SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NAM depiction at 42-45 makes little sense to me...the 700mb low is basically over NYC but the CCB is too far east...if that 700mb low is right then the snow is likely over AVP/ABE/PHL but not NYC...I'd be very woried bout PHL if this setup verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z NAM has some rather strong surface winds over much of the area on Tuesday. Looks like 20-30kts. Enough for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NAM depiction at 42-45 makes little sense to me...the 700mb low is basically over NYC but the CCB is too far east...if that 700mb low is right then the snow is likely over AVP/ABE/PHL but not NYC...I'd be very woried bout PHL if this setup verified As I stated earlier, it looks real close for NYC with the 700mb drying. Ideally, we want this to be about 25-30 miles East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 One heck of a snowy CCB in EPA/NJ on the 12z NAM...prob verbatim someone gets 2-4" or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Still snowing at hr.54 in the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 One heck of a snowy CCB in EPA/NJ on the 12z NAM...prob verbatim someone gets 2-4" or so... This is NAM 12hr QPF from 06z to 18z Wednesday, some areas would get a warning criteria snowfall if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Lets see what the RGEM shows, its been somewhat poor this year beyond 30 hours and has made big shifts inside of that range so it may not get into reliable territory til 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The drying on the 4k NAM is much more pronounced. It just has some light activity after 00z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 As I stated earlier, it looks real close for NYC with the 700mb drying. Ideally, we want this to be about 25-30 miles East as i quoted before in the obs thread..there is now a chance that this actually makes a run for the benchmark and occludes, basically stalling the ccb band right over the city for a while.if that happens my friends then it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Estimating looks like most of NJ/E PA gets between 0.4" and 0.6" QPF within the CCB as frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 One thing for sure, it will be absoutely ripping around this time tommorrow, one heck of a storm on the 09z SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 4k NAM total snowfall through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Who's Yanksfan? It's been over a year since I changed my name. It's not that I wasn't paying attention, I just didn't see it. Ignore them, yes a few years ago u where a pain in the ass sometimes, but u have changed big time . U contribute a lot to these threads and yet still people have issues with u . I don't get it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The RGEM is way west....but again, beyond its reliable range...it has come east quite a bit inside of 24-30 hours from where it was back at 48...it was the most west model...I'd wait on making any calls for the CCB til we see the Euro and maybe the RGEM tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z RGEM has a good amount of Freezing rain for the interior at the start tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z GFS looks faster than the NAM bringing in the rain sooner. Looks like the PGFS is also running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z RGEM has a good amount of Freezing rain for the interior at the start tomorrow morning It also gives FZRA or PL to LGA into NYC 18-22Z today...I'm not sure if thats right with winds going 060 but its interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 700mb low tracks inland over NJ so after the initial burst you're going to have mid-level drying. On the other hand, it will get the stronger winds further inland. 60kt+ winds at 925mb on the GFS into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If we can somehow get the 700mb low to track over Long Island instead of NJ then the Western 2/3rds of the area would be in a favorable spot for snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like the PGFS is just a tick east of the GFS. Closes off at H5 over Western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If the 700mb low tracks inland over NJ then this will end up being about 12 hours of intense rain and wind, followed by dry slot for the coastal sections of NJ and NYC with big snows for the Poconos and Upstate NY on Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. If that 700mb low were to track about 30-40 miles further southeast, it would keep the 700mb dry layer more out towards Suffolk County and SNE while most of NJ, the LHV, and NYC received several inches of snow after the initial rain. It's a really tough call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If the 700mb low tracks inland over NJ then this will end up being about 12 hours of intense rain and wind, followed by dry slot for the coastal sections of NJ and NYC with big snows for the Poconos and Upstate NY on Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. If that 700mb low were to track about 30-40 miles further southeast, it would keep the 700mb dry layer more out towards Suffolk County and SNE while most of NJ, the LHV, and NYC received several inches of snow after the initial rain. It's a really tough call right now thats why this storm will have a few surprises - we had one already in coastal southern NJ - with Mount Holly caught with their pants down and then when they did the update at 8:45 they mentioned only slight chance of snow and rain showers and it was already accumulating in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If we can somehow get the 700mb low to track over Long Island instead of NJ then the Western 2/3rds of the area would be in a favorable spot for snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think we are just a bit too far east, but this is the very setup I talked about when someone asked the other day where NYC can see snows behind a system...the negatively tiled 500mb trof with a not so noticeable or intense surface low off to the northeast...someone in EPA or WRN NJ may be surprised by snow in the 39-48 hour range....12/11/93 and 12/14/10 were the 2 other examples I mentioned...the setup is similar at 500mb to 93 but everything is shifted west 70-120 mile...less cold air is in place and the 500mb signature is not as strong....that snow band was also 30-50 miles wide which is probably what will happen here. The GFS 700mb low and the 500 signature at 42-48 hours look fairly strong, the GFS is probably underdoing the amount of QPF that will be in ERN PA and WRN NJ...the NAM at the same time may be overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Very strong mid-level frontogenesis with easterly jet for heavy rain early tomorrow afternoon.This also means more winds aloft can bring brought down to the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z GFS looks faster than the NAM bringing in the rain sooner. Looks like the PGFS is also running. Yeah the GFS has the heavy stuff outta here by early afternoon. Light precip remains all the way through wednesday night but the main show would be between 1am and 1pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12Z UKMET has some snows for Wednesday night over the Western half of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z UKMET has very intense winds just above the surface for a period tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12Z UKMET has some snows for Wednesday night over the Western half of the area. LMAO. You're funny leaving out the whole run. UKMET has the CCB right over NYC. Here is hours 48-72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm worried about those winds especially if there's any convective elements and partial instability. I could see where we get some isolated 65-70 mph gusts along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 LMAO. You're funny leaving out the whole run. UKMET has the CCB right over NYC. Here is hours 48-72: NYC receives a scraping. What was wrong with my post? I specifically referenced a particular time table. Most of it is focused over NNJ. You think every one of my posts is centered around my backyard. Open your eyes and read for once in your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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