bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS went even more subtropical on its latest run. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14120806/42.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Everyone might want to take a look at the radar to the south...an area of precip is trying to stream in from the SE (the RGEM caught this) ACY is currently snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Everyone might want to take a look at the radar to the south...an area of precip is trying to stream in from the SE (the RGEM caught this) ACY is currently snowing. Surprise # 1 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Everyone might want to take a look at the radar to the south...an area of precip is trying to stream in from the SE (the RGEM caught this) ACY is currently snowing. ACY report light snow at 33 degrees: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Highly doubt it, but would be funny if KACY recorded more snow than KNYC for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ACY report light snow at 33 degrees: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KACY looks like a mix at Seaside http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Surprise # 1 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 All the models had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Highly doubt it, but would be funny if KACY recorded more snow than KNYC for this storm. Wont be that hard if AC records anything and NYC gets 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 All the models had that. It's typical to see light rain/drizzle with onshore flow well in advance of coastal storms. It just happens to be cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 another thing to watch on this Seaside webcam - is the water is already approaching the boardwalk in spots http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This storm is indeeed very interesting. To think that it will hang around all week is pretty wild. That said, is there any chance that 850's crash towards the coast and meaningful precipitation (snow) not currently modeled gets thrown back to the SW of the low near ou area towards the end of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's typical to see light rain/drizzle with onshore flow well in advance of coastal storms. It just happens to be cold enough to snow. That LLJ tomorrow around 15-18z looks good for gusts in the 50-60 mph range especially right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 All the models had that. Well Mt. Holly was forecasting partly sunny - explain that ??? so surprise surprise surprise - also bust # 1 NJZ024-082100- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OCEAN CITY 630 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Don't see an obs thread yet.. Light snow all of a sudden in point pleasant.. Sticking to all surface sans payment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well Mt. Holly was forecasting partly sunny - explain that ??? NJZ024-082100- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OCEAN CITY 630 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. TONIGHT SHOWERS. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY...RAIN Take a look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I made an observation thread boys... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45087-december-8-11th-major-east-coast-storm-observation-thread/ The best snow accumulations should be in the higher elevations of northeast PA and then up towards Upstate NY and into New England. With that being said, the Euro is showing the potential for some snow closer to the city as the system occludes near the eastern end of Long Island. The inflated WxBell snow maps show a foot plus for places like Sussex and Western Passaic Counties and points North. While that's likely overdone, I do think the snowfall potential is being slightly underplayed in those areas. Regardless, this looks like a high impact storm with strong gusty winds, coastal flooding, potentially flooding rains, snow in places and even some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Take a look at the models. gfs012hr_sfc_ptyp.gif gfs_namer_012_precip_p06.gif you are misssing the point - the general public reads the NWS forecast which was partly sunny for this morning along the Ocean County coast - so it was a surprise and a bust plus there was no mention of snow at all today NJZ024-082100- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OCEAN CITY 630 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Don't see an obs thread yet.. Light snow all of a sudden in point pleasant.. Sticking to all surface sans payment. There was on obs thread..now we have 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There was on obs thread..now we have 2 thats because Yanksfan isn't paying attention this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 you are misssing the point - the general public reads the NWS forecast which was partly sunny for this morning along the Ocean County coast - so it was a surprise and a bust plus there was no mention of snow at all today NJZ024-082100- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OCEAN CITY 630 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. There was no surprise if you were looking at model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 thats because Yanksfan isn't paying attention this morning Who's Yanksfan? It's been over a year since I changed my name. It's not that I wasn't paying attention, I just didn't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 12z NAM has some spotty activity in the area after 01z and temps could support frozen in spots until about 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12z NAM, 700mb dry slot moves in around 00z Tuesday for the city and Long Island. That dry slot looks to be mostly East of the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Low occludes south of Long Island with mid-level drying pushing well north into SNE. Meanwhile the CCB is nailing most of NJ, eastern PA, Southeast Upstate NY and interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 850mb freezling line runs from about KSWF south to Oakland, NJ, then SE towards the Verrazano Bridge, through Sandy Hook and off the NJ coast. This could be snow in Staten Island and Rain in Brooklyn, it's that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 850mb freezling line runs from about KSWF south to Oakland, NJ, then SE towards the Verrazano Bridge, through Sandy Hook and off the NJ coast. This could be snow in Staten Island and Rain in Brooklyn, it's that close. What period are you referring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By hour 45, the 850mb freezing line has pushed further East, now with most of Nassau County and SW portions of Suffolk County below freezing. This is an amazing run for the Poconos and the higher elevations of NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 What period are you referring? Hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Most of New England gets screwed after the initial burst of rain on Tuesday as the dry air at 700mb pushes well into NNE. Meanwhile, Western areas of our sub-forum are getting crushed well into Wednesday by heavy snow. It's real close for the city, they seem to waffle on the edge of the dryer air as the low meanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hour 45 12k NAM, most areas flip between hour 42 & 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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