WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You better call Upton and let them know they have no mention of that in their forecast - I can see some mixture at the start but would be surprised if there was a dusting in the city since the temps are above freezing now http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html No, Wednesday night into Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 congrats to NYC/NJ on this run. CCB action on RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 congrats to NYC/NJ on this run. CCB action on RGEM. Its not really any better than the 18Z run...also too far out of its range too...I'd like to see beyond 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 congrats to NYC/NJ on this run. CCB action on RGEM. Seems like the RGEM does bring through some snow showers for NENJ/NYC.....not worthy of a congrats at all though, unfortunately. It does actually give some steadier snows to EPA/WNJ even down to the Trenton area. It could shift east on future runs, though the models really have been pretty insistent on keeping it over that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nor' easter is old maritime lingo for a wind from that direction for more than 2 tides and keeping the boats in port. The dutch i think originated the old saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1026 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ...ICING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY... CTZ007-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ069-070-091400- /O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.141209T0500Z-141209T1400Z/ NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1026 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT...ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...AND IN NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...EASTERN PASSAIC...WESTERN ESSEX AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES... FREEZING RAIN. CHANCE OF SLEET AS WELL. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ANY AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN CAN MAKE WALKING AND TRAVELING HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30...RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Thats somewhat wrong. A Nor Easter is a storm that takes a track where the wind direction on land is from the northeast. It is more so related to wind direction. Not the direction the storm travels Picky picky picky. Nor'easter is a subjective nomenclature, but can you name some cases where such a storm moved in a direction other than roughly to the northeast? Sandy maybe, but that was one of a kind. Any others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Picky picky picky. Nor'easter is a subjective nomenclature, but can you name some cases where such a storm moved in a direction other than roughly to the northeast? Sandy maybe, but that was one of a kind. Any others? April 2007 which has similarities to this storm. Also feb78 did a loop so for a time it didOh and the big one is March 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Enough already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 April 2007 which has similarities to this storm. Also feb78 did a loop so for a time it did Oh and the big one is March 1888 Didn't the 96' blizzard do a loop ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 A so called "Nor'easter" is a good deal more common during the cold season (November thru April) than during the warm season (May thru October). This is because the sharp thermal contrasts necessary to produce mid latitude cyclogenesis are not present during the warmer parts of the year. For example, during July, it is not uncommon for it to be cooler in Florida than in Manitoba as there is a far more uniform distribution of temperature across the North American continent during the summer. This is not surprising...as the length of the day featuring daylight actually increases as one heads towards the North Pole from the spring equinox to the autumnal equinox. However, during the period from September 21st thru March 21st, daylight hours fall off quickly as one heads northbound; and, as one would expect, it gets quite a bit colder on average. Differences in temperature will invariably lead to differences in pressure...both at the surface & aloft...and it is these contrasts that are absolutely elemental in driving our weather...often resulting in what we would typically call a mid latitude cyclone or area of low pressure. If the storm forms near the East Coast and heads northeastward...ultimately gaining sufficient barometric depth to generate powerful winds and copious amounts of rain & snow while deepening in the coastal waters...it may ultimately gain recognition as a "Nor'easter". I mean if you want some type of historical context...IIRC...Ben Franklin...one of the early observers of weather in the American colonies...was somewhat surprised by the fact that a strong storm producing NE winds arrived in Boston 12 hours or so after it was felt down in Philly...I don't know if this was a "world is not really flat" moment...but I do know it was one of the first times it was actually documented that there was surprise among the population to be made cognizant of this fact...Franklin had assumed, albeit incorrectly...that since the wind was out of the NE...the storm headed southwestward...hence his shock at its later arrival in Boston...350 miles to the NE of Philly & him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 April 2007 which has similarities to this storm. Also feb78 did a loop so for a time it did I thought about that, but the loops are usually temporary. No storm ever moves continuously on a true northeast course, neither do the winds blow from 45 for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I mean if you want some type of historical context...IIRC...Ben Franklin...one of the early observers of weather in the American colonies...was somewhat surprised by the fact that a strong storm producing NE winds arrived in Boston 12 hours or so after it was felt down in Philly...I don't know if this was a "world is not really flat" moment...but I do know it was one of the first times it was actually documented that there was surprise among the population to be made cognizant of this fact...Franklin had assumed, albeit incorrectly...that since the wind was out of the NE...the storm headed southwestward...hence his shock at its later arrival in Boston...350 miles to the NE of Philly & him. Personally, I always cite three reasons why the name Nor'Easter took root...the storm generates powerful northeast winds in the area primarily impacted by its rain & snow...the storm generally moves in a northeasterly fashion...and, lastly, the storm gains maximum intensity in the waters off the coast of the Northeastern states of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nam update any wraparound snow? At work thanks for whatever its worth .2" at KLGA of snow at 51-57 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 18Z RGEM is more like the Euro now on Wednesday near and west from NYc...it has come notably east from where it was. What's the next image after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If I were to choose a model to be bullseyed going into a storm, it would be this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If I were to choose a model to be bullseyed going into a storm, it would be this one. Biased much because it has you in jackpot ? Makes me laugh oh boy, the RGEM has been flopping left right up down the past 5 runs haha, it has no stock right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If I were to choose a model to be bullseyed going into a storm, it would be this one. I'll trust it if it still shows this tomorrow AM...its been very wishy washy so far this fall beyond 30 hours....it does sort of fit the Euro and the GFS just now to an extent. I think the boundary layer is going to be just a bit too warm though...it would take some very heavy snows to overcome it and I'm not sure that will happen. The #1 analog for this ironically at 500mb on CIPS when I just looked is 12/11/93 which I posted earlier today reminded me alot of this setup at 500mb, I had not looked at CIPS until after thinking that....that storm had about a 50 mile wide area of snow associated with the 500mb trof...it may be the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'll trust it if it still shows this tomorrow AM...its been very wishy washy so far this fall beyond 30 hours....it does sort of fit the Euro and the GFS just now to an extent. I think the boundary layer is going to be just a bit too warm though...it would take some very heavy snows to overcome it and I'm not sure that will happen. The #1 analog for this ironically at 500mb on CIPS when I just looked is 12/11/93 which I posted earlier today reminded me alot of this setup at 500mb, I had not looked at CIPS until after thinking that....that storm had about a 50 mile wide area of snow associated with the 500mb trof...it may be the same here. Funny that you mentioned 12/11/93, remember it quite well, most destructive beast and yeah, that one did dump 3" of snow here as well. As far as the RGEM is concerned, Yeah, it's not been doing quite so well this season unlike last year when it's Bulls eyes were spot on, at least for here. So far this year, at least with the Novy event, it seems to be running a little on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 for whatever its worth .2" at KLGA of snow at 51-57 hours out. and forever its worth here is the 00Z GFS. Unfortunately I believe it is out of its comfort zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If I were to choose a model to be bullseyed going into a storm, it would be this one. This will obviously change in the next several runs, but we have seen stuff like this before.....where the bands move from the NW to SE and it is as cold in freehold, for example, as it is in NEPA/NWNJ. It's not something that is likely, but it is definitely possible I would think. I'm not saying that because it benefits me either.....I'm in the area of almost nothing in NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Funny that you mentioned 12/11/93, remember it quite well, most destructive beast and yeah, that one did dump 3" of snow here as well. As far as the RGEM is concerned, Yeah, it's not been doing quite so well this season unlike last year when it's Bulls eyes were spot on, at least for here. So far this year, at least with the Novy event, it seems to be running a little on the cold side. 93? Was it a south jersey special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 93? Was it a south jersey special? No, snow band basically was from about EWR to the Nassau/Suffolk border..it extended down into Monmouth a bit I think, but that was it, central LI and west of EWR saw almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Biased much because it has you in jackpot ? Makes me laugh oh boy, the RGEM has been flopping left right up down the past 5 runs haha, it has no stock right now Of course I'm biased, this is a weather broad full of snow junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No, snow band basically was from about EWR to the Nassau/Suffolk border..it extended down into Monmouth a bit I think, but that was it, central LI and west of EWR saw almost nothing Correct. I remeber doing doughnuts in the parking lot of the Freehold Mall in my 72 Galaxie during that. That night drove to New Bruswick and there was barely any snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 i remember that 93 storm well.worked at staples in north brunswick nj, we had snow to beat the band until early evening, all the management team lived in the point pleasant area and had huge problems getting home due to huge tidal flooding issues. good luck all. we down south here in fl will enjoy the cold blast post storm. I'll trust it if it still shows this tomorrow AM...its been very wishy washy so far this fall beyond 30 hours....it does sort of fit the Euro and the GFS just now to an extent. I think the boundary layer is going to be just a bit too warm though...it would take some very heavy snows to overcome it and I'm not sure that will happen. The #1 analog for this ironically at 500mb on CIPS when I just looked is 12/11/93 which I posted earlier today reminded me alot of this setup at 500mb, I had not looked at CIPS until after thinking that....that storm had about a 50 mile wide area of snow associated with the 500mb trof...it may be the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 This will obviously change in the next several runs, but we have seen stuff like this before.....where the bands move from the NW to SE and it is as cold in freehold, for example, as it is in NEPA/NWNJ. It's not something that is likely, but it is definitely possible I would think. I'm not saying that because it benefits me either.....I'm in the area of almost nothing in NENJ It would say RGEM is wrong and that your area has an equal to or better chance of accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Correct. I remeber doing doughnuts in the parking lot of the Freehold Mall in my 72 Galaxie during that. That night drove to New Bruswick and there was barely any snow there. Lol....I still enjoy that. Lots of mall lots have planters etc. in them now, but there are still plenty of other good places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No, snow band basically was from about EWR to the Nassau/Suffolk border..it extended down into Monmouth a bit I think, but that was it, central LI and west of EWR saw almost nothing 12/11/93, 6" in Massapequa, 8 miles to the east in Babylon, 1.5" A rare SE Nassau bull's-eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z Euro has the ccb right over NYC from hour 48-54. 850s are cold enough. The surface might be a little warm to start. At 48 hours, the Euro forms another low just east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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