ag3 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NYC receives a scraping. What was wrong with my post? I specifically referenced a particular time table. Most of it is focused over NNJ. You think every one of my posts is centered around my backyard. Open your eyes and read for once in your life. I just posted the Map bro. NYC receives over 10mm+ of precip from the CCB AFTER hour 48. How is 10mm+ a scraping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I just posted the Map bro. NYC receives over 10mm+ of precip from the CCB AFTER hour 48. How is 10mm+ a scraping? You're talking about the run as a whole and I'm talking about a specific panel within the run. The LOL was not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You're talking about the run as a whole and I'm talking about a specific panel within the run. The LOL was not needed. Yes it was. You happened to leave out that the UKMET bullseyes the NYC metro area with the CCB. I would think that is a pretty important fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yes it was. You happened to leave out that the UKMET bullseyes the NYC metro area with the CCB. I would think that is a pretty important fact. Look at the map that you posted, who gets more, MMU or LGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Look at the map that you posted, who gets more, MMU or LGA? About the same. LGA gets 10mm-11mm MMU gets 10mm-12mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Great so the UKMET has snow for all...can we move on now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The fact of the matter is there will be massive 700mb dry slot right a long the coast behind the initial band of intense rain. That will likely dry out Long Island, NE NJ, NYC and parts of SNE. Perhaps even extending as far inland as NE PA depending on your model of choice. It's going to take quite a large shift inside of 24 hours in order to get the heavier snows over the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 About the same. LGA gets 10mm-11mm MMU gets 10mm-12mm So what's your point then? Not everything is about NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Time for the 12z ECMWF, decent amount of light activity through tonight right along the immediate coast. 850's shift north of the area between 06-09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The fact of the matter is there will be massive 700mb dry slot right a long the coast behind the initial band of intense rain. That will likely dry out Long Island, NE NJ, NYC and parts of SNE. Perhaps even extending as far inland as NE PA depending on your model of choice. It's going to take quite a large shift inside of 24 hours in order to get the heavier snows over the coast.I know for me its gonna be the rain and the occasional higher wind gusts. Im not expecting one flake with this storm. Especially with its less than ideal track, maybe NYC can get its first inch but i feel even that is a long shot ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro is a tick West and a tick stronger though 33 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I know for me its gonna be the rain and the occasional higher wind gusts. Im not expecting one flake with this storm. Especially with its less than ideal track, maybe NYC can get its first inch but i feel even that is a long shot ATM I think everyone sees flakes along the coast as the low occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NW Philly burbs flip to snow between 18-21z. The 850mb freezing line runs near the Warren County NJ border and then due West once near the Trenton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Very nice subtropical signature on the 12z GFS. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14120812/36.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro is a tick West and a tick stronger though 33 hrs. Typically in these types of storms you can expect the EURO to follow the UKMET fairly closely at this stage of the game but it could have not as much of the backend stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The low is tucked right into the Long Island coast, a bit west of 00z. Not what you wanted to see for back end snows on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The low is tucked right into the Long Island coast, a bit west of 00z. Not what you wanted to see for back end snows on the coast. It should be interesting to see what happens with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The mixing layer height on the 12z NAM and GFS bufkit tap into 50kt+ winds between 950mb and 975mb tomorrow afternoon at LGA, JFK, and EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Some decent back end snows on Wednesday in Western areas and then spreading eastward towards the city by the afternoon. Similar to the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 So we have the EURO, GGEM, UKMET, and NAM all advertising good back end snows for most of the area west of Long Island...someone will be pleased with a 2-4" surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The track of the mid-level centers is really killing us. The track of the surface low would normally be fine, but the 700mb low basically sits right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 So we have the EURO, GGEM, UKMET, and NAM all advertising good back end snows for most of the area west of Long Island...someone will be pleased with a 2-4" surprise. Doubt the city or central jersey gets 2-4". Maybe an inch at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Onto the more important features with this storm, the Euro has 45kt+ winds over the entire area, including well inland at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 this run looks more impressive than 0z for snow potential under the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 1.8" of water in under 12 hours in some places on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 What a weenie run on the 12z JMA, snowing well into Thursday and has a lot of precip falling on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The high res Euro shows areas getting roughly 0.25-0.50" water equivlent depending on your location with the back end snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Most similar analog to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 JMA still snowing on Friday morning, top ten weenie run of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Most similar analog to this storm? 1/16/83 looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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