snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The storm looks like it's up to central Jersey already if im seeing things right on radar. . You still think it's going ro stall south of long island..... Its hauling butt slightly east of due north. E of ACY now. If its gonna stall it better do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Appears to be beginning to pivot and the dry slot is pushing west from NYC. My guess is that it is beginning to slow down and will stall in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Exactly it's definitely hauling. I definitely don't see it stalling south of long island. Looks to be moving alot faster than forcasted that does not look like a slow mover to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If the system doesn't stall south of Long Island you're going to have a major fail by the Euro inside of 24 hours which is almost unheard of, so I'll believe it when I see it. As far as what happens tomorrow, it's going to be very difficult for the modeling to get a good handle on it until later tonight, and I would side with the higher resolution models like the Euro, HRRR, RGEM and RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The surface low is definitly further southeast than what models were showing in the days leading up the storm, and that probably bodes well for the snow chances tomorrow as it looked as if the snows would be confined to our West. In any event, it has a long way to go before reaching Long Island, and that band over the city and NE NJ is pivoting west nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The surface low is definitly further southeast than what models were showing in the days leading up the storm, and that probably bodes well for the snow chances tomorrow as it looked as if the snows would be confined to our West. In any event, it has a long way to go before reaching Long Island, and that band over the city and NE NJ is pivoting west nicely. That map is from 10am.. Its north of that position now and moving full speed ahead northward. Lets hope it decides to put on the brakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That map is from 10am.. Its north of that position now and moving full speed ahead northward. Lets hope it decides to put on the brakes Check radar loop....slowing down considerably last 2-3 frames. Stall is beginning. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=37.7&lon=-92.7&zoom=4&tl.play=1&tl.spd=2&tl.dur=1&rad=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Isn't trying to predict the CCB almost like trying to figure out where a line of storms is going to end up? How many times do the short term models show a nice line moving through and then it never happens? I realize its not the same thing but I feel like we've been burned so many times, regardless of which models have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Isn't trying to predict the CCB almost like trying to figure out where a line of storms is going to end up? How many times do the short term models show a nice line moving through and then it never happens? I realize its not the same thing but I feel like we've been burned so many times, regardless of which models have it Its easy in some events, but this storm is ultimately so discombobulated by tomorrow that its tough to say where it will be...its also very hard to pinpoint the southern end of them which is where the area will be located...its much easier to predict the portion west and northwest of the upper lows, the southwest side is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Isn't trying to predict the CCB almost like trying to figure out where a line of storms is going to end up? How many times do the short term models show a nice line moving through and then it never happens? I realize its not the same thing but I feel like we've been burned so many times, regardless of which models have it Yes. It's going to become easier as the storm slows down and stalls, which it is beginning to do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 rgem has been horrible going back and forth every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 rgem has been horrible going back and forth every run. All of the models have been horrible with this storm. GGEM,GFS and Euro have the ccb right near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 All of the models have been horrible with this storm. GGEM,GFS and Euro have the ccb right near NYC I don't think there will even be a CCB at this point. As you noted earlier, possible snow flurries at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro is big today. The best model had a solid 1-4" of snow for the area under the CCB at 0z. If that shows up again on the 12z run, and in the same general area, then it's likely game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That dry slot is really winning out so far West of the GSP. I wonder if we'll see the axis of heavier rain push west as the low occludes and moves closer to the coast or if the mid-level dry air will be too much to overcome. The latest HRRR maintains activity through at least 01z, especially west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro is big today. The best model had a solid 1-4" of snow for the area under the CCB at 0z. If that shows up again on the 12z run, and in the same general area, then it's likely game time. I agree I would also expect the unexpected to continue with this storm as there have been a few busts with it already here is the radar big dry slot as I mentioned a couple of days ago - I also mentioned a few surprises but no one was taking that seriously either also whoever picked the 10th or 11th in the snowfall contest should pay attention http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I agree I would also expect the unexpected to continue with this storm as there have been a few busts with it already here is the radar big dry slot as I mentioned a couple of days ago - I also mentioned a few surprises but no one was taking that seriously either http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 I doubt anyone is surprised by that dry slot, it's been on the modeling for days now. I think the question is, will the low stall before it gets too far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That dry slot is really winning out so far West of the GSP. I wonder if we'll see the axis of heavier rain push west as the low occludes and moves closer to the coast or if the mid-level dry air will be too much to overcome. The latest HRRR maintains activity through at least 01z, especially west of the city. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DIX&loop=yes You can see the pivot starting . Precip is starting to building on its way SW towards Trenton , Scranton and it re emerging down the GSP in CNJ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I agree I would also expect the unexpected to continue with this storm as there have been a few busts with it already here is the radar big dry slot as I mentioned a couple of days ago - I also mentioned a few surprises but no one was taking that seriously either also whoever picked the 10th or 11th in the snowfall contest should pay attention http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 What busts? You're talking about some ocean effect snow? I don't really consider that major plus no storm behaves 100% as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't think there will even be a CCB at this point. As you noted earlier, possible snow flurries at the end. All of the models show the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I doubt anyone is surprised by that dry slot, it's been on the modeling for days now. I think the question is, will the low stall before it gets too far North. No way. Philly has only received .57" of total rain. No model had such a pronounced dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No way. Philly has only received .57" of total rain. No model had such a pronounced dry slot. Maybe it's because all you did was look at QPF, the dry slot at 700mb was very pronounced. Here is the 12/8/14 18z GFS valid at 18z today which shows all the drying at 700mb, it's going to end up verifying just a tick too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 All of the models show the CCB I wouldn't disagree with Animal he won the November snowfall contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe a Euro preview. 12z UKMET total precip from tomorrow 7am and on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The dryslot tends to get overlooked by forecaters on these events...its rare that a low coming up the East Coast won't have a dry slot....especially if its not a Miller B and has type to get well deveoped...usually somewhere between the 700mb low center and the surface low is where it ends up....its hard to exactly place it though and models often don't see it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The dryslot tends to get overlooked by forecaters on these events...its rare that a low coming up the East Coast won't have a dry slot....especially if its not a Miller B and has type to get well deveoped...usually somewhere between the 700mb low center and the surface low is where it ends up....its hard to exactly place it though and models often don't see it well. Whenever you have the mid-level lows closing off overhead you're going to dry slot underneath them. Once they move far enough east or northeast precip should fill back in, and from the looks of the radar, that's already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The dry slot approaching faster and being stronger actually helps to enhance lift right near it, thus the very heavy rain in Westchester. It's all a balancing act -- enhanced subsidence is going to coincide with an area of very strong lift right near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Rain is definitely pivoting back to the west now-rain still coming down hard here at home. This is the start of the low stalling/stacking/occluding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro initilization looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro has the low near RI by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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