IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like > 2" water equivlent in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro has the low retrogading right into the NYC area with a lot of rain for the coast and a lot of snow for inland areas. Low occludes at 117 hours and it might be snow for a lot of PA and NJ lol. Crazy solution. I would like to see this occlude further east so everyone can get into it. Long ways to go for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 850's don't cool sufficently in the city until around hr 117, by then we're in the wrap around snows. The interior cools off 3-6hrs sooner however. 925mb is very warm however, would think that dynamic cooling might help given that 850mb isn't an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This storm keeps getting pushed back - Still over 4 days out. In this case, it looks too warm for everyone, even though its a close call further NW you go.. Boundary layer looks torched however. Marginal amount of cold air to work with and that cold High is marching east too quickly to lock in any cold air. i am sure that this evolution is just one of many we will see in the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro has the low retrogading right into the NYC area with a lot of rain for the coast and a lot of snow for inland areas. Low occludes at 117 hours and it might be snow for a lot of PA and NJ lol. Crazy solution. I would like to see this occlude further east so everyone can get into it. Long ways to go for this one. We're getting very little run to run continuity regarding the critical features on the Euro. How quickly and where the H5 low closes off makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We need it to retrogade on the benchmark for the coast to see snow. Interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro has the low retrogading right into the NYC area with a lot of rain for the coast and a lot of snow for inland areas. Low occludes at 117 hours and it might be snow for a lot of PA and NJ lol. Crazy solution. I would like to see this occlude further east so everyone can get into it. Long ways to go for this one. yes and no - devil is always in the details of course- but the basic idea is pretty clear. UKMET and Euro agreement (for the most part) is tough to go against - big interior snowstorm, big rainstorm, with potential for a little mix at the end for NJ/NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 yes and no - devil is always in the details of course- but the basic idea is pretty clear. UKMET and Euro agreement (for the most part) is tough to go against - big interior snowstorm, big rainstorm, with potential for a little mix at the end for NJ/NYC/LI They aren't in agreement at all. Ukie doesn't have the low retrogading like the Euro. Many days to go and more solutions to come. Just a few miles east will help the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro has >40kt 925mb winds extending from NE NJ into New England on Tuesday night. For those that don't know, that's tropical storm force winds at ~2500ft above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 They aren't in agreement at all. Ukie doesn't have the low retrogading like the Euro. Many days to go and more solutions to come. Just a few miles east will help the coast. Sorry but if you think you're gonna get a snowstorm in NYC with this set-up and storm, you are going to be terribly dissapointed. Could you see a few flakes at some point - of course - but this is not anywhere close to what you need for accumulating snows in and around NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The euro taken verbatim is not far at all for accumulating snow for the city. Is it a bad pattern and setup yes but the above post adds little value to the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Regardless, this looks like a pretty interesting setup with the amplification/occlusion aspects. Will be fun to watch unfold regardless of the precip types. The wind potential will also have to be watched. LI could be in for some really strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Sorry but if you think you're gonna get a snowstorm in NYC with this set-up and storm, you are going to be terribly dissapointed. Could you see a few flakes at some point - of course - but this is not anywhere close to what you need for accumulating snows in and around NYCits not the final outcome if u have this storm go 75 miles east you will have a snow event even for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro is an absolutely ideal evolution aloft. That is a classic MECS signal at H5 for somebody on the SW of the occluding surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro has >40kt 925mb winds extending from NE NJ into New England on Tuesday night. For those that don't know, that's tropical storm force winds at ~2500ft above the surface. Mentioned this a few days ago with the GGEM. The models are showing a really impressive low level jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The BL stays warm on the Euro into Wednesday when the surface freeze line gets pushed into Vermont and Canada. A ton of front end WAA off the Atlantic. Big heavy rain threat with strong winds with the squeeze between 1040 HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This retrograding beast of a solution is what we want, so we can get a CCB with NW winds. This is why I don't think the 2/26/10 scenarios were absurd. It would be nice if the storm took a bit of a wider turn so that it could initially be a bit further north to tap into the cold air, and it would also give more time for the northern stream energy to blast southeastward, so that we can close this thing off a bit further east. Then when the storm retrogrades SW, we are in the CCB instead of areas to the west. Given the trends with the northern stream energy being more amplified and racing southeastward, you really never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro is an absolutely ideal evolution aloft. That is a classic MECS signal at H5 for somebody on the SW of the occluding surface low. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This retrograding beast of a solution is what we want, so we can get a CCB with NW winds. This is why I don't think the 2/26/10 scenarios were absurd. It would be nice if the storm took a bit of a wider turn so that it could initially be a bit further north to tap into the cold air, and it would also give more time for the northern stream energy to blast southeastward, so that we can close this thing off a bit further east. Then when the storm retrogrades SW, we are in the CCB instead of areas to the west. Given the trends with the northern stream energy being more amplified and racing southeastward, you really never know. The Euro phases in a true piece of northern stream energy, it sweeps in from Canada and through the Great Lakes with the upper level low then closing off at 111 hours. But now you have northern stream energy involved. The upper level height field itself will obviously buckle as a result of that phase, but more importantly you're working a different airmass in to the storm. The entire height field shifts as the surface low tucks northwestward also in response to the mid level jet orientation..so you can get true CCB snows on the southwest side of a storm in that situation. It's less wraparound and more of a true cold conveyor belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The BL stays warm on the Euro into Wednesday when the surface freeze line gets pushed into Vermont and Canada. A ton of front end WAA off the Atlantic. Big heavy rain threat with strong winds with the squeeze between 1040 HP to the north. The CCB actually does snow on parts of Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic, though. The high resolution Euro confirms it. And the H5 and mid level evolution argues for it as well. That's taking this run verbatim, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Could be some pretty impressive 5 day rainfall tallies from tonight through Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CCB actually does snow on parts of Southeast PA and the Mid Atlantic, though. The high resolution Euro confirms it. And the H5 and mid level evolution argues for it as well. That's taking this run verbatim, obviously. Yeah there is no doubt this storm has potential to shaft Boston and give snow to NYC, PHL or DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah there is no doubt this storm has potential to shaft Boston and give snow to NYC, PHL or DCA I don't think it's very likely. In my experience, these type of evolution's can be charted under the "extreme" category and, in fact, I've only seen them occur during very impressive blocking periods. Feb 2010, as an example, occurred during a -4 AO (rough estimate, I could be slightly off on that one). But I won't go as far as saying that this evolution on the Euro is impossible. We do have a very well timed, anomalous trough swinging through Eastern Canada. So while we may not have an impressive ridge or high latitude block, if timed well that trough could serve a purpose to slow things down. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f72.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 OPC at 96 hrs hot off the press A face only a MOTHER could love ..... op 4.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif check out the 936mb rain showers in the north atlantic You do know that you can get views that don't cover half the earth's surface, right? And ones that are far more granular... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We don't have blocking per-se, but we do have a very slow flow right off our coast. Look at how far apart the 500mb height contours are from 78 through even 102 hours. That's one reason why we can get such a closed off beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The UKMET has a similar scenario where the cutting off would favor areas SW of NYC for back end snows and much of the area gets dry slotted after the heavy rains subside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro is an absolutely ideal evolution aloft. That is a classic MECS signal at H5 for somebody on the SW of the occluding surface low. Agreed just get the track further east, and we'll be underneath the CCB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You do know that you can get views that don't cover half the earth's surface, right? And ones that are far more granular... Those maps are pretty awesome though. Throwbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agreed just get the track further east, and we'll be underneath the CCB: The only place that the wrap around snows really miss is Long Island, everyone else does great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agreed just get the track further east, and we'll be underneath the CCB: Where is the CCB here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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