IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yes but western Passaic Sussex into orange county make sense as the west east dividing line. Nothing really modeled east of there. So that map makes sense. It has more than just winter weather advisories, what about the river flooding potential? Flood watches in place. Coastal Flooding possible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That's not going to cut it. It may not cut it on Astoria Blvd or on 34th Street but it will probably cut it out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The air temperature is well into the 40s over the ocean-that's all that matters. That air's headed for us-the snow flurries today are warm advection from the ocean.no I totally understand that I'm just stating the fact that our temperatures were supposed to rise already to at least upper 30's. Now that we have some type of CAD setup it could be horrible for anyone outside of the coast with heavy freezing rain tonight. Honestly though, upton already busted as parts of Long Island and coastal New Jersey received snow from ocean effect and that wasn't even mentioned. I suspect there will be more surprises with this storm! I don't think it'll only be rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I brought that up on this forum. It looked unbelievable and was left there for a very long time (haven't noticed if it's still there). Between the March 2010 nor'easter, Irene, Sandy and the nor'easter after Sandy, there shouldn't be a ridiculous amount of tree damage on the south shore with this storm as many of the weaker or dying trees have already fallen. You can see in this video from Wantagh near Ottos Deli how a number of them probably came down in quick bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 925mb winds are tremendous, 50-60kts over eastern NJ/NYC and a bit less everywhere else. I would think in this setup a good percentage would transfer down to the surface given the tremendous dynamics. The NWS reasoning: HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVECTED TO AN ADVISORY AS LATEST PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 50+ KT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MODERATELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE INCLUDED NYC METRO FOR THE WINDS ON THE BRIDGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NWS reasoning: HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVECTED TO AN ADVISORY AS LATEST PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 50+ KT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MODERATELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE INCLUDED NYC METRO FOR THE WINDS ON THE BRIDGES. I guess we shall see, I'm sure they know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 no I totally understand that I'm just stating the fact that our temperatures were supposed to rise already to at least upper 30's. Now that we have some type of CAD setup it could be horrible for anyone outside of the coast with heavy freezing rain tonight. Honestly though, upton already busted as parts of Long Island and coastal New Jersey received snow from ocean effect and that wasn't even mentioned. I suspect there will be more surprises with this storm! I don't think it'll only be rain! The cold air will not hang on in this set up whatsoever. The best chance you have to see any snow falling is after the storm occludes, stalls and drifts around. Even then it will most likely not accumulate (if it does snow at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 i finally got to see euro temp data and while the mid level low track and precip depictions are better for snow, the boundary layer is torched. most of NJ is in the 40's wed afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 i finally got to see euro temp data and while the mid level low track and precip depictions are better for snow, the boundary layer is torched. most of NJ is in the 40's wed afternoon The high res Euro is mostly around 37F at 18z for places like KEWR. Of course it's warmer as you get closer to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You can see in this video from Wantagh near Ottos Deli how a number of them probably came down in quick bursts. Wow those people are annoying. Based on daylight that was pretty early during sandy before the period of strongest winds. That area is predominantly oaks and thus they had there leaves still and took a major hit. We don't have leaves to worry about right now. I really think tree damage will be very minimal. Even if we do see 60+ gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 18Z RGEM is more like the Euro now on Wednesday near and west from NYc...it has come notably east from where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow those people are annoying. Based on daylight that was pretty early during sandy before the period of strongest winds. That area is predominantly oaks and thus they had there leaves still and took a major hit. We don't have leaves to worry about right now. I really think tree damage will be very minimal. Even if we do see 60+ gusts. My friend growing up lived a few blocks from John Street where that was shot. Otto's German potato salad, cole slaw and custard were almost a staples for me. I agree. All those storms culled the weakest trees and this storm is happening after all the leaves have already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 18Z RGEM is more like the Euro now on Wednesday near and west from NYc...it has come notably east from where it was. Thanks for the post. Any shift 25 miles could make a world of difference for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton only went with 40mph winds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah even 40mph winds will do a lot of tree damage with a saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 18z GFS and NAM both bring gusts over 50 mph across Long Island tomorrow between 15z-18z. The NAM introduces gusts to around 60 out near MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 People are going to start to be banned left and right if the talk doesn't stay on topic, relevant, and within the boundaries of the discussion. I try to keep it really loose and chill around here but I've just about had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 People are going to start to be banned left and right if the talk doesn't stay on topic, relevant, and within the boundaries of the discussion. I try to keep it really loose and chill around here but I've just about had it. +1 I am on several forums (well over 15) for various things I like in life, and this is BY FAR the most badgering/trolling/arguing forum I am on. But I really love this forum for the knowledge I gain and the Meteo insight I receive from our Pros and quality knowledgeable posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Someone please explain if Nor'easters are mostly related to winter storms? Do Noreasters happen more during summer or winter? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Someone please explain if Nor'easters are mostly related to winter storms? Do Noreasters happen more during summer or winter? Thank you. Yes they are but don't always mean snow. They are rare in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nam update any wraparound snow? At work thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nam update any wraparound snow? At work thanks As of 12Z Wed. there doesn't appear to be any. Some to the west in Pa. If we get anything after that it probably will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory extended into Hunterdon, Somerset and Morris Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 a major storm is here and there is clearly a dearth of professional mets in this thread. Let me suggest to the mods that we may ultimately be better off with a professional Mets only thread for each storm. The weenies all they want in one thread and those of us here to learn can gain from the professional thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory extended into Hunterdon, Somerset and Morris Counties. I think their main concern is a chance of freezing rain on some roads tonight. It only runs until 7am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Surprise # 2 - those are Mount Holly zones lets see if Upton issues any additional advisories - would make sense ........... Oh man, your trying to so hard to make it sound like this is going to surprise. Surpise #2 etc. relax this is a rainstorm with a CHANCE of snow at the end. thats it bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nam update any wraparound snow? At work thanks Looks to be a period of snow coming through the NYC overnight into early Thursday morning. Maybe a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Someone please explain if Nor'easters are mostly related to winter storms? Do Noreasters happen more during summer or winter? Thank you. A so called "Nor'easter" is a good deal more common during the cold season (November thru April) than during the warm season (May thru October). This is because the sharp thermal contrasts necessary to produce mid latitude cyclogenesis are not present during the warmer parts of the year. For example, during July, it is not uncommon for it to be cooler in Florida than in Manitoba as there is a far more uniform distribution of temperature across the North American continent during the summer. This is not surprising...as the length of the day featuring daylight actually increases as one heads towards the North Pole from the spring equinox to the autumnal equinox. However, during the period from September 21st thru March 21st, daylight hours fall off quickly as one heads northbound; and, as one would expect, it gets quite a bit colder on average. Differences in temperature will invariably lead to differences in pressure...both at the surface & aloft...and it is these contrasts that are absolutely elemental in driving our weather...often resulting in what we would typically call a mid latitude cyclone or area of low pressure. If the storm forms near the East Coast and heads northeastward...ultimately gaining sufficient barometric depth to generate powerful winds and copious amounts of rain & snow while deepening in the coastal waters...it may ultimately gain recognition as a "Nor'easter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks to be a period of snow coming through the NYC overnight into early Thursday morning. Maybe a dusting? You better call Upton and let them know they have no mention of that in their forecast - I can see some mixture at the start but would be surprised if there was a dusting in the city since the temps are above freezing now http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 A so called "Nor'easter" is a good deal more common during the cold season (November thru April) than during the warm season (May thru October). This is because the sharp thermal contrasts necessary to produce mid latitude cyclogenesis are not present during the warmer parts of the year. For example, during July, it is not uncommon for it to be cooler in Florida than in Manitoba as there is a far more uniform distribution of temperature across the North American continent during the summer. This is not surprising...as the length of the day featuring daylight actually increases as one heads towards the North Pole from the spring equinox to the autumnal equinox. However, during the period from September 21st thru March 21st, daylight hours fall off quickly as one heads northbound; and, as one would expect, it gets quite a bit colder on average. Differences in temperature will invariably lead to differences in pressure...both at the surface & aloft...and it is these contrasts that are absolutely elemental in driving our weather...often resulting in what we would typically call a mid latitude cyclone or area of low pressure. If the storm forms near the East Coast and heads northeastward...ultimately gaining sufficient barometric depth to generate powerful winds and copious amounts of rain & snow while deepening in the coastal waters...it may ultimately gain recognition as a "Nor'easter". Thats somewhat wrong. A Nor Easter is a storm that takes a track where the wind direction on land is from the northeast. It is more so related to wind direction. Not the direction the storm travels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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