IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 850's punch SE between 00z and 03z with moisture wrapping around the backside. Low stalls over Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The dryslot tends to get overlooked by forecaters on these events...its rare that a low coming up the East Coast won't have a dry slot....especially if its not a Miller B and has type to get well deveoped...usually somewhere between the 700mb low center and the surface low is where it ends up....its hard to exactly place it though and models often don't see it well. 1-25-00 was the most disappointing one that I can remember. We were just getting into some decent hourly snowfall rates when the snow cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BL is warm, kinda looks like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Bad run for the area, honestly, everything is pulled North and East with just some spotty activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Bad run for the area, honestly, everything is pulled North and East with just some spotty activity. Has almost no precip at all for NJ after 7pm tonight and only lighter stuff through then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Bad run for the area, honestly, everything is pulled North and East with just some spotty activity. Sounds as if the wheels are falling off the model. Huge changes each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm not just saying this because run is off..but in my humble opinion NOWCAST is the best option to try and see where the storm goes..Im not expecting more than a few flakes in my neck of the woods...but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sounds as if the wheels are falling off the model. Huge changes each run. Euro hasn't been stellar with this storm. Heck, none of the models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Has almost no precip at all for NJ after 7pm tonight and only lighter stuff through then. Yeah and then it throws a whole bunch of snow back towards the lakes on Thursday. Normally I would say trust that model, but the run to run changes have been troublesome. Right now my focus is on the HRRR which throws a dry slot over Long Island but maintains solid activity from NYC and points N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro run was colder for the area. Looks like non stop snow showers until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm not just saying this because run is off..but in my humble opinion NOWCAST is the best option to try and see where the storm goes..Im not expecting more than a few flakes in my neck of the woods...but we shall see. couldn't agree w u more, I was getting crucified earlier, instead of sitting waiting for the latest model run to come out DURING the event use your own knowledge and some maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The conservative Euro SV maps have the 2"-4" of snow line very close to NYC by hour 69. 1"-2" for the boroughs. NWNJ is 2"-4". EWR is 1"-2" and anyone south of that gets 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The conservative Euro SV maps have the 2"-4" of snow line very close to NYC by hour 69. 1"-2" for the boroughs. NWNJ is 2"-4". EWR is 1"-2" and anyone south of that gets 0. would be nice salavge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The conservative Euro SV maps have the 2"-4" of snow line very close to NYC by hour 69. 1"-2" for the boroughs. NWNJ is 2"-4". EWR is 1"-2" and anyone south of that gets 0. Extreme NWNJ is in the 4"+ shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Realistically, it looks like a dusting to inch at Central Park Thursday as the UL rolls through. Mostly a car top and grass special as the temps should be above freezing with not such great snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The conservative Euro SV maps have the 2"-4" of snow line very close to NYC by hour 69. 1"-2" for the boroughs. NWNJ is 2"-4". EWR is 1"-2" and anyone south of that gets 0. It`s counting and adding up all the .1`s over 6 hours increments . Which does not accumulate . I don`t see that adding up to 1-2 anywhere but western NJ and the LHV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The conservative Euro SV maps have the 2"-4" of snow line very close to NYC by hour 69. 1"-2" for the boroughs. NWNJ is 2"-4". EWR is 1"-2" and anyone south of that gets 0. Strange, because the weatherbell map is actually less. The 1" line runs through Westchester. NYC and Nassau are 0.5" to 1.0" At least what that does confirm is that the column has definitely trended colder again. Notice how the 500mb heights in the cutoff are a lot lower, and even 528dam thicknesses are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It`s counting and adding up all the .1`s over 6 hours increments . Which does not accumulate . I don`t see that adding up to 1-2 anywhere but western NJ and the LHV . SV maps usually are very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Realistically, it looks like a dusting to inch at Central Park Thursday as the UL rolls through. Mostly a car top and grass special as the temps should be above freezing with not such great snowfall rates. not in the daytime with temps in the lower 40's - warm ground and low snowfall rates - has to happen at night with lower temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Extreme NWNJ is in the 4"+ shade. How about due north of NWNJ in western Orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 not in the daytime with temps in the lower 40's - warm ground and low snowfall rates - has to happen at night with lower temps Euro's snow squalls/showers are tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 this time of year is depressing enough without these models all over the place,anyway it is nowcast time and watching the radar instead of these inconsistent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 How about due north of NWNJ in western Orange county Solidly into the 4"-6" shade. 6"-8" shade not far away to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Solidly into the 4"-6" shade. 6"-8" shade not far away to the north. Hmm thats a pleasant surprise or maybe I'm just being pessimistic.. Thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Although the ECMWF did consistently better than the GFS in the medium-range in picking up on the nor'easter threat, the GFS outperformed the ECMWF in the short-term. In fact, based on last night's 0z runs, it wasn't even close, as far as the Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, eastern and central Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts areas were concerned. Below is some data for 15 cities in the aforementioned region. Forecast precipitation was for the 12/9 0z through 12/9 18z period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 this time of year is depressing enough without these models all over the place,anyway it is nowcast time and watching the radar instead of these inconsistent models. I agree how many times were we watching the HRRR in the summer with the threat of severe and it did not verify by having the placement of the storms in the wrong locations or they didn't even form or weren't even close to severe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 not in the daytime with temps in the lower 40's - warm ground and low snowfall rates - has to happen at night with lower temps Tomorrow yes. The dusting to inch on colder surfaces would have to wait until Wednesday night into Thursday. Best case scenario would be a 4-5-06 closed low overperformer. Sometimes an UL vort channel crossing the Lakes can result in a brief heavier squall. But that would likely be a nowcast. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0405.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BGM waving the white flag for their area now. 1-2" max amounts now. Considering many up there were expecting 12"+! ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BGM waving the white flag for their area now. 1-2" max amounts now. Considering many up there were expecting 12"+! ouch.. The upper low got itself organized too late and the focus of the storm was with the WAA push down here. There'll probably be a lot of snow showers and maybe some surprises around there but the CCB isn't organizing in time and the low is closing off too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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