IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is nothing even close to that day. For one we don't have and record breaking AO of -4.266 for the month. Compare the setup at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 When you close off at H5 like that you're dealing with a horse of a different color. 2/26/10 basically snowed itself out overhead. Think of it the same way you do a cut off low in Spring. The airmass and atmospheric pattern for that storm couldn't be more different from what we're dealing with currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Compare the setup at H5. Yeah, compare the setup at one tiny slice of the atmospheric column and make a comparison to a past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Canadian is even more amplified than its 00z run now through 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Surface low over Cape May at 90 hours ... widespread very heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah, compare the setup at one tiny slice of the atmospheric column and make a comparison to a past event.Well no two setups are ever going to be a complete match. The comparison is based purely on the closed 500mb low occluding to our northeast, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GGEM is right over coastal NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1002mb surface low goes directly over NYC on the Canadian. Not only is warm but the storm never drops its pressure like previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1002mb surface low goes directly over NYC on the Canadian. Not only is warm but the storm never drops its pressure like previous runs GGEM rides inland to Canada. HEAVY flooding rains into the ski slopes of NY, VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GGEM would be inches of rain followed by dry slot for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It looks like a lot of rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It has roughy 1" plus this weekend and 2" plus for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 There is slightly more interaction with polar disturbance near the Great Lakes on the 12z GGEM. Temps are crashing more around it. But the inland track brings more warmth to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Things will continue to change nothing is set in stone at all. We'll see if Euro follows GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 850's are actually decently cold for places Upstate and into NE PA. Could be a mix or sleet up there for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well the positive is at least we're looking at a nice storm to track. Hopefully we'll get more of them when the pattern is more favorable for snow since this one looks like it will have trouble bringing snow even to interior NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be fair, I think all Isentropic Lift was saying is that the evolution at 500mb on the 00z Euro was similar to the 500mb evolution on 2/26/10. I actually think that's fair. An 00z Euro evolution but further east would be pretty similar. That's asking for a lot in this pattern though when there is a lot more room for this to cut west than that synoptic setup had. But the airmass in that event was actually very stale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be fair, I think all Isentropic Lift was saying is that the evolution at 500mb on the 00z Euro was similar to the 500mb evolution on 2/26/10. I actually think that's fair. An 00z Euro evolution but further east would be pretty similar. That's asking for a lot in this pattern though when there is a lot more room for this to cut west than that synoptic setup had. But the airmass in that event was actually very stale. Yes, exactly. Comparing a situation doesn't mean that you're forecasting a similar outcome either. Even if two setups were identical, you would never get the exact same outcome twice. Hence why you can get 50 ensemble members showing a dozen different outcomes based off the same data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yes, exactly. Comparing a situation doesn't mean that you're forecasting a similar outcome either. Even if two setups were identical, you would never get the exact same outcome twice. Hence why you can get 50 ensemble members showing a dozen different outcomes based off the same data. Difference with this storm is the air mass isnt so much stale, its the poorly placed HP E of maine which is giving an easterly fetch for anybody in the NE off the furnaced atlantic ocean. This certainly is not the storm for coastal locals at all, backlash snows or not which is a shot in the dark to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yes, exactly. Comparing a situation doesn't mean that you're forecasting a similar outcome either. Even if two setups were identical, you would never get the exact same outcome twice. Hence why you can get 50 ensemble members showing a dozen different outcomes based off the same data. But why even bring up that storm? I'm sure other storms evolved the same way that were rain storms for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looking closer ,at 12z GGEM, there might actually some snow at the beginning for the NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looking closer ,at 12z GGEM, there might actually some snow at the beginning for the NW suburbs. Yeah, airmass at start is pretty cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 But why even bring up that storm? I'm sure other storms evolved the same way that were rain storms for our area. What's your point? I think I've made it very clear as to why I made the comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I would keep an eye on the HP placement and evolution over the next few runs. However it does look like there is nothing stopping this from cutting a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looking closer ,at 12z GGEM, there might actually some snow at the beginning for the NW suburbs. 850's are cold, the surface is warm, it looks like you have another warm layer in there as well. 925mb and 700mb are just coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I would keep an eye on the HP placement and evolution over the next few runs. However it does look like there is nothing stopping this from cutting a bit west. I wish that there was a better high placement for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Guessing the UKMET is similar to the GGEM? Hard to tell looking at 24 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 According to this, the GGEM does indeed have some heavy wet snow for parts of the area to start, although I don't know if it's smart enough to look at 700mb and 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 According to this, the GGEM does indeed have some heavy wet snow for parts of the area to start, although I don't know if it's smart enough to look at 700mb and 925mb. Yup, quick thump on the front end....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nasty ice storm for parts of the far interior if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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