snowwors2 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z Euro has the ccb right over NYC from hour 48-54. 850s are cold enough. The surface might be a little warm to start. At 48 hours, the Euro forms another low just east of LI. Back to NW philly burbs at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z Euro has the ccb right over NYC from hour 48-54. 850s are cold enough. The surface might be a little warm to start. At 48 hours, the Euro forms another low just east of LI. Thanks for sharing that info Anthony. But what do you think would be a more reliable model now? Should we discount the euro and look at the short range models or is the euro still valuable at this time? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Back to NW philly burbs at all? Yes Thanks for sharing that info Anthony. But what do you think would be a more reliable model now? Should we discount the euro and look at the short range models or is the euro still valuable at this time? Thanks All the models are still valuable. This is a tricky situation coming up. The 2nd low might surprise a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 There is about .4 on the Euro between 0z and 6z Thrs AM @ KNYC EWR JFL LGA to KISP . Which is snow . East of there the BL is too warm as per the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes All the models are still valuable. This is a tricky situation coming up. The 2nd low might surprise a lot of areas. Here is the ensemble track of the storm. I think this evolution bears watching and there is potential of an inch or so at the end for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If I were to choose a model to be bullseyed going into a storm, it would be this one. That`s an understatement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 There is about .4 on the Euro between 0z and 6z Thrs AM @ KNYC EWR JFL LGA to KISP . Which is snow . East of there the BL is too warm as per the EURO. .4 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 .4 qpf? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 .4 qpf? 4/10 ths of an inch of liquid . Those areas would probably be looking at 5 to 1 ratio`s with those BL and could be looking at 2 inches of snow . Which " if " happened would be a major victory . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 4/10 ths of an inch of liquid . Those areas would probably be looking at 5 to 1 ratio`s with those BL and could be looking at 2 inches of snow . Which " if " happened would be a major victory . The 2nd low is the biggest question out of this storm. Where will the CCB end up and how much precip will be left. Euro has light snow from Wednesday through Friday with the 2nd low forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The latest HRRR has a dry slot moving in temporarily around 20z before things start to fill back in around 01-02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 6z GFS has snow accumulating an inch or two even down to philly. Nothing accumulating though east into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 not much west of Philly. Some models had an inch of liquid back to State College PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NOT GOING TO HAPPEN -- any sort of significant wrap around snow in northeast central NJ NYC Long island sw CT Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 no not really If the 700mb low tracks inland over NJ then this will end up being about 12 hours of intense rain and wind, followed by dry slot for the coastal sections of NJ and NYC with big snows for the Poconos and Upstate NY on Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. If that 700mb low were to track about 30-40 miles further southeast, it would keep the 700mb dry layer more out towards Suffolk County and SNE while most of NJ, the LHV, and NYC received several inches of snow after the initial rain. It's a really tough call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 no not really You're a bit late there Chief, that post is almost 24 hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 this storm is a dud for everywhere, even a good portion on new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 this storm is a dud for everywhere, even a good portion on new england Why is it a dud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Why is it a dud? a dud for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 a dud for snow lovers That doesn't make this storm a dud. It's performing exactly the way it was forecasted to do so. The surface low is still deepening. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 this storm is a dud for everywhere, even a good portion on new england Not really-some areas have had 2 inches of rain and there's more to come plus high winds later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not really-some areas have had 2 inches of rain and there's more to come plus high winds later. Some places in the hills out this way have already received >0.25" of ice accretion. Low level cold air hanging tough up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not really-some areas have had 2 inches of rain and there's more to come plus high winds later. I mean for snow lovers, there wont be any backlash snow, of accumulations over a foot in southern new England except maybe hunter mountain, as far as the dynamics of the storm it is a beast dropping a lot of precip and winds undoubtedly will be going off this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Assuming that the 00z ECMWF is correct, the surface low won't be able to gain much more lattitude. The Euro stalls the system south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I mean for snow lovers, there wont be any backlash snow, of accumulations over a foot in southern new England except maybe hunter mountain, as far as the dynamics of the storm it is a beast dropping a lot of precip and winds undoubtedly will be going off this afternoon Do you even know where Hunter Mtn is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Anyone stating that there will be no backlash snow should have a closer look at the models and the current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Assuming that the 00z ECMWF is correct, the surface low won't be able to gain much more lattitude. The Euro stalls the system south of Long Island. Im still liking the idea of a few inches for western areas of the HV as well as extreme NW NJ & NEPA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I mean for snow lovers, there wont be any backlash snow, of accumulations over a foot in southern new England except maybe hunter mountain, as far as the dynamics of the storm it is a beast dropping a lot of precip and winds undoubtedly will be going off this afternoon I can't speak for SNE because they look to be on the wrong side of the surface low, but for the greater NYC area tomorrow looks very Wintry with bands of snow rotating around the occluding surface low. Whether it sticks or not is another question, but flakes will be in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Im still liking the idea of a few inches for western areas of the HV as well as extreme NW NJ & NEPA.. Easily in those locations. Even the city looks to get at least an inch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Im still liking the idea of a few inches for western areas of the HV as well as extreme NW NJ & NEPA.. The Euro dumps on the whole area tommorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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