Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 this run looks more impressive than 0z for snow potential under the ULL Any specific location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any specific location? Jackpot on the high res is Vernon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's a term way over used but..a now cast event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Impressive 4 to 5 SD event on that LLJ between 15-18z tomorrow. 925WIND-11.gif I think we'll see the HWW upgraded to a warning for NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 COLD outside, 29/17 in EWR! That is a bust by the models of about 10-12 degrees over a couple days. This airmass and the one after occlusion could be more than cold enough to get some decent snows on the backend in here, if precip cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 COLD outside, 29/17 in EWR! That is a bust by the models of about 10-12 degrees over a couple days. This airmass and the one after occlusion could be more than cold enough to get some decent snows on the backend in here, if precip cooperates.I'm curious to see what the LHV and far NWNJ BL s start at. They are so close to where the NEPA CCB occurs . If there is a bust it maybe they get off to an icey start and a snowier end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 this run looks more impressive than 0z for snow potential under the ULL It looks like the system occludes later, the setup is definitely one I could see someone getting snow but its probably going to be a small area...could easly see 3-4 inches in the area from west of NYC to EPA somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I still think winds are going to over produce tomorrow. Should be the strongest wide spread winds since Sandy. Gusts to 50 should be widespread even in the 60s at the coast. Sandy did some serious tree cleaning so I wouldn't expect much damage. I tell all my clients if you're trees survived sandy I wouldn't worry about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I still think winds are going to over produce tomorrow. Should be the strongest wide spread winds since Sandy. Gusts to 50 should be widespread even in the 60s at the coast. Sandy did some serious tree cleaning so I wouldn't expect much damage. I tell all my clients if you're trees survived sandy I wouldn't worry about them. I am still impressed by how many trees blew down along the Meadowbrook Parkway between Merrick Road and Sunrise Highway in that tight cluster. March 2010, Irene, and Sandy really culled out the weaker trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM is coming in colder, especially for the LHV. Good front end dump if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Sullivan County (NY) is now under a Winter Storm Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This run is going to have a lot of mixed precip for the far NW burbs, the cold air is hanging tougher at certain levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 700mb low tracks near ACY and then just off the NJ coast. The dry slot goes more towards the East end of Long Island, QPF bomb over NYC, LHV, NYC and western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tremendous RH and VV over the area, just wow. Areas of West of the city starting to flip to snow or mixed precip before 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, models catching up on colder air...this could get interesting for entire storm well N/W and everywhere NYC and west for the backlash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Surface low tracks to the Twin Forks, weenie suicides west of the DE river with tremendous cut off into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 What a difference this makes, 850mb temps rapidly cool under the strong dynmaics and by 03z 850s are below freezing all the way out to the Nassau County Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I am still impressed by how many trees blew down along the Meadowbrook Parkway between Merrick Road and Sunrise Highway in that tight cluster. March 2010, Irene, and Sandy really culled out the weaker trees. this has been the decade of power outages... the nov 2012 snowstorm also brought down lots of weaker trees that sandy didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You couldn't have asked for a better run than this unless you live on Long Island, and the Western half still does okay. The surface low ends up occluding near the south shore of RI with a tremendous CCB stretching from Western Maine SW towards extreme eastern MD. Everyone from I-78N in NJ up through Western New England gets dumped on late Tuesday night. The eastern 2/3rds of Suffolk County get the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 this has been the decade of power outages... the nov 2012 snowstorm also brought down lots of weaker trees that sandy didn't Right. We can add the historic later October 2011 heavy wet snowstorm for taking trees down in interior sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I am still impressed by how many trees blew down along the Meadowbrook Parkway between Merrick Road and Sunrise Highway in that tight cluster. March 2010, Irene, and Sandy really culled out the weaker trees. I'm not worried about many tree losses here in Long Beach from this-whatever trees were dying from saltwater exposure the city cut down last summer. It's crazy to see in some cases entire streets with no trees left. Power lines might still come down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 oh me oh my I smell colder air holding and back end snows a tick further east too a potential early xmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Terrible run for SNE, dry slot city once the rain moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You couldn't have asked for a better run than this unless you live on Long Island, and the Western half still does okay. The surface low ends up occluding near the south shore of RI with a tremendous CCB stretching from Western Maine SW towards extreme eastern MD. Everyone from I-78N in NJ up through Western New England gets dumped on late Tuesday night. The eastern 2/3rds of Suffolk County get the dry slot. WTF?! That is a downright sinister shafting! what a sheer waste of a storm. Oh boy what this storm might've been if we actually had some decent blocking and a better antecedent airmass I suppose you'll be sending me pics of your backlash snow accumulations late tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 35kt surface winds are showing up on the NAM as far inland as MMU and even higher in places. The key will be getting those strong dynamics to bring the stronger winds down and cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not to burst any bubbles, but while 850s cool, the BL is still warm and there don't appear to be any accums for anyone outside of NEPA and a small area of exteme NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 IsentropicLift what does that track mean for the wind potential for NYC east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm not worried about many tree losses here in Long Beach from this-whatever trees were dying from saltwater exposure the city cut down last summer. It's crazy to see in some cases entire streets with no trees left. Power lines might still come down though. I was down there the other day and almost forgot what block I was on since it looks so different without the trees. There were so many sycamores that were sick before Sandy that they needed to come down anyway. One of those diseased sycamores lost a huge limb on my block in a weak storm and almost landed right on my car. There was so much dead wood around that a 30 mph gust could snap off a huge branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Sussex/Passaic border up around Highland lakes and NE towards Newburgh accumulating well by dinnertime. Gets dicey for awhile after that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not to burst any bubbles, but while 850s cool, the BL is still warm and there don't appear to be any accums for anyone outside of NEPA and a small area of exteme NWNJ. The key is getting the stronger dynamics to cool the column. If that happens, the surface will cool. Maybe not enough on the immediate coastal plain but sufficently NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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