christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Do you even know where Hunter Mtn is? no I don't, cant u snail mail a map to me?? I couldn't find it on the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro dumps on the whole area tommorrow afternoon. Correct. 1-2" over to Nassau County and 2-4" for NNJ west of the Parkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 no I don't, cant u snail mail a map to me?? I couldn't find it on the internet Read more, post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Correct. 1-2" over to Nassau County and 2-4" for NNJ west of the Parkway. I highly doubt that much. Surface too warm until tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The model suite is all slowly caving to the Euro's idea of the CCB over the NYC/NJ/EPA area tomorrow afternoon and night. None of the NCEP suite had that even as recent as yesterday. We have seen many situations where ULLs after intense coastals surprise areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Correct. 1-2" over to Nassau County and 2-4" for NNJ west of the Parkway. And these are off the conservative SV maps. SVs snow map algorithms are far superior to any other source. During the T-day storm, the SV maps (inside of 72 hours) NEVER had accumulating snow for NYC or east, while the terrible wxbell and other sources did several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Correct. 1-2" over to Nassau County and 2-4" for NNJ west of the Parkway. Im not even completely sold on 2-4" up here let alone down in NJ.. How much did last nights Euro give far NW interior sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't see big snows because the BL is going to be borderline and I don't see a deformation or CCB strong enough at this time at least to considerably cool the surface to 31-32...if a surprise heavy area develops its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Im not even completely sold on 2-4" up here let alone down in NJ.. How much did last nights Euro give far NW interior sections? 2"-4" due to lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro has between 0.25" and 0.50" falling over about a 12 hour period tomorrow afternoon and night with cold temps aloft. Most areas should pick up at least 1-2" if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't see big snows because the BL is going to be borderline and I don't see a deformation or CCB strong enough at this time at least to considerably cool the surface to 31-32...if a surprise heavy area develops its possible. It's not really from CCB or deformation. It's due to instability from the closed and stalled 500mb ULL over the area. I guess we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some scattered power outages are now starting to pop up in NE NJ as reported by PSE&G and JCP&L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of the 09z SREF members are quite intense for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I highly doubt that much. Surface too warm until tomorrow night I think you may be surprised, however it may be close for areas immediately around NYC. BL temps are already cooler than modeled and won't get much higher today. Once the snow moves in with cold 850's overhead, it won't take much to cool the column. The usually conservative SV snow map is quite telling. If we can get some of the dynamics advertised on some of the individual 9z SREF members (IsentropicLift posted above), we are game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Im not even completely sold on 2-4" up here let alone down in NJ.. How much did last nights Euro give far NW interior sections? no stall, no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 no stall, no snow The occlusion is very well modeled. Even the lousy GGEM has it, just further North than the concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of the 09z SREF members are quite intense for tomorrow afternoon Looks quite meh. Snow showers brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think you may be surprised, however it may be close for areas immediately around NYC. BL temps are already cooler than modeled and won't get much higher today. Once the snow moves in with cold 850's overhead, it won't take much to cool the column. The usually conservative SV snow map is quite telling. If we can get some of the dynamics advertised on some of the individual 9z SREF members (IsentropicLift posted above), we are game. It just almost never works out as modeled. If we get something I'll be happy I'm just not getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks quite meh. Snow showers brah. Well I guess if you were expecting some massive CCB over the area tomorrow, then yes, meh. I personally think tomorrow will over perform in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well I guess if you were expecting some massive CCB over the area tomorrow, then yes, meh. I personally think tomorrow will over perform in spots. I never was expecting that. My posts yesterday said as much. Define "spots"... I don't think the CP gets anything to accumulate save perhaps a transient coating in a heavier burst. See SnowG's post above, that's been my expectation the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't see big snows because the BL is going to be borderline and I don't see a deformation or CCB strong enough at this time at least to considerably cool the surface to 31-32...if a surprise heavy area develops its possible. BL is cooler today than modeled, and I think it will be hovering 1-2 degrees cooler than modeled tomorrow night. 33/34 for most of the area. Any snow will be sufficient to cool the column and having it at nighttime, though not a major factor in late December, can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You can really see the drying occuring on radar north of Philly, then trying to fill in a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Here's Albany's take on any ULL-driven snowfall... THE 500 HPA LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE DELMARVAAREA. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF PRECIP WILL OCCUROVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT IT WILL NOT BESTEADY OR HEAVY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPSALOFT...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN THECLOUDS...AS THE BEST DEEPER AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFT AWAY FROMTHE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAYOCCUR...ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET AS WELL. TEMPSLOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIREREGION. "meh" indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 THE RGEM continues to waffle...I think it may be settling on a solution though...its shifted East again...now HPN/DXR are basically the higher accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 THE RGEM continues to waffle...I think it may be settling on a solution though...its shifted East again...now HPN/DXR are basically the higher accumulations... Because it's waffling, it cannot be settling on a solution, but a definite shift NE there. The GFS continues the backend focus on EPA, NNJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The RGEM has a lot of snow around tomorrow just north of the area, hopefully it's a bit too far Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 THE RGEM continues to waffle...I think it may be settling on a solution though...its shifted East again...now HPN/DXR are basically the higher accumulations... NYC is near the 5mm shade as well. That would be pretty solid after all this torturous rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Wind Advisory for NYC metro and SW CT has been extended to 7pm tonight: AS FOR WINDS...STILL LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THECOAST INCREASING TO 45-50 KT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THENACTUALLY PIVOTING OVER THE NYC METRO INTO SW CT LATE THISAFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. BASED ON THE STABILITY OF THIS LAYER AND HOWMUCH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANISOLATED 50 KT/58 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON...BUT WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF45 TO 50 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME IS FROM LATE MORNING INTO MIDAFTERNOON. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS LLJ ORIENTS NE/SWOVER NYC METRO INTO SW CT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT WHICH SHOULDALLOW FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH THROUGH AROUND 00Z FORNEAR COASTAL AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 i think we will see occasional snow showers but that's about it. The RGEM is probably accurate with the snows being mostly north given a cooler BL and the lows location. It's tough to disagree with the Euro though and models do seem to be trending towards it but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The storm looks like it's up to central Jersey already if im seeing things right on radar. . You still think it's going to stall south of long island..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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