IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 IsentropicLift what does that track mean for the wind potential for NYC east? 925mb winds are tremendous, 50-60kts over eastern NJ/NYC and a bit less everywhere else. I would think in this setup a good percentage would transfer down to the surface given the tremendous dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I am still impressed by how many trees blew down along the Meadowbrook Parkway between Merrick Road and Sunrise Highway in that tight cluster. March 2010, Irene, and Sandy really culled out the weaker trees. I brought that up on this forum. It looked unbelievable and was left there for a very long time (haven't noticed if it's still there). Between the March 2010 nor'easter, Irene, Sandy and the nor'easter after Sandy, there shouldn't be a ridiculous amount of tree damage on the south shore with this storm as many of the weaker or dying trees have already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Is this frozen for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not to burst any bubbles, but while 850s cool, the BL is still warm and there don't appear to be any accums for anyone outside of NEPA and a small area of exteme NWNJ. Yeah Upton's not biting either..has no mention of snow til late Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You couldn't have asked for a better run than this unless you live on Long Island, and the Western half still does okay. The surface low ends up occluding near the south shore of RI with a tremendous CCB stretching from Western Maine SW towards extreme eastern MD. Everyone from I-78N in NJ up through Western New England gets dumped on late Tuesday night. The eastern 2/3rds of Suffolk County get the dry slot. That isn't snow in the CCB for 90+% of this area. And it's out before somewhat less marginal air can move in. There is no fresh cold air source! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton only went with a wind advisory from 8-5pm tommorw for gust up to 40 -50mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah Upton's not biting either..has no mention of snow til late Wednesday nightusually last to bite in any storm. Not saying its gunna happen but they are last to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah Upton's not biting either..has no mention of snow til late Wednesday night They shouldn't. There is nothing to chew on snow-wise for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The key is getting the stronger dynamics to cool the column. If that happens, the surface will cool. Maybe not enough on the immediate coastal plain but sufficently NW. We've seen this before and all of the sudden it becomes a surprise when it snows and accumulates. However I don't think it'll apply this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 usually last to bite in any storm. Not saying its gunna happen but they are last to join the party. Upton is consistently on the aggressive side re:snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 One thing is that the LLJ is north of east rather than south of east, so there is a bit more land interaction and thus friction when winds try to mix down. But 60+ mph gusts could still be possible in Northern LI as they will have reduced friction right along the sound. Regardless, I think 50-60mph gusts are likely in other coastal areas, and 40-50mph gusts just inland. Perhaps I'll bump these up with tonight's soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah Upton's not biting either..has no mention of snow til late Wednesday night you blame them after how bad they busted on 11/26 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton only went with a wind advisory from 8-5pm tommorw for gust up to 40 -50mph... Yeah I think they should upgrade it to a high wind warning for the coastal sections. I understand they're trying to be conservative, but they should make the public a little more aware of how high these winds could be. Almost all models support 50+ wind gusts along the coast, so I have no idea why they only went with a wind advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That isn't snow in the CCB for 90+% of this area. And it's out before somewhat less marginal air can move in. There is no fresh cold air source! Not sure if you saw how much temps aloft dynamically cooled under that band. The surface could end up colder than depicted. I've always felt that key here would be getting the 700mb low offshore and the strong dynamics over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Snow won't be a factor IMO unless you're a good ways into the hills, or you're extremely lucky to be in a heavy enough band to mix snow to the ground elsewhere. Temps mostly look to be in the mid and upper 30s behind the low. I could see there being a few inches in the N NJ hills, but the real snow will be in extreme NE PA and then into the Catskills and NE from there. For most it will be a windy heavy rain event, depending on where the dryslot sets up it could mostly be a 6-8 hour rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Everyone should see some snow as the low occludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Snow won't be a factor IMO unless you're a good ways into the hills, or you're extremely lucky to be in a heavy enough band to mix snow to the ground elsewhere. Temps mostly look to be in the mid and upper 30s behind the low. I could see there being a few inches in the N NJ hills, but the real snow will be in extreme NE PA and then into the Catskills and NE from there. For most it will be a windy heavy rain event, depending on where the dryslot sets up it could mostly be a 6-8 hour rain event. I can understand why folks on the immediate coastal plain and on Long Island are less than optimistic about this storm. As advertised you would go from very heavy rain and gusty winds to dry slot. Further West however, say N&W of 287 in NJ and NY, the potential exists for a lot more. Where does the 700mb low track and how expansive is the dry slot? How much do the lower levels cool under the intense banding and how quickly does the colder air wrap in tomorrow night? Those are all questions that we still need to answer. I think this will have some surprises in the frozen department, and I think that the wind will end up being the main story from NYC and points East, with perhaps some wet snow early Wednesday morning. Personally, I'm not expecting much in the way of snow for my backyard. But this storm brings to the table so much more than the potential for a few sloppy inches. This will likely end up as one of my top ten storms of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not sure if you saw how much temps aloft dynamically cooled under that band. The surface could end up colder than depicted. I've always felt that key here would be getting the 700mb low offshore and the strong dynamics over the area. I couldn't care less about aloft if the BL is bad, which is is anywhere except the highest elevations. Lean on dynamic cooling in the CCB at your own peril, they are notoriously banded features that oftentimes pan out over a much smaller area than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By the way, looks like Mt. Holly has hoisted a whole bunch of warnings and advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Everyone should see some snow as the low occludes There might be snow in the air over a wide area at some point but I doubt much accumulates at a lower elevation if the temp is 36 degrees when it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I couldn't care less about aloft if the BL is bad, which is is anywhere except the highest elevations. Lean on dynamic cooling in the CCB at your own peril, they are notoriously banded features that oftentimes pan out over a much smaller area than modeled. Surface temps on the Euro drop to 34-35F in most spots away from the coast after 00z. At that point it will depend on if the dry mid level air has taken over or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 why is anyone not talking about how this airmass is much much colder than modeled? My high was supposed to be 42 it's 30 degrees The high was supposed to be 35 and isn't done climbing. If you think that means more snow at the coast you're very mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I can understand why folks on the immediate coastal plain and on Long Island are less than optimistic about this storm. As advertised you would go from very heavy rain and gusty winds to dry slot. Further West however, say N&W of 287 in NJ and NY, the potential exists for a lot more. Where does the 700mb low track and how expansive is the dry slot? How much do the lower levels cool under the intense banding and how quickly does the colder air wrap in tomorrow night? Those are all questions that we still need to answer. I think this will have some surprises in the frozen department, and I think that the wind will end up being the main story from NYC and points East, with perhaps some wet snow early Wednesday morning. Personally, I'm not expecting much in the way of snow for my backyard. But this storm brings to the table so much more than the potential for a few sloppy inches. This will likely end up as one of my top ten storms of all time. It's going to be an exciting storm here too with 60 mph wind gusts, a good slug of heavy rain and huge waves/beach erosion. I don't think it comes close to the biggies for this area such as the March 2010 storm, December 1992, Irene, and particularly Sandy, but it should be fun for a while. But I think people jumping on board for more than snow in the air down around here and the City are going to be disappointed. The airmass won't allow for anything to accumulate down here and I suspect most of the area unless we get very lucky under a band for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 A bit out of range but the HRRR is showing the potential for quite a bit for freezing rain at the onset well N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 why is anyone not talking about how this airmass is much much colder than modeled? My high was supposed to be 42 it's 30 degrees The air temperature is well into the 40s over the ocean-that's all that matters. That air's headed for us-the snow flurries today are warm advection from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Surface temps on the Euro drop to 34-35F in most spots away from the coast after 00z. At that point it will depend on if the dry mid level air has taken over or not. That's not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The high was supposed to be 35 and isn't done climbing. If you think that means more snow at the coast you're very mistaken Shhhh. Let him make his snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By the way, looks like Mt. Holly has hoisted a whole bunch of warnings and advisories. Yes but western Passaic Sussex into orange county make sense as the west east dividing line. Nothing really modeled east of there. So that map makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS continues to be quicker than the ECMWF/NAM. Massive dry slot moves in after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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