easternsnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 they're still calling for around 6 inches in most places, just remember they are the experts and most of us here are not mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BGM waving the white flag for their area now. 1-2" max amounts now. Considering many up there were expecting 12"+! ouch.. Poor teleconnections usually win in the end like many spots saw in late November. It can often be a winning bet to short model snowfall output when the 500 mb pattern doesn't match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 they're still calling for around 6 inches in most places, just remember they are the experts and most of us here are not mets From BGM PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED BAND OF MIXED PCPN. H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ON WHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 From BGM PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED BAND OF MIXED PCPN. H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ON WHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY. I was looking at the point and click and some areas they indicated. further east particularly could have up to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I was looking at the point and click and some areas they indicated. further east particularly could have up to 6 inches. point and click isn't very reliable and who knows the last time it was updated. The forecast discussions give you an idea of where they are leaning at that specific moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You can very clearly see the surface low on radar now. It's currently stalled just south of Long Island near the Nassau/Suffolk County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Mid-level lapse rates look pretty impressive tomorrow night for some snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Decent low-level lapse rates on Thursday afternoon as well. These spread east on Thursday evening. I like the idea of some mood snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Luckily Mt Snow is ripping snow right now. Like I said 3000k was going to be a magic number here. So the southern greens will be the jackpot areas localized on the peaks of Snow, Stratton and Okemo (and up to the beast Killington) Whatever little deform band there is over elk mountain in Susquehanna county PA. My uncles place a couple miles away at 1900' is prob right on rain/snow line which should be about 2000k in any decent returns. The fire house monsoon down here is finally over. If it had continued we would have seen serious flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You can very clearly see the surface low on radar now. It's currently stalled just south of Long Island near the Nassau/Suffolk County line. No, it's about 75 miles east of there, south of montauk LI. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No, it's about 75 miles east of there, south of montauk LI. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 So then what's with the circular radar echos along the south shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 METS: Are we still expecting a CCB to form anywhere from EPA to NJ? Or it that now out of the cards. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The storm on radar looks like it's slowly moving over long island definitely doesn't look like it's stalled. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me... Also I don't think long island will see a flake out of this. Upton certainly isn't forecasting any snow for my aera and im in extreme Western Nassau....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The storm on radar looks like it's slowly moving over long island definitely doesn't look like it's stalled. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me... Also I don't think long island will see a flake out of this. Upton certainly isn't forecasting any snow for my aera and im in extreme Western Nassau....... Any flakes will be in the form of snow squalls/snow showers under the instability of the closed upper level low. From tomorrow afternoon to overnight into Thursday. It's very possible to pick up dusting to an inch or 2 under the more intense bands. Temps will be near or below freezing by early Thursday morning and the dew points are in the 20s by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The storm on radar looks like it's slowly moving over long island definitely doesn't look like it's stalled. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me... Also I don't think long island will see a flake out of this. Upton certainly isn't forecasting any snow for my aera and im in extreme Western Nassau....... upton is smart. NYC-east most likely with see snow flakes but nothing to be noted. no worries In another week we'll be getting some more worthwhile possible snow threats to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Mid-level lapse rates look pretty impressive tomorrow night for some snow squalls. Looks like a nice squall set up for a quick coating to inch in the lucky spots by tomorrow evening rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I was wrong. Upton is now forecasting rain showers changing to snow showers tomorrow night with less then a half inch of accumulation!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The radar is starting to fill back in somewhat West of the city but for the time being looks to just be in the form of numerous showers. The HRRR has gone from dry tonight to wet and now back to dry again. I have yet to come across a consistent model the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 upton is smart. NYC-east most likely with see snow flakes but nothing to be noted. no worries In another week we'll be getting some more worthwhile possible snow threats to track holidays and storm tracking, can't beat that combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 20z HRRR redevelops quite a bit of activity over the area tomorrow morning but the BL is quite warm. Mid to upper 30's inland and low 40's on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 20z HRRR redevelops quite a bit of activity over the area tomorrow morning but the BL is quite warm. Mid to upper 30's inland and low 40's on the coast. kinda weird since my temperature has dropped 3 degrees in about a hour and the dp is now 33 with an air temp of 37,night time is our friend here.honestly the temp isnt going to rise with all levels under 0c and a true n-nw wind.. but we shall see tonight my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 18z PGFS looks like the 12z ECMWF in terms of time and placement tomorrow. As stated numerous times already, the BL will be the main issue regarding accumulations. It definitly looks as if we could get about a 6-12 hour burst tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I was wrong. Upton is now forecasting rain showers changing to snow showers tomorrow night with less then a half inch of accumulation!!!! Are you ok over there? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 kinda weird since my temperature has dropped 3 degrees in about a hour and the dp is now 33 with an air temp of 37,night time is our friend here.honestly the temp isnt going to rise with all levels under 0c and a true n-nw wind.. but we shall see tonight my friend. Either you are colder in the BX than western orange county or you need a new thermo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 18z PGFS looks like the 12z ECMWF in terms of time and placement tomorrow. As stated numerous times already, the BL will be the main issue regarding accumulations. It definitly looks as if we could get about a 6-12 hour burst tomorrow afternoon/evening. The boundary layer is what killed this event for many who were expecting a foot +.. Unless we can find a way to cool the BL this storm is over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Either you are colder in the BX than western orange county or you need a new thermo.NYC also drop 3 degrees (both temperature and DP) between 2 and 4 before rising a degree again. It's currently sitting at 39/36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The boundary layer is what killed this event for many who were expecting a foot +.. Unless we can find a way to cool the BL this storm is over for us. Unfortunate high placement and retreat otherwise cold would've stuck around or we could have seen a nice CAD setup. If only the blocking set up further north towards the NAO regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of the models...especially the Canadian....seem to be hinting that the better snow shower activity will set up over Fairfield & New Haven Counties and maybe down to Long Island...should be cold enough for snow everywhere after about 2 PM in the afternoon Wednesday...I mean, its mid December...a west to northwest wind should be blowing to knock dew points into the twenties...should be a good deal of residual moisture left over...so would seem kind of strange if there were not some modest accumulations over the area into tomorrow evening, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 20z HRRR redevelops quite a bit of activity over the area tomorrow morning but the BL is quite warm. Mid to upper 30's inland and low 40's on the coast. It is pretty warm over the NE & Great Lakes at the moment...one would need to travel to the Adirondacks or into Canada to find wholesale 20's...there is some pretty cold air sitting north of Lake Superior and over James Bay...hopefully some of that can be drawn down over the next 24 to 36 hours or so. I do think that with a westerly flow and showers in the area...it should probably turn cold enough for snow & snow showers over most of the area by tomorrow afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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