands for cold conveyer belt and it would be an area where the greatest forcing/lift would be. This case it would be heavy snow, its a classic signature on many of our large EC snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The high res Euro has >4.0" of water equivlent falling in the next 120 hours in NE NJ, very impressive for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Eventually, they get NJ good first. This isn't your fault, but the high resolution (0.125 degree) Euro shows that the cold conveyor forms as the low retrogrades to the west. The MSLP goes from the North Shore of Long Island to Trenton. That puts NYC in a bad spot for the cold conveyor belt... in fact it puts a mid level dryslot over much of New Jersey and Long Island. The best frontogenic forcing in that situation will develop where the Euro has it, over Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic. Edit: I changed this post because I didn't see that the thermal profile is actually a bit cooler at 114 hour. I thought most of that was rain over Northwestern NJ when in fact some of it is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You do know that you can get views that don't cover half the earth's surface, right? And ones that are far more granular... DS I like the simple and true form The big picture outlooks from the best of the best at the OPC, give us the full story -imho- Why do I need to go elsewhere ? Please link us to your choice of images thanks tommy e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Really anywhere short of NW NJ/SENY and New England, it is very tough to get wraparound snows. They usually are placed inland and pull up NE, missing the coastal areas in and anywhere around I-95. When we do get them though it really adds another dimension to the storm and is awesome. Crashing temps and powdery heavy snow.....love it!Oh yea in a CCB wraparound it is intense but VERY rare for me as the last time i experienced it was 12/25/02, hence why i pretty much put zero hope into it during any EC snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 In the same way that you can toss out an idea based on the setup being poor, you have to account for the other side of extremes which is the fact that the evolution depicted on the Euro can, in fact happen. While not likely, the pattern could slow down just enough (two anomalous troughs in the North Atlantic and Eastern Canada) to allow for a phase which would bring a true northern stream disturbance into the trough. A retrograding surface low would bring snows in the cold conveyor belt to its southwest in that situation. While unlikely, you can't say it's "not close". Because the evolution aloft, as depicted by Euro, is actually textbook and the definition of "close" to showing a lot of snow even to the coastal plain on the SW side of an occluding surface low. Again, I don't think it's likely. But you have to account for and note the potential extremes on both ends when forecasting. Totally fair point and my apologies for speaking in such certain terms. IMO this is about the best case scenario for much of the area, and even in this depiction, I don't think it quite gets us there. As I do believe this is the most ideal depiction, I also don't believe we get this verbatim day of the storm. So anything less ideal than what we see being shown, doesnt bode well for a frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Oh yea in a CCB wraparound it is intense but VERY rare for me as the last time i experienced it was 12/25/02, hence why i pretty much put zero hope into it during any EC snow storm CCB and wraparound are not the same thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Thanks for the clarification on CCB guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 CCB stands for cold conveyor belt. Here's a great basic presentation on their evolution: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/Conveyor_Belts.pdf The conveyor belt model confuses me to no end, even after reading multiple papers and watching a few tutorials on the topic over the years. Why does the ccb ascend, for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 CCB and wraparound are not the same thing.. Yea just read it, stupid i put wraparound in there which it is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 An easier way of looking at it is the rarity of a significant snow like 12-25-02 coming after such a heavy front end rain event with thunderstorms. That storm was preceded by a month of solid blocking so there was a good 50/50 in place which kept the cold nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That 930 MB bomb over the NATL appears to be slowing down the flow so the CCB is displaced too far SW this run. Very impressive to see something this low in the Atlantic only a month after the record 924 mb Bering Sea storm GZ_PN_120_0000.gif I'm not suggesting the same outcome. But we had a similar pattern evolution in the Atlantic, with the 2/26/10 storm. Some big low/anomalous trough over the N. Atlantic, causing a ridge to develop over Newfoundland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I just don't see CCB in the offing here . As the system retrogrades from Islip 988 to Trenton 993 it weakens .The best lifting is through New England at this time . What you are seeing on the Euro in EPA is upsloping and as the whole system comes back E off AC that precip downslopes and dries out . The BL is close to 40 and you barely cool the mid levels . Dynamic cooling is not present here which we usually see in CCB set ups. The system aloft is weakening I don't see the evolution here going back to snow based on that run . Just my take . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting look here, only thing screwing up accumulation is the surface. Got this from another site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 PB, lows always weaken after they become vertically stacked and fill. The key is getting the occlusion to occur in a favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.